chap13 judgement Flashcards
Decisions
the process of making choices between alternatives
Reasoning:
the process of drawing conclusions
Inductive Reasoning
Reasoning that is based on observation
Reaching conclusions from evidence
strength of argument
Representativeness of observations
Number of observations
Quality of observations
“Rules of thumb
” that are likely to provide the correct answer to a problem, but are not foolproof
Two more commonly used heuristics include the availability heuristic and the representativeness heuristic
Availability heuristic
events more easily remembered are judged as being more probable than those less easily remembered
Illusory correlations
correlation appears to exist, but either does not exist or is much weaker than assumed
Stereotypes: an oversimplified generalization about a group or class of people that often focuses on the negative
Representativeness heuristic
Probability that A is a member of class B is determined by how well properties of A resemble properties normally associated with B
Use base rate information if it is all that is available
Use descriptive information if available and disregard base rate information
Conjunction rule
probability of conjunction two events cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents
Law of large numbers
the larger the number of individuals randomly drawn from a population, the more representative the resulting group will be of the entire population
Myside bias
tendency for people to generate and evaluate evidence and test their hypotheses in a way that is biased toward their own opinions and attitudes
Confirmation bias
tendency to selectively look for information that conforms to our hypothesis and overlook information that argues against it
Lord and coworkers (1979)
(The myside bias)
Had those in favor of capital punishment and those against it read the same article
Those in favor found the article convincing
Those against found the article unconvincing
Deductive Reasoning
Determining whether a conclusion logically follows from premises
Syllogism
Two statements called premises
Third statement called conclusion
Categorical syllogism
Describe relation between two categories using all, no, or some
Syllogism
Syllogism is valid if conclusion follows logically from its two premises
If two premises of a valid syllogism are true, the syllogism’s conclusion must be true
Do not confuse “validity” with “truth”
Belief bias
The tendency to think that a syllogism is valid if its conclusions are believable
Mental model
A specific situation represented in a person’s mind that can be used to help determine the validity of syllogisms in deductive reasoning
Create a model of a situation
Generate tentative conclusions about model
Look for exceptions to falsify model
Determine validity of syllogism
The Wason Four-Card Problem
Effect of using real-world items in a conditional reasoning problem
Determine minimum number of cards to turn over to test: if there is a vowel on one side, then there is an even number on the other side
Falsification principle
to test a rule, you must look for situations that falsify the rule
Most participants fail to do this
When problem is stated in concrete everyday terms, correct responses greatly increase
Permission schema
if A is satisfied, B can be carried out
Used in the concrete versions
People are familiar with rules
Cosmides and Tooby (1992)
Created unfamiliar situations where cheating could occur
Participants did well
People may be more sensitive to situations involving permissions or regulation
From evolutionary perspective, being on the lookout for cheaters is important to survival
Expected utility theory
People are rational
If they have all relevant information, they will make a decision that results in the maximum expected utility
Utility: outcomes that are desirable because they are in the person’s best interest
Maximum monetary payoff
Advantages for utility approach
Specific procedures to determine the “best choice”
Problems for utility approach
Not necessarily money, people find value in other things
Many decisions do not maximize the probability of the best outcome
Decision Making
Emotions affect decisions
Expected emotions
Emotions that people predict that they will feel concerning an outcome
People inaccurately predict their emotions
Incidental emotions
Emotions that are not specifically related to decision making
May be related to one’s general disposition or personality, recent experience, or one’s general environment or surroundings
Can affect one’s overall decision-making processes
Framing effect
decisions are influenced by how a decision is stated
Can highlight one aspect of situation
Tversky and Kahneman (1981)
When situations are framed in terms of gains, people tend toward a risk aversion strategy
When situations are framed in terms of losses, people tend toward a risk-taking strategy
Neuroeconomics
One finding: decisions are influenced by emotions, and those emotions are associated with activity in specific areas of the brain
