Chapter 15 Flashcards
what are the 3 methods calculating market risk
- JPM risk metrics model
-Historic approach
-Monte carlo simulation
what is JPM risk metrics model
(DEAR) estimates how much money they could lose in a single day due to market changes
- expressed as currency
- done on portfolio of assets
what is historic simulation
estimates risk by looking at how investment did in the past, looks at data and tries to predict future
what is monte carlo simlation
-predicts what ifs scenarios
-comes up with multiple predictions using linear regression to figure out
what are the strengths and weaknesses of JPM risk metrics
strengths: simple, fast, considers correlation
weaknesses: assumes normal returns, misses extremes (fat tails), doesnt provide worst case scenerio number
what are the strengths and weaknesses of historic model
strength: simple, no calculations, provides worst case scenerio number
weaknesses: only based on 500 observations
what are the strengths and weaknesses of monte carlo model
strength: flexible, allows you to assume situations
weaknesses: time consuming