Chapter 2: Sources Of Information: Evaluating, Finding, and Reading Information Flashcards
What are the three sources if evidence for ppls beliefs??
experience, intuition and authority
One should not base beliefs solely on ____?
personal experiences
What the heck is a comparison group?
L> why is it important?
- allows you to compare what would happen both with and without the thing you are interested in.
L> important for when you base on personal exp…you need a systematic comparison
Does personal experience have a comparison group?
NO
Basing conclusions on personal experience is problematic because life doesn’t offer a ____. Basing conclusions on systematic data collection does offer a ___.
- comparison group x 2
Confounds??
- they occur when you think one thing causes an outcome but intact other things changed too so it is not clear what the cause really was..
How does research tackle confounds vs Real life?
- they use careful controls to be sure they are changing only one factor at a time.
L>in real life it is hard to isolate variable to solve cofounds issues.
___ Research is better than experience!
controlled
Confederate??
- an actor playing a role for the researchers experiment
How exactly would a controlled experiment be set up to avoid confounds?(2)
L> what do subjects offer/what do researchers do with this?
- conditions are set up such that at least ONE comparison group can avoid confounds
- subjects can only offer their subjective view and the researcher compares these to their larger view.
- confounds can also be controlled by everyone starting out equally but the various groups being separate in testing type.
Sometimes our personal experience does not line up with ____
research
Personal experiences are very powerful and can ____ us to the lessons of more rigorous research.
BLIND
At times someones personal experience can be an ____ to the research findings.
- exception
L> which should not undermine the general research
Probabilistic???
- inferences are not expected to explain all cases all of the time. Instead conclusions from the research are meant to explain a certain proportion of the possible cases. (hopefully a high one)
ex: behavioural research
In practice what does probabilistic research mean?
- scientific conclusions of research are based on patterns that emerge only when comparison groups are setup and many ppl are tested.
Does a persons personal experience invalidate a general trend?
NO its just one point in the overall pattern
What do research results suggest?
- that there is a strong PROBABILITY …..the prediction is not perfect.
Intuition?
- people believe their intuition leads them to good conclusions and as a good source of info but it can lead us to make less effective decisions bc we are bias!
Intuition:
- we tend to believe what about others and ourselves?
- others are biased but we are right
Intuition:
- are we aware of it?
- no..
biases can sneak up on us and we can be unaware that we could be potentially become bias but are too busy or not motivated enough to correct and control for it .
What are the two categories of intuition based biases?
- Thinking the easy way
2. Thinking what we want to think
What is the solution to intuition biases?
- practice applying scientific principles to guard you against the pull of these biases.
Intuition:
1. Thinking the easy way? Explain!
L> It’s easier to believe an______ story than a ____story.
L> It’s more easy to pay attention to ___ and harder to attend to ____.
- intuition can lead to biases because some ideas are simply easier to believe than others and some info comes to mind more readily than others.
- easy, complex
- memorable
- everyday events
Can a good story be accurate?
- yes sometimes but be aware of the limitations of common sense…also when empirical research contradicts your common sense be ready to check yourself.
Intuition:
1. Thinking the Easy Way
L> The Present/Present Bias?
- it is hard for most people to notice what is absent; in contrast, it is easy to notice what is present.
Intuition: 1. Thinking the Easy Way L> The Pop-up Principle - aka? -what tends to guide our thinking? -memories?
- aka availability heuristic
- things that easily come to mind tend to guide our thinking
- when events or memories are vivid, recent or memorable they seem more correct and cause biases in our thinking.
- often we are too busy or too lazy to think beyond the easy answer….we decide the answer that came to mind easily must be correct.
Intuition:
1. Thinking the Easy Way
L> The Pop-up Principle
- ex?
ex: Dan Gilbert (2005)
L> stuck in a slow line at the grocery store….seems like I am always in this line…
** negative events pop into mind more easily than times when things go smoothly….
Thinking the easy way can mean taking what as the most correct thoughts?
our first thoughts