Chapter 13: Judgment, Decisions, and Reasoning

Question 1

Judge, Reason, & Decide: The Relationship

Answer 1

• All 3 are different, but they are interconnected
• You need judgements to reason about, and then reasons to make decisions

Question 2

Inductive Reasoning

Answer 2

• The process of drawing general conclusions based on specific observations and evidence
• I usually get hard when my bros grab my weiner–I might be gay!

Question 3

The Availability Heuristic

Answer 3

• Events that come to mind fast are more likely to occur
• Shark attax

Question 4

The Availability Heuristic: Illusory Correlations

Answer 4

• Occurs when a relationship between 2 thangs seems to exist, but in reality shit isn’t related at all!
• Related to da availability heuristic bcuz we think their race is correlated with their smell

Question 5

The Representativeness Heuristic

Answer 5

• We often judge people or situations based on how much they represent a larger group
• i.e., dude has glasses, he gotta be a fuckin nerd ass!

Question 6

Representativeness Heuristic: The Base Rate

Answer 6

• The relative proportion of different classes in the population
• Even though there’s way more farmers than librarians, people think a quiet guy with glasses is more likely to be a librarian

Question 7

The Representativeness Heuristic: The Conjunction Rule

Answer 7

• The probability of 2 events (A & B occuring together) cannot be higher than either one happening on its own
• People think its more likely that I’m racist and have a small cock than that I’m just racist! And its only based on my facebook!

Question 8

Representativeness Heuristic: The Law of Large Numbaz

Answer 8

• The larger the # of individuals randomly drawn from a pop, the more representative it’ll be of the ovrall pop
• If you take a group of 20 vs 2000, you’re less likely to get an accurate vision of how many Asians there are

Question 9

Attitudes & Judgment: The Myside Bias

Answer 9

• People tend to evaluate evidence in a way that’s biased to their own opinions
• I might think arguments against cigarette smoking are gay and stupid and biased!

Question 10

Evaluating False Evidence: The Backfire Effect

Answer 10

• People might actually support their viewpoint MORE after being presented wit contradictory evidence
• When someone shows me how easy cigarettes kill your lungs, I will chastise them and be more into ciggys!

Question 11

Deductive Reasoning

Answer 11

• We determine whether a conclusion logically follows from statements
• All men are born with cock
• I am a man
• A am born with cock

Question 12

Deductive Reasoning: Syllogisms

Answer 12

• Consist of 2 broad statements (premises) which are followed by a conclusion based on the premises
• All cops are bastards
• You are a cop
• You are a bastard

Question 13

Deductive Reasoning: Categorical Syllogisms

Answer 13

• The premises & conclusions all start with ALL, NO, or SOME
• All cops are bastards
• All white men are cops
• All white men are bastards

Question 14

Deductive Reasoning: Validity

Answer 14

• Not so much about truth of the conclusion, but about the way the way the argument is presented
• All men are gay
• I am a man
• I am gay
• Valid arg but NOT TRUE

Question 15

Deductive Reasoning: Belief Bias

Answer 15

• The tendency to think a syllogism is valid if its conclusion is believable
• The argument might be technically flawed, but if the concluge is believable, we might mistake it for a good one

Question 16

Deductive Reasoning: The Mental Model Approach

Answer 16

• Mental Models are specific situations in the mind that help determine the validity of syllogisms in deductive reasoning
• These save us from knowing the rules of logic and using abstractions to figure shit out

Question 17

Conditional Reasoning: Conditional Syllogysms

Answer 17

• 2 premises and a concluge, just like categorical syllos
• BUT they contain a conditional aspect (if, then)
• If I ate her out, then she would eat my ass
• I ate her out, therefore, she will eat my ass

Question 18

Conditional Reasoning: The Watson Four-Card Problem

Answer 18

• Presents an ‘if-then’ reasoning task
• Performance improves when the task is stated in real-world terms
• Shows that people are better at conditional reasoning when they’re more familiar wif da conditions!

Question 19

Watson Four-Card Prob: The Falsification Principle

Answer 19

• To test a rule, you gotta find situations that would falsify the rule
• You can find a bunch of situations to confirm a condition, but only 1 that falsifies and you’re bunked!

Question 20

Watson Four-Card Prob: Permission Schema

Answer 20

• A type of condition where IF you meet a certain criteria (19) THEN you get to get rinsed!

Question 21

Decision Making: Expected Utility Theory

Answer 21

• Assumes humans are generally rational
• Posits that when presented with all relevant info, people will act with maximum utility (goal-oriented)
• Often not the case in practice (peeps are emotional n shit)

Question 22

Emotions & Decision Making: Expected Emotions

Answer 22

• Emotions people predict they will feel for a particular outcome
• People often use these to weigh their decisions
• How will I feel if I take the risk and ask her to go on a sex date and she says no vs says yes?

Question 23

Emotions & Decision Making: Risk Aversion

Answer 23

• We tend to avoid taking risks in general because we overestimate the pain of negative feelings
• Even if they could win $200 and only lose $100, many people don’t take the risk because of the possibility of losing unnecessarily

Question 24

Emotions & Decision Making: Incidental Emotions

Answer 24

• Emotions that are not cause by having to make a decision
• Can be affected my many factors (cake, anal, disposition)
• Even though they ain’t related to a decision, incidental emotions often affect the decisions we make

Question 25

Judgment & Presentation: Opt-In Procedure

Answer 25

• A decision which requires homie to take an active step to participate
• You gotta leave money on the counter to tip the SubWay employee

Question 26

Judgment & Presentation: Opt-Out Procedure

Answer 26

• A decision which requires an active step to NOT participate
• You gotta press NO TIP to not tip the SubWay employee

Question 27

Judgment & Presentation: Status Quo Bias

Answer 27

• We prefer to do nothing when faced with making a decision
• We tend to accept what’s generally offered instead of making an effort to do different shit
• Get an iPhone cuz everyone has one even though its bad for yo ass

Question 28

Judgment & Presentation: Risk Aversion Strategy

Answer 28

• We tend to avoid risk when the prob is presented as a good certainty vs a bad risk
• Definitely get head VS 50% chance you get sex or nothing

Question 29

Judgment & Presentation: Risk-Taking Strategy

Answer 29

• We tend to accept risk when the prob is presented as a bad certainty vs a good risk
• Head but Definitely don’t get sex VS 50% chance you get awesome sex!

Question 30

Decision Making & Brain: Neuroeconomics

Answer 30

• An approach to studying decision making which combines research from psych, neuroscience, & econ
• Shows how brain activashe is related to decisions that involve potench gains or losses

Question 31

The Dual Systems Approach

Answer 31

• There are 2 mental systems!
• Fast, automatic & intuitive system (SYSTEM 1)
• Slow, more deliberative system (SYSTEM 2)
• Explains why humans can be rational but are often influenced to be irrational when making decisions