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ITM 3060 Information Technology Management > Chapter 10 Decision Support and Expert Systems > Flashcards

Chapter 10 Decision Support and Expert Systems Flashcards

1
Q

Decision Support

A
  • An organization’s success depends on the decisions made by employees
  • Computer-based systems are beneficial for:
    • Large amounts of information
    • Intensive processing
  • Types of decision support aids
    • Decision support systems (DSSs)
    • Expert systems (ESs)
  • Applications today may combine both types
    • Provide single optimal solution or set of solutions
  • Decision support modules today may be part of larger enterprise applications
    • Also called business analysis tools or business intelligence applications
    • Designed to streamline the decision-making process
  • -Data warehouses and online processing (OLAP) technologies have enhanced the ability to use data for decision making
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2
Q

Computer-based systems are beneficial for

A
  • Large amounts of information

- Intensive processing

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3
Q

Types of decision support aids

A
  • Decision support systems (DSSs)

- Expert systems (ESs)

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4
Q

Decision support modules today may be part of larger enterprise applications

A
  • Also called business analysis tools or business intelligence applications
  • Designed to streamline the decision-making process
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5
Q

The Decision Making Process

A
  • A decision must be made whenever more than one possible action is available
  • It can be difficult to make decisions when many reasonable alternatives are present
    • In business, there may be dozens, hundreds, or even millions of different courses of actions available to achieve a desired result
  • Decision making is a three-phase process
    • Intelligence phase: collect facts, beliefs, and ideas
    • Design phase: design the method for considering the collected data, to reduce the alternatives to a manageable number
    • Choice phase: select an alternative from the remaining choices
  • Businesses collect data internally and externally
  • A model is an abstraction of reality, such as:
    • Tabletop representations of buildings
    • Maps: represent a geographical area
    • Mathematical equations representing relationships among variables
  • Managers either choose universal models or design their own models
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6
Q

Decision making is a three-phase process

A
  • Intelligence phase: collect facts, beliefs, and ideas
  • Design phase: design the method for considering the collected data, to reduce the alternatives to a manageable number
  • Choice phase: select an alternative from the remaining choices
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7
Q

Model

A

an abstraction of reality, such as:

  • Tabletop representations of buildings
  • Maps: represent a geographical area
  • Mathematical equations representing relationships among variables
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8
Q

Structured problem

A

one in which an optimal solution can be reached through a single set of steps

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9
Q

Algorithm

A

a sequence of steps to complete a task

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10
Q

Parameters

A

categories of data that are considered in an algorithm

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11
Q

Unstructured problem

A

one for which there is no algorithm that leads to an optimal solution

  • May not be enough information
  • May be a large number of potential factors
  • Unstructuredness is closely related to uncertainty
  • Examples of unstructured problems
    • Weather prediction
    • Stock market prediction
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12
Q

Semistructured problem

A

one that is neither fully structured nor totally unstructured

  • Professionals encounter semistructured problems almost daily in many different industries
  • The goal is to choose the one alternative that will bring about the best outcome
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13
Q

Decision Support Systems

DSS

A

a computer-based information system designed to help knowledge workers select one of many alternative solutions to a problem

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14
Q

DSSs can help corporations by

A
  • Increasing market share
  • Reducing costs
  • Increasing profitability
  • Enhancing product quality
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15
Q

DSSs consist of three components

A
  • Data management module
  • Model management module
  • Dialog module
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16
Q

How do DSS components help users

A
  • Enter a request in a convenient manner
  • Search vast amounts of data
  • Process the data through desired models
  • View the results in a desired format
17
Q

Data management module

A

a database or data warehouse that provides data for the intelligence phase

  • Accesses the data
  • Provides a means to select data by specified criteria
  • Many DSSs are intertwined with other organizational systems, including data warehouses, data marts, and ERP systems
18
Q

Model management module

A

turns data into useful information

  • May offer a fixed model, a dynamically modified model, or a collection of models
    • Dynamically modified model is automatically adjusted based on changing relationships among variables
  • Models are used to predict output
    Often based on mathematical research
  • Patterns or models may be unique to a certain industry, such as:
    • ATM placement
    • Truck route planning
    • Airline ticket pricing
    • Car rental pricing
  • A linear regression model is a general statistical model that is often used
    • Gives a best-fit linear relationship between two variables
  • A linear relationship can be translated into a program in a DSS
  • The actual data points rarely lie directly on the regression line, illustrating the uncertainty
  • Regression models are not necessarily always straight lines; they may be curves
  • Models often describe relationships between more than two variables
  • Some DSSs simulate physical environments
19
Q

Dialog module

A

part of a DSS that allows user interaction with the program

  • Prompts the user to select a model and data to process
  • Allows the user to change parameters and view the results of the changes
  • Displays the results of the analysis in textual, tabular, or graphical format
  • Many DSSs are available through the Internet
20
Q

Sensitivity analysis

A

conducted to test the degree to which the total profit grows or shrinks
- If one or more of the factors is increased or decreased

  • Results indicate the relative sensitivity of the profit to the changes
  • If a small change in a parameter causes a significant change to the outcome:
    • Sensitivity of the outcome to the parameter is high
  • If the outcome is affected very little by a large change in a parameter:
    • Sensitivity of the outcome to the parameter is low
  • Also called what-if analysis
  • DSS can perform sensitivity analysis on multiple parameters simultaneously
21
Q

Decision Support Systems in Action

A
  • DSSs can be used on demand or integrated into a scheme that enforces corporate policy
  • DSSs help maintain standard criteria in decision making throughout the organization
  • Automated decision production is becoming very popular
    • The only labor required is for data entry
22
Q

DSSs are used in many industries

A
  • Book sales and food production and retailing: to forecast the number of patrons, the amount of ingredients to purchase, etc.
  • Tax planning: tax helper applications such as TurboTax and TaxCut
  • Web site planning and adjustment: to analyze shopper behavior, and to design Web sites based on page usage
  • Yield management (revenue management): to maximize revenue from airline trips or lodging
  • Financial services: to determine loan amounts, and to qualify customers based on credit history
  • Benefits selection: to allow employees to make decisions about their benefits
23
Q

Yield management

A

(revenue management): to maximize revenue from airline trips or lodging

24
Q

ES

A

Expert system (ES): emulates the knowledge of a human expert

  • Solves problems
  • Makes decisions in a relatively narrow domain
  • Domain: a specific area of knowledge
  • Purpose is to replicate the unstructured and undocumented knowledge of experts, and make that expertise available to novices
  • Neural network: a program that emulates how the human brain works
    • mimic the way a human brain learns
    • Used by more sophisticated ESs
    • Constructed with a set of rules, but then it refines itself based on its decision success rate
    • Beneficial in detecting fraudulent transactions and claims
  • ESs are part of artificial intelligence (AI) research
    • AI focuses on methods and technologies that emulate how humans learn and solve problems
  • Knowledge base: used by an ES
    • Collection of facts and relationships among them
    • Uses an inference engine
    • Built as a series of IF-THEN rules
  • Inference engine: software that combines data input by the user with the data relationships
  • Intelligent agent: software that is dormant until it detects a certain event, and then performs a prescribed action
  • Case-based reasoning: methodology of solving a new problem established on the solutions of similar problems
    • Applied in case-based ESs
    • Especially useful in medical decision making
25
Q

Neural network

A

a program that emulates how the human brain works/learns

  • Used by more sophisticated ESs
  • Constructed with a set of rules, but then it refines itself based on its decision success rate
  • Beneficial in detecting fraudulent transactions and claims
26
Q

Inference engine

A

software that combines data input by the user with the data

27
Q

Knowledge base

A
  • Collection of facts and relationships among them
    • Uses an inference engine
    • Built as a series of IF-THEN rules
28
Q

AI

A

artificial intelligence (AI) research

AI focuses on methods and technologies that emulate how humans learn and solve problems

29
Q

Intelligent agent:

A

software that is dormant until it detects a certain event, and then performs a prescribed action

30
Q

Case-based reasoning:

A

methodology of solving a new problem established on the solutions of similar problems

  • Applied in case-based ESs
  • Especially useful in medical decision making
31
Q

Expert Systems in Action

A

ESs have been implemented in many industries

  • Medical diagnosis
    • Help doctors with the diagnosis of symptoms and treatment advice
    • Can help enhance the accuracy of Alzheimer’s disease diagnosis
  • Medical management
    • Help discern patients’ tests and treatments
    • Assist with health information management
  • Implemented in many industries (cont’d.)
    • Credit evaluation
      • Used to approve credit card charges
      • Used to analyze financial reports submitted with credit applications
      • Local loan officers may periodically update the knowledge base adjusting it for current loan policy
    • Detection of insider securities trading
      • Helps prevent trading of stocks based on private information by analyzing the stock’s history
    • Detection of common metals
      • Helps nonexperts identify common metals and alloys outside laboratories
      • Based on results of simple chemical tests and other information available at the scene
    • Diagnosis and prediction of mechanical failure
      • Allows vehicle to diagnose its own mechanical problems
      • Provides alerts when approaching traffic jam, navigation assistance, Internet service, etc
32
Q

ESs implemented in what industries?

A
  • medical dx
  • medical management
  • credit eval
  • detection of insider securities trading
  • detection of common metals
  • dx and prediction of mechanical failure
33
Q

GDSS

A

Group decision support system (GDSS)

  • Also called a group intelligence system, collaborative system, or group system
  • Facilitates the contribution of ideas, brainstorming, and choosing promising solutions
  • Allow participants to define a problem, contribute ideas, then vote on the decision
  • Help structure the decision-making process while allowing participants to remain anonymous
  • GIS: aid for map-related decisions
    • Processes location data
  • Web technology helps promote the use of GISs
    • Examples: Google Earth, Mapquest, Yahoo Maps
  • HTML and XML support the presentation of marked maps
  • Used to aid sales and government work
34
Q

GISs are used to help:

A
  • Find shortest paths for deliveries or school bus routes
    • City planning for police coverage and health care resources
    • Find oil drilling locations
    • Locate suitable outdoor recreation sites
    • Decide placement of ATMs
35
Q

GIS components

A
  • Database of quantitative and qualitative data
  • Database of maps
  • Program that displays information on maps
36
Q

Summary

A
  • Decision aids include decision support systems, expert systems, group decision support systems, geographic information systems, etc.
  • Three major phases of decision-making process: intelligence, design, and choice
  • Types of problems: spectrum from unstructured to structured
  • Most DSSs have three components: data management module, model management module, and dialog module
  • Sensitivity analysis measures how parameters affect results, and allow “what if” analysis
  • Spreadsheets allow users to create DSSs without expertise
  • Expert systems are designed to emulate the knowledge of an expert, using artificial intelligence techniques
  • Neural network software may be integrated into an expert system to emulate learning
  • Expert systems are used in narrow domains where decisions are unstructured
  • Geographic information systems are used when decisions involve locations and routes
  • Computerized decision aids may overlook important circumstances, leading to inaccuracies or unfairness to individuals

ITM 3060 Information Technology Management (6 decks)

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