Chapter 2: Utility Theory Flashcards
Expected Utility Theorem
- A function, U(w) can be constructed representing an investor’s utility of wealth, w, at some future date
- Decisions are made on the basis of maximising the expected value of utility under the investor’s particular beliefs about the probability of different outcomes.
4 Axioms of utility theorem
- Comparability
- Transitivity
- Independence
- Certainty equivalence
Comparability
An investor can state a preference between all available certain outcomes.
Transitivity
If A is preferred to B and B is preferred to C, then A is preferred to C.
Independence
If an investor is indifferent between two certain outcomes, A and B, then he is also indifferent between the following two gambles:
- A with probability p and C with probability (1-p)
- B with probability p and C with probability (1-p)
Certainty Equivalence
Suppose A is preferred to B, and B is preferred to C.
Then there is a unique probability, p, such that the investor is indifferent between B and a gamble giving A with probability p and C with probability (1-p).
B is known as the certainty equivalent of the gamble.
Non-satiation
The principle of assuming that people prefer more wealth to less.
U’(w)>0
Risk Averse investor
Values an incremental increase in wealth less highly than an incremental decrease and will reject a fair gamble.
U’‘(w)<0
Risk-seeking investor
Values incremental increase in wealth more highly than an incremental decrease and will seek a fair gamble.
U’‘(w)>0
Risk-neutral investor
Indifferent between a fair gamble and the status quo.
U’‘(w)=0
Absolute risk aversion
A(w) = -U’‘(w)/U’(w)
Relative risk aversion
R(w) = -w U’‘(w)/U’(w)
State-dependent utility functions
Used to model the situation where there is a discontinuous change in the state of the investor at a certain level of wealth.
Limitations of utility theory (3)
- We need to know the precise form and shape of the individual’s utility function.
- The theorem cannot be applied separately to each of several sets of risky choices facing an individual.
- For corporate risk management, it may not be possible to consider a utility function for the firm as though the firm was an individual.