Chapter 3 - Environment and Uncertainty Flashcards

1
Q

PEST

LoNGPEST

A

Political Economical Social Technological

&

LoCAL
National
Global

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2
Q

PEST limitations

A

External environment is more dynamic
Becomes time consuming and costly to update
Should help to identify key opportunities and threats (not just influencing factors)
Bounded rationality implies the Org likely misses something
Environment is influence by internal actions as well

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3
Q

Porter’s 5 forces

A
Rivalry
Consumer power
Supplier power
Substitutes
Entrants
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4
Q

Barriers for new entrants

A
Economies of scale
Product differentiation
Capital requirements
Switching costs
Access to distribution channels
Access to resources
Expected retaliation by competitors
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5
Q

Customer power

A
volume
criticality to customer
standard or special item
customer's own profitability
ability to bypass
skills of purchasing staff
importance of quality to customer
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6
Q

Bargaining of suppliers

A
number of suppliers
new entrants
number of customers
substitution
switching costs
differentiated product
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7
Q

Rivalry

A
market growth
market structure
capacity
cost structure
uncertainty
exit barriers
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8
Q

5 forces by porter limits

A

firms rather collaborate than compete
industry vs firm (a firm might perform different than the whole industry)
dynamic industries - R&D can change industries
defining the industry - boarders are not clear

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9
Q

Definition of competitor analysis

A

Identification and quantification of real strength and weaknesses.

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10
Q

Key competitor analysis questions

A
objectives
strategy
assumptions
resources and competences
response profile
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11
Q

Environment Change Triggers

indirect: 5
direct: 3

A

indirect

  • economic cycle
  • regulatory change
  • change customer expectations
  • technology changes
  • changed communication

direct

  • new entrants
  • intenser competition
  • change supply chain
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12
Q

General Driver for Environmental Change

A

globalisation
natural environment
changing workplace structure
advanced communication technology

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13
Q

Priorisation change drivers

A

importance vs urgency

low-low: other issues (monitor)

low-high: lower priority (monitor & analyse)

high-low: higher priority (monitor, analyse, contingency)

high-high: major issue (highest priority - analyse in detail and develop a strategy)

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14
Q

Concept for deal with risk

A

TARA

Transfer, Accept, Reduce, Avoid

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15
Q

Environmental analysis: why it matters

A

opportunities and threats
a lot of variety and hard to understand
with audits identify influencing factors
need of ongoing environmental scanning

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16
Q

Definition uncertainty

A

Inability to predict the outcome from an activity due to a lack of information about the required input/output relationship or about the environment within which the activity takes place.

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17
Q

Complexity and Dynamism

A

Complexity: variety of influences, knowledge, interconnections

Dynamism: changing environments

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18
Q

Impact of uncertainty

A
planning horizon will be shortened
strategies might be conservative
emergent strategies might be encouraged
increased information needs
might follow multiple strategies
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19
Q

Real options (3)
as well occurring as (2)
considerations (3)

A

follow-on
option to abandon
option to wait

input mix option: used different combinations of input factors
output mix option: select different outputs from same raw material

level uncertainty
duration of option
interest rates

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20
Q

Black Scholes Model

A

A mathematical model of a financial market containing derivative investment instruments. From the model, one can deduce the Black–Scholes formula, which gives a theoretical estimate of the price of a option.

21
Q

Gap analysis definition and 2 Q’s

A

A comparison between an entities ultimate objective and the expected performance from projects, both planned and under way, identifying means by which identified difference or gap might be filled.

What are the targets?
What would the Org achieve as is?

22
Q

Different gaps (4)

A

demand
distribution (lack of access)
product (failure or product decisions)
competitive (failing price or promotion)

23
Q

4P’s of marketing mix

A

product
price
place
promotion

24
Q

Filling the gap (2)

A

improved efficiency

growth

25
Q

Issues with gap analysis

A

inflation
risk profile
filling the gap at any costs

26
Q

Forecasting vs Projection definition

A

Projection is an expected future trend pattern obtained by extrapolation. it is principally concerned with quantitative factors whereas a forecast includes judgements to predict future events and their quantification for planning purposes.

27
Q

Statistical Projections

Usage and Con’s

A

trend analysis
time series analysis

regression analysis
econometrics (leading indicator, span between indicator and the market change)

Con's:
past relationship
relationship assumed where none exists
no considering special events
variations of business cycles
underestimation of uncertainty
potential bias (inappropriate assumptions or deliberate actions)
28
Q

Judgmental Forecasts

A

individual forecasts
Genius forecasts

likely driven by recent experience - cheap to get

29
Q

Consensus forecast

A
Jury forecasts: panel of experts
Think tank: unstructured, speculative
Delphi: anonymous, questionnaire (costly)
Brainstorming
Derived demand: costly and complex
30
Q

Market forecast

A

The forecast for the market as a whole.

31
Q

Sales Potential

A

An estimate of the part of the market that is within the possible reach of a proudct.

32
Q

Scenario planning

A

Building plausible views about how the business environment of an organisation might develop in the future, based on sets of key drivers for change about which there isa high level of uncertainty.

33
Q

10 steps in scenario planning

A
define scope
identify major stakeholders
basic trends
key uncertainties
initial scenario for uncertainties
check consistency
learning scenarios (expand to full version), involve mgmt
Identify research needs
develop quantitative models
use scenario to develop competitive strategy
34
Q

marco scenario

A

macro eco or political scenario

35
Q

The uses of scenarios

A

examine external environment
conduct industry analysis
compare competencies and capabilities with future needs for the different scenarios
As future unfolds and scenarios fall of the table, adopt strat options

36
Q

Industry scenarios

A

internal view of future industry structure

37
Q

Choosing scenarios

A
A. Assume the most probable
B. Hope for the best
C. Hedge
D. Flexibility
E. Influence
38
Q

Scenario vs rational plan

A

Scenarios do not pretend to predict a particular outcome.

39
Q

LRP

A

Goal based

Issue based

40
Q

Foresight

A

Identifying possible ways in which the future can develop (technology, R&D)

41
Q

5 C’s in foresight

A

Communication: multiple departments
Concentration: focus on the long term
Co-ordination: among departments and development plans
Consensus: creating about priorities
Commitment: to make the necessary changes

42
Q

Stages for foresight projects (possibilities)

A

monitoring - current trends
analysis - understand change drivers
projection - anticipate the future
transformation - draw implications

43
Q

Techniques to improve foresight

A
  • scenario planning
  • issues analysis
  • Delphi method
  • Cross-impact analysis (address interdependencies)
  • Morphological analysis: create ranges of opportunities
  • Relevance trees: future state backwards based on actions, events, circumstance required to be in place
  • Visioning: Potential future stage discussion
  • Opportunity mapping: analyze for gaps
  • Trend extrapolation
  • Role-playing
44
Q

Game theory

A

Strategy as interactions between organizations and its competitors

45
Q

Requires competitor analysis

A

gain insight into strategies and future decisions
predict competitors likely reactions
determine competitors action influencing own firm

46
Q

Strategic intelligence

A

What a company needs to know about its business environment to enable it to anticipate e change and design appropriate strategies that will create business value for customers and be profitable in new markets and new industries in the future.

47
Q

Sources of strategic intelligence

A

internal: sales force, market research, management info sys
external: media, export consultants, trade journals, trade associations, Government business development agencies, patent office, stockbrokers, special consultancies, internet, annual reports of competitors

48
Q

Environment Databases

A

MIS
Newspapers
Public databases
Legislation and Regulations updates

Data:
competitive
economic
political
legal
social
technological
geographical
energy supply
stakeholder data
49
Q

Market research establishes:

A

size of potential market
potential market segmentation
main competitors
customer behaviour (these are CSF)