Chapter 5 Flashcards
Market value of any investment
Expected returns discounted at investors required rate of return
Ke (dividends constant)
D0/P0
P0
Price ex dividend
KE with dividend growth at g
ke = D0(1+g)/P0 + g
Dividend valuation model flaws
- g must be less than ke, if equal, share price becomes infinitely high. growth rate to perpetuity this high impossible
- In practice growth rates vary
During the period after announcement of dividend but before payment, prices…
Rise in anticipation of payment - share is cum div
When does a share go ‘ex-div’
Shortly before paid, anyone acquire afterwards will not receive the dividend
g can be calculated using which function
POWER
Input to power function
Most recent div/oldest dividend, 1/time period of growth
Garden growth model - g is calculated by
r * b
r = current accounting rate of return
b = proportion of profits retains
Accounting rate of return
profit after tax as percentage of opening capital employed (opening balance sheet values)
Issues with garden growth model
relies on accounting profits
assumes r and b are constants
inflation can distort accounting rate of return
assumes all new finance from equity
Issues with dividend valuation model - underlying assumptions
Assumes shares have value because of dividends - high tax rate investors likely prefer capital gains
Assumes dividends either don’t grow or grow constantly
Estimates of future dividends based on historical data - ignores future market conditions, investor confidence, economic conditions
Issues with dividend valuation model - data used
Share price is used, these can change daily and are not always rationally or efficiently
Issues with dividend valuation model - growth in future dividends
More likely linked to growth in earnings than to past dividends, but earnings do not feature?