Chapter 10 Introduction To Estimation Flashcards
Objective of estimation
To determine the approximate value of a population parameter on the basis of a sample statistic
Point estimator
Draws inferences about a population by estimating the value of an unknown parameter using a single value or point. (when we consider the calculated sample statistic to be the estimated population parameter)
Drawbacks:
- virtually certain to be wrong (probability of a continuous random variable = specific value =0)
- often need to know how close estimator is to parameter
- no way to reflect effects of larger sample size
Interval estimator
Draws inferences about a population by estimating the value of an unknown parameter using an interval
- affected by sample size
Desirable qualities of sample statistics
Unbiasedness
Consistency
Relative efficiency
Unbiased estimator
An estimator of a population parameter whose expected value is equal to that parameter
(Average value of estimator taken from infinite samples = parameter. Or. On average the sample statistic = the parameter)
Consistency
An estimator is consistent when the difference between the estimator and the parameters grows smaller as the sample size grows larger
Gauged using variance/standard deviation
Relative efficiency
When there are two unbiased estimator of a parameter, the one whose variance is smaller is said to have relative efficiency
For normal population sample mean has a smaller variance than sample median and so is a relatively more efficient estimator.
Central limit theorem
The mean of X is normally distributed if X is normally distributed, or approximately normally distributed if X is non-normal but n (sample size) is sufficiently large
Interpreting confidence interval
There is a 1-a probability that the sample mean will be equal to a value such that the interval (mean x - z(a/2)(standard deviation/sq root sample #) to (mean x + z(a/2)(standard deviation/sq root sample #) will include the population mean
Confidence interval = percent of repeated samplings for which the above will be true
Width of the confidence interval
Function of the population standard deviation, the confidence level, and the sample size
Higher level of deviation = wider interval
Decreased confidence level= narrower interval (95% standard)
Increasing sample size narrows interval but increases costs
Confidence interval estimator of population mean
Sample mean + or - z(a/2)*(standard deviation / square root of n)
+ Gives upper confidence limit
- gives lower confidence limit
Confidence level
Probability 1-a
Can use table to find z(a/2) value but
Confidence level / Z(a/2) .90 / 1.645 .95 / 1.86 .98 / 2.33 .99 / 2.575