Chapter 13: Judgement Reasoning And Decision Flashcards
Define inductive reasoning
Reasoning based on observations or reaching conclusions based on evidence.( Bottom up reasoning)
Characteristics of inductive reasoning is that conclusions are probable.
Strong inductive argument lead to conclusions that are most likely to be true
Weak argument lead to conclusions that are unlikely to be true.
What factors contribute to the strength of an argument
Representativeness of observations: meaning how well do the observations about a certain category represent all the numbers of that category.
Number of observations:
Quality of the evidence: stronger evidence causes stronger conclusions
Define heuristic
Are shortcuts or rules of thumb that help provide correct answer to a problem.
Availability heuristic: states that events that are more likely to be recalled are judged as being more probable than events that are less remembered.
Illusionary correlation occurs when a correlation between 2 events appear to exist but really there’s none or is weaker than it seems
Stereotypes: oversimplified generalization about a group or class of people that often Center’s on the negative.
The representativeness heuristic: states that the probability that A is a member of B can be determined by how well the properties of A resemble B
Base rates or relative proportion of different classes in the population
What is the conjunction rules
States that the probability of conjunction of 2 events A&B can’t be higher than the probability of the single constituents A only or B only
State the law of large number
It states that the larger the number of individuals that are randomly drawn from a population the more representative the resulting group will be of the entire population
Samples of small numbers of individuals will be less representative of the population.
Explain the influence of preconceptions attitude and judgement
My side bias: the tendency for people to generate and evaluate evidence and test their hypotheses in a way that is biased towards their own opinions and attitudes.
Confirmation bias is broader as it holds to any situation in which info is favoured that confirm a hypothesis.
Discuss deductive reasoning
We determine whether a conclusion logically follows from statements called premises.
Syllogism: consists of 2 premises followed by a third statement called conclusion.
Categorical syllogism where the premises and conclusions are statement that begins with all no or some
Validity of syllogism is valid when the form of the syllogism indicated that it’s conclusions follows logically from its 2 premises.
Belief bias: the tendency to think a syllogism is valid if it’s conclusions is believable.
Expand on the mental model approach
A mental model is a specific situation represented in a person’s mind that can be used to help determine the validity of syllogisms in deductive reasoning.
Mental model theory: a conclusion is valid only if it can’t be refuted by any model of the premises.
What are conditional syllogisms
Have 2 premises and a conclusion but the first premise has the form if….then.
Falsification principles: to test a rule it’s necessary to look for situations that would falsify the rule.
Permission schema: states that if a person satisfies a specific condition then he or she gets to carry out an action.
What is the evolutionary approach to 4 card problem
Evolutionary perspective on cognition: uses principles of natural selection which states that adaptive characteristics that help organisms survive to pass genes to other generations will over a period of time become basic characteristics of organism.
Social exchange theory: states that an important aspect of human behaviour is the ability for 2 people to cooperates in a way that is beneficial to both.
Discuss how decision making process occurs
The utility approach to decision
Expected utility theory assumes that people are basically rational and if they have all the relevant information they will make a decision that results in maximum expected utility
Utility refers to outcome that achieves a person’s goals
How does emotions influence decision making
Somatic marker hypothesis suggests that emotion related signals may bias certain choices either consciously or unconsciously
Expected emotions: are emotional prediction about feeling for a certain outcome.
Risk aversion: the tendency to avoid taking risks. The belief that a certain loss will have a great impact than a gain of Same magnitude increases chance of risk aversion.
Prospect theory proposes that in contrast to utility theory people’s choices are better predicted by values that they assign to gain and loss as opposed to value assigned to certain outcome.
Incidental emotions: emotions that are not caused by having to make a decision.
Sadder but wiser hypothesis: states that sadness had been found to be associated with with careful deliberate decision making and a reduction in bias arising from heuristic as well as thinking based on reputation and stereotypes
Myopic misery hypothesis: sadness being associated with a sense of loss and need for change and reward replacement.
How can context of decision making be influencial
Choice overload: having more choice leads to less decision making and less satisfaction with chosen alternative.
How can decision making depend on its presentation
Status quo bias: the tendency to do nothing when faced with making a decision
Risk aversion strategy
Risk taking strategy
Framing effect: decision are influenced by how the choices are stated. In framed in terms of gains people use risk aversion strategy and when choice is framed in terms of losses people use risk taking strategy.
What is meant by neuroeconomics
Combined research from psychology neuroscience and economics to study how brain activation is related to decision involving potential gain or loss.
