Chapter 2 - Macroeconomic performance Flashcards
What is economic growth?h
An increase in real GDP in an economy caused by an increase in AD and/or LRAS
What are the benefits of using national income statistics i.e Real GDP as a measure of economic performance? 4
1) Report card for a country
Performance over time can be analysed, useful for politicians to see if objectives of macroeconomic growth are being met
2) Used to enact, inform and evaluate economic policy
Statistics provide crucial information regarding ouput and living standards so policy makers know what to do.
If real gdp is low ; expansionary demand side policies
If GDP is increasing rapidly with inflation side effects ; Supply side policies
Can use statistics to evaluate success of policies, allowing for succesful policies to be used again OR alternatives if havent worked
3) Build forecasting models
Individuals, business and Gov can use national statistics to forecast using for example extrapolation. To make policies, influence investment decisions and other important for other countries whos economic performance is interpendant
4) Benchmark to evaluate standards of living.
A rise in national income is interpretated as a rise in living standards for all, and if long term this is indicator of economic prosperity. Can comapre with other countries to compare effectiveness of policies
What are some problems with using Real GDP as a measure of economic growth? 3
1) Large amount of data, varied sources, inaccuracies
This is why GDP figures are often revised
2) There exists an informal economy
This is unrecorded economic activity I.E unliscensed business, illegal activities, DIY work ETC.
Leads to inacurate unemployment figures and lower tax revenue, impacting gov spending
EXAMPLE = Italy and Greece estimated to have an informal sector of 25% GDP
3) Double counting in output method
Using output method to calculate real GDP is prone to error if primary sector output is double counted once manufactured in secondary sector; I.E mining of copper in primary sector, once sold adds to real GDP, then can be manufactured into copper wiring in secondary sector and is counted again.
To overcome problem, the final value of all goods and services is measured
What are some problems with using Real GDP as a measure of living standards? 7
1) Only measure changes in income
Big flaw as living standards consist of alot more than just income; health, education, infrastructure, enviroment, gender equality, freedom.
Can be argued that composite indicators are more effective such as HDI
2) Only accounts for quantity of output, not quality
Doesnt account for existence of negative externalities; air pollution, resource degredation ETC. these reduce living standards and are not accounted for in GDP.
Can use ‘Green GDP’ instead, where enviromental costs of growth are taken away from figure. Problem is politcal sensitivity
EXAMPLE = India and China, resource delpetion and pollutio since 1990s
3) No info regarding distribution of income
Increases in Real GDP may only benefit small % of population ; growth from one dominant sector. Poor may see no improvements in standard of living at all and absolute/relative poverty will not change
EXAMPLE = Nigeria oil, Botswana Diamond
4) Some increases in output do not boose living standards, nature of good
I.E Defence related goods. GDP will increase but living standards will not
5) Using nominal rather than real exchange rates
GDP tends to be converted into USD to provide international comparisons, but to do so real exchange rates are not used therefore there is no adjustment for purchasing power.
EXAMPLE; India has lower GDP per capita than USA however given how cheap goods/services are in india then incomes can go alot further.
Therefore Real GDP per capita data must be calculated using PPP adjusted exchange rates to get a real comparison of living standards between countries.
6) Doesnt account for remmitance income (income earned abroad by domestic worker that is sent back to family)
Income earned abroad will not count towards that countries GDP despite coming from that countries factor of production and likely being sent back to the country, providing a boost to living standards
7) Multi National Cooporations
Will earn money where they are based BUT will send the money home, meaning their profits count towards the country where they are located’s GDP however that country will not see any imrpovements in living standards through re-investment, job creation ETC as the MNC will likely send money back to home.
How can the problem of Remmitance Incomes nor being counted in Real GDP and MNCs profits being counted and not affecting living standards be overvome?
By using GNI, Gross National Income
This accounts for only the income generated by a countries factors of production, regardless of where they are. Therefore remitance income will be counted and MNC profit will not.
Why would a decrease / increase in interest rates, weaken / strengthen the exchange rates?
Hot money inflows and outlfows
What 2 diagrams can we use to show an increase in SHORT RUN economic growth?
see flashcard
A PPF curve with production moving toward final line
A Keynsian LRAS curve with AD shifting right towards Yfe
What are some actions the Gov could take to increase short run economic growht? (boost AD) 5
1) A cut in interest rates
-Reduce cost of borrowing -> increased real disposable income -> increased C
-Reduces rate of return on savings -> reduces MPS
-Reduce monthly payments for tracker or variable rate mortgages -> increasing real disposable income -> increased MPC
-Reduce cost of borrowing for firms -> reach required RoR on investment projects easier
2) Reduce marginal rate of income tax for lower tax bands or increase tax free allowance
-Increase disposable income
3) Reduce level of cooporation taax
-Increased retained profit -> increase MPI
4) Increase Gov spending
-Infrastucture, education, healthcare ETC
G is compement of AD, boost AD, multiplier affect; initial increase in spending will increase incomes in the economy faciliting further rounds in spending and income generation.
5) Weaken exchange rate
-Reduce interest rates, increase hot money outflows with savers looking for places to get better return, decreasing demand for £
-Increase money supply
-Sell domestic currency reserves
-Weakened rate will WIDEC, boosting revenue from exports,reduce spent on imports
What diagrams do we use to show an increase in long run economic growth?
see flashcard
PPC curve with shift in Curve, getting bigger
Classical model shift in LRAS
What are some actions the Gov could take to increase LR economic growth? (LRAS)
1) Goverment spending on education
-I.E apprenteship schemes, re-training or school curriculam
-Improves skills and therefore productivity of labour, boost human capital, improving quality of factors of production
2) Government spending on infrastructure
-Transport infrastucture; building new roads, trains airports etc
-Reduces costgs of preoduction for firms, boosting efficiency, improving quality of factors of production
3) Offer subsidies or tax allowances to incentivise firms to invest
Incentive to spend on new capital, upgrade machinery, build new factories
-Boost quantity of factors of production, and quality
4) Reduce marginal rate of income tax
Increase incentive to work harder as less income will be taxed, increasing producitvity of labour force. Incentivises economically inactive to get into work, boosting quantitity
5) Reduce cooporation tax
-Increases incentive for firms to invest as they have greater level of reatined profits
6) Privatisation
Creates a profit motive in industry, improving efficiency and promotes DE and investment. Competition imrpoves static efficiencies that imrpoves quality of facotrs of production, profit motive will attract more entrepreneurs, boosting quantity
7) Deregulation
Reduces costs of production for firms aswell as increases competition, incentiviing efficiency, boosting quality of factors of production
8) Trade Liberalisation
Removal of trade barriers, promoting global competition, forces domestic producers to imrpove to compete, incentivising efficiency and boosting quality of factors of production
What is the differnce between a demand side and supply side shock and what do they do?
‘Shocks’ refer to events that decrease AD or AS in an economy
Demand side = decreases AD (causes of recessions)
Supply side = decreases SRAS
What are some demand side shocks? (5) What diagram do we use?
+ real life examples
Diagram = Keynsian LRAS with AD shifting left
1) Housing or stock market crash ; Consumption
Conusmers are less wealthy -> reducing willingess to spend/consume -> negative demand side shock -> reduces C -> reduces AD -> ‘taking economy that may have been growing steadily and operating close to full employmeny to an equilibrium where vast spare capacity exists’ -> negative output gap -> depressing price from P1 to P2 -> reduction in growth from Y1 to Y2 -> firms react by reducing production I.E reducting in GDP
2) Sudden fall in investment
Causde by reduced business onfidence, firms forseeing a reduction in growth. They hold back on investment, reducing I, reducing AD
3) Fall in spending abroad on exports
Reduced export revenues
4) High exchange rates
SPICED
Worsening of trade balance of current account -> reducing export revenue -> AD shifts left
5) Banking or financial crisis
Catastrophic, especially with integrated globalised banking systems.
Banks are important financial intermediateries that bring lenders and borrowers together.
Banks fail -> less lending to individuals and firms -> loss of savings -> loss of assetts -> decrease in C and I
Real life examples:
-Coronavirus pandemic in 2020 -> countires shut down parts of economy -> deep recesions world wide
-Financial crisis of 2008
What are some supply side shocks? 2What diagrams do we use? + real life examples
diagram = classical model with shift left in SRAS, w no LRAS
1) Sudden increase in price of oil
Economy dependant on buying oil to fuel production -> increased costs of production for firms -> shifting SRAS left -> increasing cost push inflation -> STAGFLATION which si increases in infaltion beyond targets with decreases in growth
2) Rise in indirect taxes like VAT
Increased costs of production -> cost push inflation -> mayeb STAGFLATION
Real life examples:
-Germany entered recision in 2023, staglfation, caused byu increases in oil, food and energy prices due to Russia / Ukraine war
What are the benefits to an economy from economic growth? (3) increases in GDP. What country can we apply benefits of growth to?
1) Incomes rise
Because unemploymet falls as labour is derived demand -> wage bargaining is strong -> with higher profits firms are willing to accept higher wages -> material and non-material standards of living increase -> mulitplier effect of consumer spending can cause further increase in economic growth
2) Higher profits for firms
With more demand and higher incomes, firms can sell more, increasing revenues and profits. -> higher retained profits -> DE -> boosting Sr and LR economic growth
3) Fiscal dividend increase for the government
Greater tax from income tax, cooporation tax and expenditure tax like VAT -> more imports being sucked in, more tariff revenues -> greater fiscal dividend -> deleverage antional debts -> spending to tackle income inequality -> enabling SR and LR growth overtime
Country: China ; job creations, profits, fiscal benefits
What are the costs of economic growth? 5
1) Accerated deman pull inflation
-If AD is increasing faster than AS, there will be excessive pressure on existing factors of production, increasing demand pull inflation
Costs of inflation: Loss of international competitiveness, a fall in purchasing power, erosion of savings
2) Negative externaltities not accounted for
Increases in gorwth through increase in real GDP only account for quantity of output, not quality. The exisitence of negative externalities in production such as air pollution can lead to reduced living standards
3) Income inequality
Increases in GDP doiesnt mean incomes for all of society are increasing, could be one dominant sector therefore only those from that sector are beneftiing from the growth. Corrupt governance may prevent equal distribution of income, no improvements in lviing standards -> no improvenet or worseingin of income inequality and poverty
4) Rising incomes is only one part of living standards
Big flaw as living standards consist of alot more than just income; health, education, infrastructure, enviroment, gender equality, freedom.
Can be argued that composite indicators are more effective such as HDI
5) Can create/widen current accoun decifit
Higher inflation makes exports less internatioally competitive, reducing export reveneu, whil increasing sucking in of imports
Macroeconomic objective of balance of trade could be lost and problems with a current account deficit may occur.
What are the 3 evaluation points for Pros/cons of economic growth?
Baso how to make growth be good
1) Growth should be sustainable.
Without excessive inflationary pressure, without significant enviromental costs andiwhtout rtisk of resource depletion. Allowing future genrations to continue to benefit
2) Growth should be inclusive.
ALl citizens in economy shoudl benefit. Non-0corruopt governance essentiual
3) Growth should be sustained.
Where growth continues ovetime with no sharp contractions. Gowth must be balances, not confined to one sector and must come from both demand and supply side, ensuring any shocks can be absorbed.