changing character of war

Question 1

what are the 3 new challenges in the world?

Answer 1

1. geopolitical (multipolarity/ great power politics)
2. political (new populism/inequality)
3. technological (drones, cyber, A.I)

Question 2

how does the state perceive new threats?

Answer 2

the modern state looks to the future to ensure long term security. looks at long term threats, next 10, 50, 100 years

Question 3

what is a black swan event?

Answer 3

an event that takes you by surprise and has a big shock factor e.g 9/11

Question 4

what was the problem faced by the US in the 1990s in relation to power?

Answer 4

the US was the only superpower and the power that comes with that, all that power can lead to overstepping and making mistakes

Question 5

what is the scarface theory of IR?

Answer 5

what have we misunderstood about th world, in terms of international relations, realists have alerted us to these mistakes by overusing our supply of power

Question 6

what is the world of power games?

Answer 6

creating short term marriages of convenience, frenemies. e.g osama bin Ladin was considered hero for fighting soviets in the 1980s but then planned 9/11 attacks, allies can change

Question 7

what was considered the end of history?

Answer 7

post Cold War 1990s, period of globalisation, deterrence by entanglement and end of superpower rivalry, a world of liberal peace and new world order

Question 8

what is deterrence by entanglement?

Answer 8

the idea we are so interconnected that wars will not happen due to entanglement of economy and society

Question 9

how was 9/11 significant in nature of threats?

Answer 9

the attack was carried out by a non-state actor and was black swan event, attack used as media spectacle

Question 10

what was the consequence of 9/11 on the west’s outlook on conflict?

Answer 10

the west then entered into wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and further relentless wars which ultimately resulted in the emergence of new threats such as ISIS

Question 11

what was the neoliberal response to foreign policy after 9/11?

Answer 11

US should spread liberal democracy through military force and we must act pre-emptively to survive and demonstrate power

Question 12

what are the different types of deterrence?

Answer 12

deterrence by punishment: you will inflict a cost
deterrence by denial: you will deter actor because what they want to do won’t work

Question 13

what are peer competitors?

Answer 13

those actors close to your power level and so wouldn’t wage direct war on a peer competitor as it is not easily won

Question 14

what are near peer competitors?

Answer 14

those who are not seen as close your power level.

Question 15

how was war in Iraq neither peer or near peer?

Answer 15

it was seen as neither as the US is so powerful compared to Iraq it was war that could be easily won

Question 16

how has great power politics changed in relation to war?

Answer 16

war is now too dangerous to wage as stakes are too high, the great power politics has become about deterring your enemies

Question 17

what is ‘war is peace’?

Answer 17

the threat of apocalypse from WMDs has worked so far, but this talks about states and nuclear weapons, not small state and non-state actors

Question 18

how is deterrence not as effective against terrorism?

Answer 18

terrorist groups won’t be deterred the same way as states, as they have less at stake and are more fluid in structure

Question 18

how is deterrence not as effective against terrorism?

Answer 18

terrorist groups won’t be deterred the same way as states, as they have less at stake and are more fluid in structure

Question 19

how has terror changed the way we see future threats?

Answer 19

the new creativity of terror through exploiting of vulnerabilities in open networked societies, the new challenge is to find the black swan event

Question 20

how can future terror threats be treated?

Answer 20

is it policing the operation, they can’t be deterred the same way as states, is there a need to act preemptively and destroy the threat before it can happen

Question 21

what was the neoconservative view on tackling future threats?

Answer 21

America needs to deal with forces domestically that are weakening the state and need to maintain their position in the world, not giving into new ideas such as climate change and international organisations

Question 22

what do realists see as the problem in danger of power politics?

Answer 22

the danger in American politics is in uni-polarity there is no deterrence against the power,

Question 23

what do realists say the consequence of uni-polar power?

Answer 23

the problem of policymakers living in worlds of fantasy and overestimate their own power and leading to underestimation of the enemy. it makes us blind to the messiness on the ground

Question 24

how is the idea of pre-emptive war changing?

Answer 24

the idea of this is ending, president Biden had called for end to unnecessary wars

Question 25

how did the debate of war change post 1990?

Answer 25

in 1990s liberalism won the battle of ideas over communism. after 9/11 debate Changes, and question asked how to respond to terror, the danger was the embarking on unnecessary wars and produce more chaos

Question 26

what would realists say the problem with changing debate of war?

Answer 26

realists say the problem is policymakers who are detached from the world, they use models and theories but not experience

Question 27

how do realists say that terrorism will never deeply transform the world?

Answer 27

realists argue the deep transformations come from Economic and military change, terrorism may evolve but will never change the world

Question 28

what do realists argue will deeply change the world?

Answer 28

realists point to china, which will eventually change the world, because it will need resources and stuff that drives growth and then become entangled in world conflict

Question 29

what does John Mearsheimer say the greatest mistake made by the US in new era?

Answer 29

mistake to bring china into the world stage and economy, he argues they should slow the growth as they are a future enemy

Question 30

how does deterrence play a role in war in Ukraine?

Answer 30

Americans support Ukraine and China supports Putin, each side sends weapons but doesn’t get directly involved because the cost of war is too high,
Putin threatens nuclear war as way to manipulate china into giving weapons to avoid European war

Question 31

what is an closed system of technological innovation?

Answer 31

during 20th c. was a time when resources to make weapons, came from states and advancement would happen behind closed doors in MOD or Pentagon

Question 32

what is an open system of technological innovation?

Answer 32

innovation occurs in multiple sates at multiple sites and America is not necessarily key actor

Question 33

what is Moores law?

Answer 33

the idea that the number of computing power is doubled and becomes more powerful whilst becoming cheaper

Question 34

how does Moores law apply to future of war?

Answer 34

the emergence of tech such as drones are dangerous, what will drone tech look like in 20 years as it becomes cheaper

Question 35

what does John Arqullia say about cyber war?

Answer 35

cyber war is here and we are in time of blitzkrieg, a type of war that will require new response

Question 36

how does Thomas Rid contrast what Arqullia says on cyber war?

Answer 36

Rid says cyber war will not take place, its sabotage and espionage things that states have always done, no-one dies because of cyber, war needs to be destructive threats, cyber will not impact the traditional weapon

Question 37

how do outside actors utilise the cyber war?

Answer 37

smaller networks outside state actors can now cheaply access tech that can disrupt the traditional hierarchies

Question 38

what is the Gray Zone?

Answer 38

sometimes called hybrid war, its sub threshold activity that doesn’t tip into typical act of war, often blurs the lines of conflict and war

Question 39

what is an example of sub threshold activity in UK?

Answer 39

the Salisbury poisoning, the use of chemical weapons on someone viewed as the enemy, in which innocent people effected by it

Question 40

what are the ‘little green men’?

Answer 40

refers to the use of uninformed soldiers in combat zones e.g russia used them in Crimea

Question 41

how can the conflict in Ukraine be seen as Gray zone conflict?

Answer 41

gray zone between Russia and NATO, America and Europe sending arms to Ukraine and sanctions but doesn’t actually send troops

Question 42

what could see the escalate the gray zone into war?

Answer 42

key issue if china invaded Taiwan and an escalation in Ukraine could tip the scales

Question 43

what was the criticism by realists to 9/11?

Answer 43

realists say America acting like an empire and reacting out of Hubris and an overstretch of power, the reaction would produce more chaos

Question 44

how does the transformation of conflict change war?

Answer 44

in terms of Gray zone and hybrid war, it will not be time of war or peace but using tech to exploit vulnerabilities and influence world politics through other means such as economic and social means

Question 45

what are the key actors for realists?

Answer 45

states are the key actors, and big states change the world and are the ultimate threat

Question 46

how has the range of actors changed in the 21st c?

Answer 46

there are many non-state actors that now drive international politics such as Elon Musk and organisations such as google.
the space race used to be driven by NASA but is now driven by private companies

Question 47

what did Bruno Latour believe was the actor to change the planet?

Answer 47

Latour believed climate change could be understood as a political actor, this view goes beyond realism.

Question 48

how can climate change be seen as international actor?

Answer 48

climate change will shape the geography of the planet and affect states which will be one of the biggest challenges ahead, the reality of international politics will be disrupted and States will face geological threats that could lead to war

Question 49

what is the concern with the future city and conflict?

Answer 49

with tech accelartion and increasing size of city populations with access to latest tech and cyber, the concern is congested nature of warfare and climate change which can lead to social collapse

Question 50

what do liberals say on the future of tech and innovation?

Answer 50

new tech, cyber, robots, Ai, etc will improve life but could be dangerous e.g what could terror groups do with this tech

Question 51

how do tactics of war change for the future?

Answer 51

liberal states working towards non lethal tactics and solutions in attempt to make war more precise and safer.
the use of drones can lead to collateral damage but uses precise attack and limits the kill zone