Ch 2 Mindset

Question 1

Accuracy

Answer 1

Extent to which our beliefs reflect the way things actually are. Concept of accuracy not only applies to our binary beliefs but also to degrees of confidence.

Question 2

Argument

Answer 2

A series of claims presented as support for a conclusion

Question 3

Bias Blindspot

Answer 3

The tendency to fail to recognise biases as they affect us, even when we recognise them in others

Question 4

Biased Evaluation

Answer 4

Evaluating the strength of potential evidence in a way that is influenced by our initial view, whether it is motivated or not. This is one mechanism that leds to confirmation bias.

Question 5

Binary Belief

Answer 5

Treating beliefs as if they are on/off. (right/wrong)

Question 6

Considering the opposite

Answer 6

A technique to reduce biased evaluation of evidence, where we ask ourselves one of two questions: 1) How would I have treated this evidence if I had the opposite belief? 2) How would I have treated this evidence if it went the opposite way?

Question 7

Decoupling

Answer 7

Separating our prior degree of confidence in a claim from our assessments of the strength of a new argument or a new piece of evidence about that claim.

Question 8

Degrees of Confidence

Answer 8

Treating beliefs as coming with different level of certainty. Eg. x is true, x is probably true, x might be true, x is probably not true

Question 9

Evaluation Stage

Answer 9

The second stage in the reasoning process, when we assess the strength of the potential evidence we have gathered

Question 10

Evidence

Answer 10

A fact is evidence for a claim if coming to know it should make us more confident in that claim

Question 11

Introspection Illusion

Answer 11

The misguided assumption that our own cognitive biases are transparent to us, and as a result, that we can diagnose these biases in ourselves through introspection

Question 12

Optional Stopping

Answer 12

Allowing the search for evidence to end hen convenient; this may skew the evidence if (perhaps unbeknownst to us) we are more likely to stop looking when the evidence collected so far supports our first or favoured view

Question 13

Possibility Freeze

Answer 13

The tendency to only consider one or two possibilities in detail, and thereby end up too confident that they are correct

Question 14

Restricted Search

Answer 14

The tendency not to seek out the full range of alternative views or the full range of evidence that favours each view. Along with biased evaluation, restricted search is an instance of confirmation bias

Question 15

Search Stage

Answer 15

The first stage of the reasoning process, where we identify a range of possibilities and any evidence that may support them

Question 16

Updating on the Evidence

Answer 16

Revising our prior beliefs in response to new evidence, so that the confidence we have in a belief will match its degree of support

Question 17

Updating Stage

Answer 17

The third and final stage in the reasoning process, when we revise our degree of confidence appropriately