CAIA Book 2 Flashcards
What do advanced versions of the CAPM such as multi beta CAPM capture?
Multi beta CAPM captures risk exposures not explained by the market portfolio
Why are traditional asset pricing models like CAPM not easily applied to commodities?
According to the CAPM risks can be segmented into systematic (market) risk and unsystematic (firm specific) risk. MPT tells us that unsystematic risk can be diversified away so the investor is only compensated for systematic risk in the form of a market risk premium. For commodities it is difficult to differentiate between systematic and unsystematic risk using the CAPM because it’s application is commonly used on a portfolio of financial assets.
Why is the concept of international diversification irrelevant with regards to commodities?
Commodity prices are determined by international supply and demand, making the concept of international diversification irrelevant
How does one gain access to the commodities market via a pure play investment?
Investing in a firm with all or a significant portion of its revenue tied to a specific commodity
Three Advantages of investing in commodities futures markets
Commodity futures are traded on an organized exchange
Delivery of the commodity is not required to close the futures position
Futures contracts can be purchased without paying the full commodity price
Differences between commodity swaps and forward contracts and futures contracts
Swaps and forwards are customized privately negotiated instruments between two parties
Swaps and forward contracts trade OTC
Swaps and forwards trade out of the view of the public
Commodity Linked Notes
Combines a standard interest paying debt instrument with either a commodity futures contract or an option on commodity prices. The bond investor accepts a lower coupon payment on the debt instrument in exchange for receiving the upside potential from commodity prices.
Advantages of investing in Commodity Linked Notes
Investor does not have to worry about rolling futures contracts to maintain long term exposure
Since a commodity linked note is effectively a bond, it can be a means to avoid violating any restrictions an investor may have against investing in commodities
Any tracking error issues with a specific commodity are the responsibility of the note issuer, not the investor
Commodity Exchange Traded Funds
Investment funds that trade over an exchange and seek to replicate the returns on a commodity, a basket of commodities, or an index. An example of an EFT that follows a single commodity is UNG, which replicates the returns on US natural gas.
Futures prices
Futures prices are a function of the current price of an asset today (spot price), and the carrying costs involved with holding the asset until expiration of the futures contract
Under what conditions could a trader make a profit by using a reverse cash and carry arbitrage strategy?
If the price of a futures contract is greater than the price implied by the futures pricing relationship, a trader could make a risk free profit by using a cash and carry arbitrage strategy
Steps in the cash and carry arbitrage strategy when a futures contract is greater than the price implied by the futures pricing relationship
Sell a futures contract at the current futures price
Borrow cash at the risk free rate for the term of the futures contract
Use the borrowed funds to buy the underlying asset at the current spot price
Deliver the underlying asset to settle the futures contract and receive the futures price
Repay the interest and principal on the loan
If the price of a futures contract is lower than the price implied by the futures trading relationship, a trader could make a risk free profit by using the following steps to execute a reverse cash and carry arbitrage strategy.
Buy a futures contract at the current futures price
Sell the underlying asset short at the current spot price
Lend cash received from the short sale at the risk free rate
Collect loan proceeds, plus interest
Use the collected loan proceeds to take delivery of the asset at the futures price and cover the short sale commitment
Interest Rate Parity Theorem
The forward exchange rate measured in domestic currency per unit of foreign currency, must be related to the spot exchange rate and the interest rate differential between the domestic and foreign currency.
The difference in interest rates between two countries determines the difference in the countries’ exchange rates.
Convenience Yield
Reflects a return from holding the physical asset. The convenience yield reduces the cost of ownership for a physical asset the same way receiving a dividend reduces the cost of ownership for a financial asset.
Mispriced arbitrage opportunities in the commodity markets
Overpriced commodity futures can create a cash and carry arbitrage opportunity
Underpriced commodity futures are generally difficult to exploit through reverse cash and carry arbitrage
Normal Backwardation
A price pattern where the futures price is below the expected future spot price and converges so that price from below over time
Contango Market
A price pattern where the futures price is above the expected future spot price and converges to that price from above over time
How are futures contracts commonly used to hedge the risk of loss that commodity producers face
To reduce the risk of declining commodity prices, a firm could sell futures contracts
Backwardated commodity markets
Backwardated commodity markets are based on the relationship between hedgers and speculators. The theory suggests that hedgers will tend to hold more short contracts than long contracts. Since hedgers are risk averse they are willing to accept a lower futures price.
Contango markets
Assumes that hedgers are net long futures contracts rather than net short. A contango market suggests that when hedgers are net long futures contracts, they must pay a premium above the expected future spot price in order to coax speculators to take the corresponding short positions.
Commodity prices should be negatively correlated to the prices of stocks and bonds for the following reasons:
Inflation is positively related to commodities prices but negatively related to the prices of stocks and bonds
The time period for expectations is different for commodity futures (short term), than for stocks and bonds (long term).
The production process can result in a trade off between the cost of capital and the cost of raw materials. When the cost of capital rises, the cost of raw materials falls and vice versa.
What is the impact of rising commodity prices on inflation and short term interest rates?
As the prices of commodities increases, inflation also increases, which will cause short term interest rates to rise. Higher levels of short term interest rates result in higher interest rates on margin deposits and, therefore lower returns to investors in stocks and bonds.
In general, how are the returns on commodities distributed?
Commodities in general have positively skewed distributions as a result of price increases caused by unexpected supply reductions.