Chapter 2 Flashcards
CO2 levels are higher than at any time in the?
Last 2 million years
Anthropogenic CO2 is identifiable how?
On average lighter than those naturally present in the atmosphere.
Global surface temperatures have increased faster since 1970 than in any other 50 year period over the…?
Last 2,000 years
Some aerosols have cooling effects, but this peaked in?
2020
For the greenhouse effect, which GHG is most important?
H2O
After H2O, which are the most important GHGs for contributions to warming?
CO2, CH4, N2O
How much of the atmosphere is H2O?
1-4%
CO2 from fossil fuels contributes what % of total GHG emissions?
Two thirds of
Pre-industrial CO2 versus current?
0.028% versus 0.041%
GHG with longest life
PFCs - 50,000 years
Global warming Potential (GWP) of the different GHGs over 100 years?
CO2 - 1
CH4 - 28
N2O - 273
HFCs - -14,600
PFCs - 7,380
SF7 - 25,200
NF3 - 17,400
Lifetimes of different GHGs
CO2 - no figure can be given as varies
CH4 - 12 years
N2O - 109 years
HFCs - 228 years
PFCs - 50,000 years
SF6 - 3,200 years
NF3 - 569 years
What % of currently emitted CO2 is rapidly taken up by oceans and the biosphere?
50%
What is enhanced rock weathering?
Hybrid strategy which involves grinding rocks artificially so that the reaction between silicate rocks and CO2 is accelerated, being stored in the deep ocean
CO2 budget left according to Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022 report for 1.5C?
50% chance: 250bn tonnes (6 years of current emissions); but only 150bn tonnes for a 67% chance
Which UK act requires governments sets a 5 year limit / carbon budget on the UK’s emissions to achieve 2050 net zero?
UK Climate Change Act 2008. Budgets set by independent adviser, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) based on latest science and impact on UK’s cost competitiveness, fuel poverty, fiscal balance, and national/international responsibilities.
What is the planetary boundary for climate change?
CO2 of 350 ppm (0.035%), within which natural processes are able to self-regulate and absorb deviations
How many of how many planetary boundaries have been exceeded?
6 of 9
What is solar radiation modification?
Spraying of cooling sulphate aerosols into the atmosphere to reflect solar radiation away from Earth. However, concerns this disrupts water cycle and is linked to weakened monsoons and the melting of the Tibetan glaciers. Also air pollution health concerns.
What is radiative forcing?
Net increase in energy within the Earth and atmosphere system
What is the name given the climate scenarios scientists use to simulate different plaidable scenarios of emissions?
Representative Concentratioj Pathways (RCPs). E.g. RCP8.5 means 8.5W per m2 of radiative forcing by 2100.
2023 temperature stats:
What was average temperature? And temperature rise?
All days had global temp above XC?
How many % of days were 1.5C or more warmer?
What was hottest month in recorded history?
14.98C, 1.48C
1C
50%
July 2023
Additionally, hottest seven month period on record occurred from June to December 2023, including warmest ever June, July, and august
What is the scope of the RCPs?
Representative Concentration Pathways only determine level of GHG emissions and associated temperature rises. They do not envisage economic, technological, or political developments to get there.
Which scenarios have been developed to reflect different challenges in the way of abatement or adaptation and to describe how global society may evolve under these assumptions?
Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSEP) with distinct assumptions around economic growth, population, inequality, literacy, technological change, and urbanisation. The outputs are climate policies and emissions reductions under the different scenarios.
What is the lowest possible scenario used for climate modelling and what is it a blend of?
SSP and RCP1-1.9 -> 1.5C
Based on the SSP scenarios, what conclusion did the IPCC’s 2021 come to?
That global temperatures will continue to rise to 2050 under all scenarios
What is the best current estimate of climate sensitivity?
3C every time concentration of CO2 doubles, but range is 2.5-4C
What can you say about clouds?
Complex as both blanket and reflective effect. Depends on altitude and thickness of cloud. Difficult to model. Latest science expects net warming effect.
Land versus sea warming?
Land areas have warmed about twice as fast as the oceans
Where is global warming most and least incident?
Europe and Africa are warming faster than global average; polar regions experiencing faster change than tropical regions
What is the name given to positive feedback loops accelerating warming in the arctic?
Arctic amplification. Melt of sea ice leads to smaller surface area of ice reflecting sun
3 ways climate change causes sea level rise?
Melt of glaciers and ice sheets; expansion of oceans as they warm; loss of non-glacial water storage on land, e.g. groundwater acquifers
Where is water stored?
97% in oceans, 3% freshwater. 2/3 of 3% in glaciers and ice sheets. If Antarctica ice volume melted, sea levels would rise by 57m
How do scientists communicate the likelihood of an extreme weather event?
The return period. E.g. rainfall above X threshold is a 100-year event.
Global climate models have what key constraint?
Coarse spatial resolution, making it challenging to project impacts to specific local areas. Also lack of scientific understanding
Two forms of attribution analysis?
Would have been virtually impossible without warming
Warming has made the event X times more likely
Why are poor people in low income countries disproportionately impacted by climate change?
More likely to be impacted by natural resource changes and less likely to have the resources to cope with climate extremes, particularly impacting those in Subsaharan Africa and South Asia
What proportion of global emissions are covered by carbon pricing?
25%
How much global GDP is highly or moderately reliant on natural capital?
More than half of
How much of the global population live in areas that are potentially water scarce?
3.6bn - roughly half
What % of global land is already degraded or degrading?
40%
AFOLU activities produce?
13% of global CO2, 44% of methane, and 81% of nitrous oxide emissions
Global land is a carbon sink for what % of CO2 emissions?
29%
What are the four forest risk commodities
Timber, soy, palm oil, and cattle products
What is REDD?
UNFCCC mechanism creating incentives for developing countries to reduce emissions from deforestation, enhance forest carbon sinks, and sustainably manage forests. Can also support land rights, although can also displace local people and create food security concerns
What is ocean acidification?
CO2 dissolving in seawater, lowering PH level.
What was the first global framework for sustainable ocean financing?
Sustainable Blue Economy Finance Principles, launched by the European Commission and WWF
Which organisation produced the Guidelines for Blue Finance? And what does it do?
International Finance Corporation (IFC) and it sets a framework for structuring, evaluating, and monitoring blue bond issuances and blue loans.
What is the Nature Conservancy’s Blue Bonds for Conservation programme?
Aims to leverage public grants and commercial capital to restructure nations’ sovereign debt, leading to lower interest rates and longer repayment periods
And
Create long-term sustainable finance for marine protection
What did the 2022 COP15 pledge?
In Montreal, countries pledged to protect 30% of land and water by 2030
What will the United Nations high seas treaty support?
Strengthening legal frameworks for use of biodiversity in the 60% of world oceans falling outside national boundaries (high seas), enabling the establishment of marine protected areas
Biodiversity provides what difficult-to-value service?
Regulating services
What has been a recent focus for biodiversity protection besides PAs?
Other Effective Area-Based Conservation Measures (OECMs), monitored via the World Database of OECMs.
Why has GFANZ been criticised for greenwashing?
450 firms with 130tn AUM, some of which are world’s leading backers of fossil fuels
What are the two forms of stranded asset?
Infrastructure/real assets that have shortened asset lives
And
Reserves and resources, which may have to be left in the ground
Current fossil fuel infrastructure will do what?
Emit more GHGs than is compatible with 1.5C . Globally, 30% of oil reserves, 50% of gas, and 80% of coal must be unburned to limit warming to 2C
What are stranded liabilities?
The obligation for oil and gas companies to safely decommission assets, which may not be fully funded if the asset has been retired early and thus yielded less than expected
What is climate value at risk
The change in NPV between BAU scenario and faster transition (e.g. WB2C)
What disclosure regulation does scenario analysis feature in?
SFDR and TCFD encourages this
What 5 areas of climate opportunities does the TCFD identify?
Energy sources, resource efficient, product and services, markets, and resilience
What are the 3 ways to decarbonise virgin steel production?
- Replace coke and coal with hydrogen as a reducing agent (direct reduction of iron) and then use EAFS to produce final steel
- Apply CCS
- Switch to smelting reduction with CCS
What recent regulation is driving the circular economy?
The EU Green Deal’s Circular Economy Action Plan
And China’s Circular Economy Promotion Law
What are the 4 principles of the circular economy?
- Design out waste and pollution
- Keep products and materials in use
- Use renewable energy
- Regenerative natural systems
What % of the economy is currently circular?
8.6%
How can businesses quantify current levels of circularity?
The Ellen MacArthur Foundation’s Circulytics uses 18 different indicators. And the WBCSD has also developed a set of Circular Economy Transition Indicators
The Global Commission on Adaptation (GCA) has 5 target areas?
- Early warning systems
- Climate-resilient infrastructure
- Improved dry land agriculture crop rotation
- Global mangrove protection
- Projects to make water resources more resilient
Which organisation monitors the impacts of climate change on human health
The Lancer through its Lancet Countdown
Which illness is likely to spread?
Dengue fever and malaria
Besides extreme heat, what other climate change affects plants most?
Elevated tropospheric ozone in the innermost layer of the atmosphere
Which organisation monitors climate-related displacements of people?
The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre
Why are cities particularly exposed to climate risks?
50% of cities on coastlines;
Urban heat island effect is caused by the density of buildings trapping heat
Disasters require what to be defined as such?
Need assistance or support to facilitate recovery
Which organisation provides guidance on the just transition in different asset classes?
Grantham
