Chapter 13 Flashcards
What is inductive reasoning?
reasoning based on observations or reaching conclusions from evidence.
Why is inductive reasoning referred to as bottom-up reasoning?
goes from specific observations to broader generalisations and theories.
what are the factors that contribute to the strength of inductive arguments.
number of observations, quality of evidence
Deductive reasoning
top-down reasoning where we go from more general to more specific.
heuristics
shortcuts, rules of thumb that are likely to provide the correct answer to a problem.
availability heuristic
events that are most easily remembered are judged as being more probable than events that are less easily remembered.
what are illusionary correlations?
correlation between two events that appears to exist but doesn’t
what is a stereotype?
oversimplified generalization about a group or class of people
what is a stereotype?
oversimplified generalization about a group or class of people
representativeness heuristic
The probability that A is a member of class B can be determined by how well the properties of A resemble the properties we associate with class B.
what is the conjunction rule?
the probability of a conjunction of two events cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents. (representative heuristic influences this)
what is the law of large numbers?
the larger the number of individuals from a population, the more representative the resulting group will be of the entire population.
what is the my-side bias?
people’s prior beliefs can lead to a focus on information that agrees with their beliefs. similar to the confirmation bias
what is validity?
the conclusion follows logically from its two premises.
what is the social exchange theory?
the ability for two people to cooperate in a way that is beneficial for both people.
what is the utility approach to decisions
Expected utility theory: people are rational. If people have all the relevant information, they make decisions that result in the maximum expected utility.
calculating expected utility
multiplying assigned value and probability of each possible outcome. Highest EU is the decision people will go for.
What are the problems with the EU theory?
the events that occur before a decision can influence us. Individuals take more risks in hope of beating the odds.