Chapter 14 - Biostatistics Flashcards
Editor’s role
The editor of the journal selects potential publications and sends them to experts in the topic area for peer review.
Peer review’s role:
Assess
- the research design and methods
- the value of the results and conclusions to the field of study
- how well the manuscript is written
- whether it is appropriate for the readership of the journal.
Reviewers role:
- The reviewers make a recommendation to the editor to either accept the article (usually with revisions) or reject it.
- Data that contradicts a previous recommendation, or presents new information, can change treatment guidelines.
What are the 6 STEPS TO JOURNAL PUBLICATION
1) Begin with a research question:
Write a null hypothesis to answer the research question, such as: New drug is not as effective as current drug.
2) Design the study:
Is it randomized, placebo-controlled, a case-control or other type of study?
3) Enroll the subjects:
Assign to a treatment group or control group, or identify subjects belonging to a cohort or other group.
4) Collect the data:
- Prospectively (going into the future for a set period of time) or
- Retrospectively (looking back in time using medical records).
5) Analyze the data: Enter the data into statistical software; assess the results (e.g., risk reductions, confidence intervals).
6) Publish
Types of study data:
1) Continuous Data:
- Interval Data: No meaningful 0 (0 Celsius)
- Ratio Data: Meaningful 0 (HR: 0 bpm)
2) Discrete (Categorical) Data
- Nominal (Arbitrary order): M/F or Y/N
- Ordinal (Logical order): Pain scale (4 is not double 2)
Quantity
Quality
Measures of central tendency: (Define)
■ Mean:
- Average value
- Add up the values & divid the sum by the # of values.
- Preferred for CONTINUOUS data that is NORMALLY distributed
■ Median:
- The value in the middle when the values are arranged from lowest to highest.
- When there are two center values, take the average of the two center values.
- Preferred for ORDINAL data or CONTINUOUS data that is SKEWED (not normally distributed).
■ Mode:
- Value that occurs most frequently.
- Preferred for NOMINAL data.
SPREAD (VARIABILITY) OF DATA
■ Range:
The difference between the highest and lowest values.
■ Standard deviation (SD):
Indicates how spread out the data is, and to what degree the data is dispersed away from the mean
A large number of data values close to the mean has a smaller SD.
Data that is highly dispersed has a larger SD.
GAUSSIAN OR NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
- Characteristics
- Bell-shaped distribution
- Large sample sets of CONTINUOUS data
- Curve is symmetrical
- Most of values closer to the middle
- Mean, Median, Mode are at the CENTER and SAME value
- 68% of the values fall within 1 SD of the mean
- 95% of the values fall within 2 SDs of the mean.
SKEWED DISTRIBUTIONS
- Curve is not symmetrical
- 68% of data do not fall under 1 SD from the mean
- Mean, median and mode are not the same value
- Small sample size &/or there’s outliers in data
- The MEDIAN is a better measure of central tendency
- As the number of values inc, the effect of outliers of the mean dec
Data is skewed towards the outliers
1) Positive (Right) skewed:
- Data is more to the LEFT
2) Negative (Left) skewed:
- Data is more to the RIGHT
What are the types of endpoints to the study’s variables
- Clinical endpoint: hospitalization, death…
- Intermediate (Surrogate) endpoint: measuring CrCl to assess renal fcn
What are the Dependent & Independent Variables?
- Dependent: The outcome (hosp, death…)
- Independent: Chosen by researcher (to determine whether it has an effect on dependent variable or outcome), characteristics of pts, inclusion/ exclusion criteria (age, gender…)
Null hypothesis Vs Alternative Hypothesis
Ho: null
- no statistical difference
- should be rejected
Ha: alternative
- statistical diff
- Should be accepted
They are complementary
What is the alpha level or standard for significance?
- Max permissible error margin
- Set by researchers
- Commonly 5% or 0.05 (should be <0.05)
- The threshold of rejecting the null hypothesis
- If they want to chose a lower alpha (1%); requires:
- More data –> more expensive
- Larger ttmt effect
- It correlates to the values in the tails when the data has a normal distribution
What is the P-value and how is it used in assessing statistical significance?
1) Researcher determine alpha
2) Statistical tests are done to compare data
3) P-value is calculated; i need p-value < alpha
- if alpha is 5%,
p-value <5 –> reject null hypothesis and stat sig
p-value >= 5 –> accept null hypothesis and no stat sig
What is the Confidence Interval?
It shows 2 main things, what are they?
- Shows significance and precision
- CI = 1 - Alpha
If a=0.05, and p-value turned out to be < 0.05, then
I am 95% confident that the conclusion is correct and there is 5% chance that it is not –> STAT SIG
The result is stat sig if the CI does not cross 0 (diff) or 1 (ratio)
- Narrow CI –> high precision (preferable)
- Specific pt types will cause wider distribution in data
(Pts with high TG levels will experience a higher drop of TG)
Type I Error (False Positive)
- The alternative hypothesis was accepted and the null hypothesis was rejected IN ERROR.
- The probability, or risk, of making a type I error is determined by ALPHA and it relates to the CONFIDENCE INTERVAL.
CI = 1 - Alpha
- When alpha is 0.05 and a study result is reported with P-value < 0.05, it is statistically significant and the probability of a type I error (making the wrong conclusion) is < 5%
- You are 95% confident (0.95 = 1- 0.05) that your result is correct and not due to chance.
Type II Error (False Negative)
- Denoted as beta
- Null hypothesis is accepted when it should have been rejected.
- Beta is set by the investigators during the design of a study.
- Set at 0.1 or 0.2, meaning the risk of a type II error is 10% or 20%.
- The risk of a type II error increases if the sample size is too small.
- To decrease this risk, a power analysis is performed to determine the sample size needed to detect a true difference between groups.
Study Power
- Power is the probability that a test will reject the null hypothesis correctly (i.e., the power to avoid a type II error).
Power = 1 - beta
- As the power increases, the chance of a type II error (Beta) decreases.
- Power is determined by the number of outcome values collected, the difference in outcome rates between the groups, and the significance (alpha) level.
- If beta is set at 0.2, the study has 80% power (there is a 20% chance of missing a true difference and making a type II error).
- If beta is set at 0.1, the study has 90% power. A larger sample size is needed to increase study power and decrease the risk of a type II error.
Risk
- Probability of an event to occur when the intervention is given
Relative risk or risk ratio
Risk = (Number of subjects in group with an unfavorable event) / (Total number of subjects in group)
RR = (Risk in treatment group)/ (Risk in control group) x100
- RR= 1 (or 100%) implies no difference in risk of the outcome between the groups.
- RR> 1 (or 100%)implies greater risk of the outcome in the treatment group.
- RR< 1 (or 100%) implies lower risk (reduced risk) of the outcome in the treatment group.
ex: RR of HF progression was 57%.
Patients treated with metoprolol were 57% as likely to have progression of disease as placebo-treated patients.
A placebo-controlled study was performed to evaluate whether metoprolol reduces disease progression in patients with heart failure (HF).
A total of 10,111patients were enrolled and followed for 12months.
What is the relative risk of HF progression in the metoprolol-treated group versus the placebo group?
Calculate the risk of HF progression in each group. Then calculate RR.
METOPROLOL
- N = 5,123
- HF progression: 823
CONTROL
- N = 4,988
- HF progression: 1,397
Metoprolol Risk:
823/ 5,123 = 0.16
Control Risk:
1,397/ 4,988 = 0.28
RR = R/R = 0.16/0.28 = 0.57
57%
The RR of HF progression was 57%.
Patients treated with metoprolol were 57% as likely to have progression of disease as placebo-treated patients.
Relative risk ratio
- Indicates how much the risk is reduced in the treatment group compared to the control group.
RRR = (% risk in control group - % risk in treatment group) / % risk in the control group
OR
RRR = 1 - RR (use RR in decimal)
ex: The RRR is 43%.
Metoprolol-treated patients were 43% less likely to have HF progression than placebo-treated patients.
RR + RRR =
1
RR as likely
RRR less likely
The RR and RRR provide relative (proportional) differences in risk between the treatment group and the control group; they have no meaning in terms of absolute risk.
Absolute Risk Reduction
- Absolute risk reduction is more useful because it includes the reduction in risk and the incidence rate of the outcome.
- If the risk of nausea is reduced, but the risk was small to begin with (perhaps the drug caused very little nausea), the large risk reduction has little practical benefit.
- It is best if a study reports both ARR and RRR
ARR = (% risk in control grp) - (% risk in treatment grp)
interpretation:
The ARR is 12%, meaning 12 out of every 100 patients benefit from the treatment.
Said another way, for every 100 patients treated with metoprolol, 12 fewer patients will have HF progression.
Number needed to Treat or Harm
NNT:
- NNT is the number of patients who need to be treated for a certain period of time (e.g., one year) in order for one patient to benefit (e.g.,avoid HF progression).
NNT = 1 / (Risk in control group - Risk in ttmt group)
NNT = 1 / ARR
Risk and ARR are expressed as decimals
Round up to the nearest 1
Interpretation:
For every 9 patients who receive metoprolol for one year, HF progression is prevented in one patient.
NNH:
- NNH is the number of patients who need to be treated for a certain period of time in order for one patient to experience harm.
- Same formula as NNT
- Round down to nearest one
Odds Ratio
- Odds are the probability that an event will occur versus the probability that it will not occur
- Case-control studies, are not suitable for relative risk calculations. In case-control studies, the odds ratio is used to estimate the risk of unfavorable events associated with a treatment or intervention. (an be used in cohort and cross-sectional studies.)
- The odds ratio (OR) is used to calculate the odds of an outcome occurring with an exposure, compared to the odds of the outcome occurring without the exposure.
exposure/ttmt——outcome present —-Absent
Present ——————A ———————-B
Absent——————–C————————-D
OR = AD / BC
OR = (# that have the outcome, with exposure) x (# without the outcome, without exposure) / (# without the outcome, with exposure) x (# that have the outcome, without exposure)