causal arguments Flashcards
cum hoc ergo propter hoc
“with the thing therefore because of it”
the fallacy of assuming that because two factors are correlated, there must be a causal connection between the two
post hoc ergo propter hoc
“after the thing therefore because of that”
the fallacy of assuming that because B happens after A, it must have been caused by A
negative scalar
as A increases, B decreases
positive scalar
as A increases, B increases
negative binary
A occurs less often with B
positive binary
A occurs more often with B
mere chance
a type of misleading correlation in which the correlation is a complete accident
reverse causation
swimmer’s body illusion
common cause
when A and B are correlated because they are both caused by some third factor
side effect
when A and B are correlated due to a mere side effect of one of the factors
(i.e. placebo effect)
placebo effect
a positive effect arising from the expectation that an intervention will be effective
regression to the mean
the tendency, when data points lie outside the mean, for adjacent data points to lie closer to the mean
confounding variables
a third factor responsible for a correlation between A and B, where not being aware of the factor might make one think that A and B are causally related
features of gold-standard experiments
controlling for placebo
double-blinded study
prospective randomization
pre-registering the trial
contributory vs. primary cause
contributary helps event X to occur but it is neither necessary nor sufficient, primary stands out as the most “out of the ordinary”
causally necessary vs. sufficient conditions
causally necessary conditions are required for the event to occur, sufficient conditions guarantee that the event will occur
proximate vs. distal causes
proximate causes are immediately responsible for the event, distal causes are responsible only through intermediate causes
illusory correlation
when there appears to be correlation between two factors but their isn’t
