Chapter 4: Reasons For Belief & Doubt

Question 1

What is it when claims conflict?

Answer 1

Claims conflicting means when two exact claims conflict, basically in one claim the person is saying this DID happen, but in the other claim the person is saying this DID NOT happen.

Question 2

Let’s suppose your confronted with another conflict, between a claim and your background info..What would this mean?

Answer 2

For example, someone claims they saw a baby bench press a 500kg weight? taking into consideration about you background info you know about babies and their strength you would say it’s a very VERY low chance of this occurring…. so this means the more background info the claim conflicts the more reason we have to doubt it. However, lets say preet and Jaismen are late for school but they were never late in the past 5 years, so it may seem highly unlikely but there is a possibility. Sometimes our background info may be wrong…

Question 3

There are two types of conflicts name them

Answer 3

Inconsistent and contradictories

Question 4

What is inconsistent conflicts

Answer 4

2 statements can be inconsistent – i.e. can’t both be true, but could both be false. E.g. “Today is Monday” and “Today is Wednesday” are inconsistent

Question 5

What is contradictories

Answer 5

2 statements can be contradictories - i.e. can’t both be true, but (also) can’t both be false. E.g. “There is a Covid-19 virus” and “There is not a Covid-19 virus” are contradictories.

Question 6

How should we measure our belief?

Answer 6

We should measure our belief according to the strength of reasons or evidence provided, meaning we should proportion our beliefs to the evidence.

Question 7

Define background info..

Answer 7

Background info is known as the large collection of well supported beliefs that we rely on to inform us about our actions and choices. It consists of basic facts and everyday things and beliefs, based on our personal observations and authority.

Question 8

What is an expert?

Answer 8

Someone who is more knowledgeable in a particular subject area or field than most others are.

Question 9

When to doubt an expert..

Answer 9

If a claim conflicts with expert opinion, we have good reason to doubt it.

• Example: ‘The earth is about 10,000 years old.’
  When experts disagree over a claim, we have good reason to withhold judgement.
• Prof. Smith: ‘It’s clear that butter is worse for
  you than margarine.’
• Prof. Sehdev: ‘The evidence about butter versus
  margarine is quite mixed.

Question 10

When unsupported claims that have no premises aren’t provided but were often justified into believing because an expert tells us too, why is that?

Answer 10

We often believe experts because of their knowledge in certain areas compared to others, as they’re more likely to be right as they have more access to info than we do and they are better at judging that info.

Question 11

When there is a disagreement about a claim between relevant experts do we have good reason to doubt it?

Answer 11

Yes we do…

Question 12

What is the appeal to authority fallacy?

Answer 12

The fallacy of relying on the opinion of someone who deemed to be an expert who is in fact NOT an expert…

Question 13

The fallacious appeal to authority usually happens in two ways…discuss them.

Answer 13

We may find ourselves believing an expert in every situation he or she speaks about, for example just because they are a expert in one topic that does not mean they know everything, if a scientist who gas expertise with detecting global warming may not have expertise in what we can or should do about global warming…

Secondly…we can regard a non expert as an expert, for example, we forget that a non-expert with sexual appeal, fame, status, prestige, is still a non-expert just because they’re famous it does not mean they’re an expert.

Question 14

How can we tell if someone is a true expert?

Answer 14

To be considered an expert they must have shown they can assess relevant evidence and arguments and arrive at well supported conclusions in a particular field…

Two indictors that are considered minimal pre-reqs for being considered an expert

1. Education and training from reputable programs or schools in the relevant field, usually evidence gathered from degrees
2. Experience in making reliable judgements in the field, generally the more years of experience the better.

Two additional indictors
1. Reputation among peers
2. Professional accomplishments

Question 15

How do we now if an expert is being bias?

Answer 15

Most obvious cases bias is clear when an expert is being paid by a special interest group or corporations to provide their “opinion.” We can also suspect bias when the expert expresses a vert strong belief in a claim even though there is no evidence to support it or when the expert stands to gain financially from the actions or policies…

Question 16

Can you trust personal experience to reveal the truth?

Answer 16

yes, its reasonable to accept the evidence provided by personal experience only if there’s no good reason to doubt it.

Question 17

Factors that can give us good reason to doubt the
reliability of personal experience…

Answer 17

1. Impairment
2. Expectation
3. Innumeracy

Question 18

Explain Impairment

Answer 18

If our perceptual powers are somehow impaired, we have reason to doubt them.

The following are reasons to doubt the trustworthiness of what we experience.

• Situation: too dark, too bright, too hazy, too noisy
• Senses: sick, injured, tired, stressed, excited,
  drugged, distracted, disoriented, drunk

Question 19

Explain Expectation

Answer 19

We often perceive exactly what we expect,
regardless of whether there’s really anything to detect. For example we may perceive formless stimuli, clouds, smoke, white noise, blurry photos, in the formlessness we may see or hear exactly what we expect…this is also called pareidolia.

Question 20

Explain Innumeracy

Answer 20

Innumeracy means when we make quick off the curs judgements about the chances of something happening, it basically means being bad at numbers..

Question 21

Gambler’s Fallacy

Answer 21

The error of thinking that previous events can affect the probabilities in the random event at hand

Question 22

Fooling ourselves, what are the 3 common and serious mistakes

Answer 22

1. Resisting contrary evidence
2. Looking only for confirming evidence
3. Preferring available evidence

Question 23

Explain resisting contrary evidence

Answer 23

We resist evidence that flies in the face of our
cherished beliefs. This can be psychologically
comforting, but it can prevent any
further search for knowledge. Often, you will see the evidence you want to see (and be blind to what
you don’t want to see).

For example: If you want to believe in ghosts, you may mis-read (or mis- remember) evidence to the contrary. You may tend to ignore evidence that conflicts with political beliefs you hold. A scientist may be so committed to her own theory that she finds reasons to reject contrary evidence.

Question 24

What’s confirmation bias

Answer 24

The psychological tendency to seek out and remember info that confirms what we already believe

Question 25

Explain looking only for confirming evidence

Answer 25

• We often seek out and use only confirming evidence. This is known as confirming bias or confirmation bias. The result: we can end up accepting a claim that’s not true. If I show you 100 pieces of evidence, pointing in different directions, which ones will you read and remember? Often, you will remember more vividly the evidence that
  supports your preferred claim.

More examples:
* Why do so many people come to believe in ‘the
gamblers fallacy? Perhaps because they remember the times that way of thinking ‘worked’, and forget all the many times it didn’t!

Question 26

Explain REFERRING AVAILABLE EVIDENCE

Answer 26

Availability error: We rely on evidence because it’s memorable or striking, or rather, because it is psychologically ‘available’.

For example:
* ‘Shark attacks are common.’
* ‘Air travel just isn’t safe.’
– Not true. But it’s easy to think of scary data!