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Politics > C4 - Voting behaviour and the media > Flashcards

C4 - Voting behaviour and the media Flashcards

1
Q

What was the Beveridge report

A

Said that there would be 5 giants for the uk to face after the war. Recommended an NHS and welfare state.

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2
Q

When was bevridge report

A

1942

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3
Q

The conservative campaign - 1945

A

Based on churchills personality. Churchills gestapo speech about NHS, made him look out of touch.

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4
Q

Labour campaign 1945

A

Offered nation radical change, including NHS and nationalising of industries

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5
Q

Results / turnout 1945

A

Labour gained over 200 seats, won with large majority. Turnout high at 72.8% - with many first time voters.

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6
Q

Why did labour win 1945

A

Valence - Were successfully able to persuade voters they were capable of rebuilding post war (bevridge report ), as well as the wartime coalition making them look like a credible party and many MPs held high positions ( ministry of labour, home office )
Recognition that NHS was needed - making the bevridge report their manifesto
Rational choice

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7
Q

Lead up to 1979 election

A

Economy taken a hit , labour govt. approached IMF for bail out in 76
Mass trade union unrest in years leading up.
Winter of discontent ( 78-79 )
Loss of vote of confidence in HoC made Callaghan call a general election.

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8
Q

Labour manifesto - 1979

A

Claimed thatcher would take country radically to right
Moderate manifesto, centrist policies

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9
Q

Conservative manifesto 1979

A

Moderate manifesto , similar to labour, moderation in changes they wanted to see

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10
Q

Conservative campaign - 1979

A

Modern advertising, photo opportunities

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11
Q

Labour campaign 1979

A

Focused on strong support for Callaghan ( was 20% above thatcher in who would make a better pm polls)

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12
Q

Results / turnout 1979

A

Conservative large majority, turnout high at 76%

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13
Q

Heads of parties 1979

A

Jeremy Thorpe - liberals - gay lover scandal
Thatcher - conservatives
James Callaghan - labour

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14
Q

AB Social class

A

Higher managerial, administrative

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15
Q

C1 social class

A

Supervisory, clerical, junior managerial

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16
Q

C2

A

Skilled manual

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17
Q

DE

A

Semi skilled manual and unemployed

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18
Q

class dealignment

A

how the social classes are voting in far fewer numbers for the politically party they would traditionally vote for

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19
Q

factors affecting 1979 - leaders

A

not a lot - Callaghan of labour had a more favourable image than thatcher (seen as reliable/ likeable whereas thatcher was posh/distant)

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20
Q

factors affecting 1979 - valence

A

alot - Labour image had suffered as they were unable to deal with the trade union strikes and winter of discontent. Callaghan also lost a vote of no confidence, making him call an election.

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21
Q

factors affecting 1979 - Policy and manifestos

A

many voters wanted a party who could deal with the Trade unions, That was seen to be the conservatives

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22
Q

factors affecting 1979 - Events in the campaign

A

alot - winter of discontent left voters unhappy with labour. For the Lib Dems there was also Jeremy Thorpe’s gay sex scandal

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23
Q

factors affecting 1979 - class and gender

A

at the time there was a steep decline in the number of people calling themselves “working class” - may have eroded labour voters. The middle class was growing leading to more conservative voters

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24
Q

factors affecting 1979 - rational choice

A

big - conservatives seen as better more rational choice for people to end the trade union strikes

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25
Q

1997 - labour manifesto

A

knew they had to appeal to middle class, so manifesto used to win them over (tough on law and order, key commitments on education and health, follow conservative economic plans, constitutional reforms like devolution )

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26
Q

1997 - Conservative manifesto

A

wanted to stress they had a lot to offer after 18 years. Pledged to help the poorer in society, but also have less state involvement so people had more control over their lives.

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27
Q

factors affecting 1997 - conservative media and campaign

A
  • conservative election broadcast was boring, just Major talking to the camera
  • conservative message wavered between “Labour is just stealing conservative ideas” and “new labour being the same as old labour”
    -conservative campaign had a backdrop of a series of sex and fiscal scandals involving conservatives.
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28
Q

factors affecting 1997 - Labour media and campaign

A
  • election broadcast was upbeat and colourful
  • The sun endorsed the Labour party (v. influential paper)
  • Labours messages controlled by spin doctors (public relations people) who fed stories to media
  • won support of most of the press
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29
Q

factors affecting 1997 - conservative policy

A
  • not very memorable
  • largely a continuation
  • tax allowance proposal to encourage traditional nuclear families
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30
Q

factors affecting 1997 - Labour policy

A
  • more centrist position , focused on education, NHS maintaining conservative tax rates and devolution
  • changed wording of clause IV which made them a socialist party and contained their commitment to nationalise key industries
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31
Q

factors affecting 1997 - Party leaders - John Major

A
  • more “traditional” style came across poorly against more modern Blair.
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32
Q

factors affecting 1997 - Party leaders - Tony Blair

A
  • young, charismatic . Became focal point of Labour campaign and appeared more relevant
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33
Q

factors affecting 1997 - Valence issues - Conservatives

A
  • various scandals
  • divided and arguing over EU membership
  • crisis of “Black Wednesday” meant Major had to take UK out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, meaning the value of the pound decreased significantly, damaged party image of being fiscally responsible
34
Q

factors affecting 1997 - Valence - Labour

A
  • able to present themselves as united and modern, and campaign allowed them to be seen as coordinated and not like the scandal ridden govt.
35
Q

factors affecting 1997 - socio economic factors - Conservative

A
  • increase in partisan dealignment and class dealignment meant that previous C voters were more open to voting L
  • C had a much smaller lead amongst middle class voters than in 92 as labour pop. went up
36
Q

factors affecting 1997 - socio economic factors - Labour

A
  • Labour pursued support of the middle class
  • more swing voters as partisan dealignment trend continued
37
Q

factors affecting 1997 - Class, Ethnicity, Gender

A
  • conservatives dominated AB vote (10% more than Labour). Labour tied C1 and led with C2DE votes.
  • Labour beat conservatives with 43% of white voters and 70% of non white voters
  • gender had no impact, both equally likely to support labour
38
Q

outcome of 1997

A

labour won large majority with around 420 seats

39
Q

situation pre 2010

A
  • Brown’s reputation hampered by 2008 financial crisis, also seen as an insecure bully (threw a shoe at an aide)
  • Brown also seen as indecisive as he was considering calling a snap election in first few months after replacing Blair but didn’t
  • Cameron became leader of C in 2005, modernised the party - focusing on green issues and “hug a hoodie” campaign
    -Nick clegg- modernised party image by committing to spending cuts.
40
Q

Manifestos 2010

A

all manifestos similar (cut the deficit)
C - Tories would cut faster and more
LD+L - agreed on less govt. control in education, more money for NHS, and pension protection.
- disagreed on ideas like tax breaks for married couples and idea of introducing AV

41
Q

lead up to 2010

A

-economic crash
- no major difference between C and L in polls
- Labour losing support to parties like the Lib Demsf

42
Q

factors affecting 2010 - media

A

Cleggmania - Nick clegg presented as the person who can bring politics into the future
Sun switched support to conservatives
first use of televised debates between party leaders, brown was seen as wooden - constantly saying “I agree with Nick”, Clegg came across as more natural

43
Q

factors affecting 2010 - FPTP/voting system

A

Lib dems increased vote share from 22% in 2005 to 24%, but lost 3 seats

44
Q

factors affecting 2010 - opinion polls

A

Clegg shown to be almost as popular as Churchill, however party still lost seats.
Brown was unpopular and labour lost seats but still had 255.

45
Q

factors affecting 2010 - valence - Labour

A
  • Labour rep. hampered by 2008 financial crisis and bad state of economy in 2010
  • Labour party divided over Browns leadership
46
Q

factors affecting 2010 - valence - Conservatives

A
  • conservatives seen as party that does well with the economy
  • Cameron promised to cut taxes but prioritise economic stability and strong public services
47
Q

factors affecting 2010 - leaders

A

Clegg v. popular. Brown unpopular. Cameron signalled a shift toward more centrist policies

48
Q

factors affecting 2010 - campaign

A

C campaigned against “nasty party” image - “hug a hoodie”, they targeted seats they needed to win carefully, but Cameron struggled to get past his perceived lack of experience
disastrous campaign for L - Brown called an old woman “bigoted”
magnificent campaign for LD

49
Q

2010 results

A

hung Parliament -

50
Q

2019 opinions on Brexit from parties

A

C - “get Brexit done”
L - 2nd referendum
LD - Remain in Eu

51
Q

results of 2019

A

C - Landslide 365 seats (43% vote)
L - 203 seats (32%)
LD - 11 (11%)

52
Q

factors affecting 2019 - age, class, gender, region

A

age - younger voters voted L, older voted C, LD split evenly
class - no bearing, conservatives won among all socio-economic groups (AB-DE gap for Tories was 1% and their best class was C2)
gender - men voted conservative over labour by a 19 point margin, women did by 6 points
region - Labours “red wall” turned blue

53
Q

factors affecting 2019 - leaders, Brexit

A

leaders - 49% of voters said Boris would make best PM, 31% said Corbyn.
Brexit - 47% remain voters voted L 21% LD, 73% leave voted C

54
Q

deviant voting

A

when someone doesn’t vote the way we expect, given social characteristics. examples are working class conservatives, or wealthy L supporters

55
Q

floating voters

A

a voter who votes unpredictably in different elections and changes their mind

56
Q

core voters

A

voters who will invariably support one of the main parties, mostly fall into patterns of social class

57
Q

partisan dealignment and causes

A

core vote for the major parties shrinking
causes: - smaller difference in parties since Blair modernised labour
- issue voting
- emergence of alternative parties that split vote and attract core voters

58
Q

abstention

A

refusing to vote, especially by young people. Because of a lack of a party to represent them, or protesting the state of politics

59
Q

apathy/disillusionment

A

affects the attitudes of young and poor specifically. Belief that politics doesn’t take into account interests of young and v. poor.

60
Q

2019 apathy stats

A

47% young people (18-24) voted, 74% for 65+
L did v. badly

61
Q

valence

A

where most of electorate share similar views on an issue, they may decide based on competency and likeability.
e.g 2008 financial crisis
how united a party is holds importance

62
Q

rational choice/ issue voting

A

theory that people can calculate what’s best for them and do that.
e.g. 2019 Brexit - rational choice major impact
e.g. 1945 - NHS - large rational choice impact

63
Q

expressive / altruistic rational choice voting

A

doing something for the greater good

64
Q

instrumental voting

A

doing something for yourself

65
Q

qualities of a good leader

A
  • record in office
  • compassion
  • decisiveness
  • apparent honesty
  • strong leadership
  • clear vision
  • communication skills
66
Q

party leaders as factor at elections

A

not that big an impact
1979 - Callaghan led Thatcher by 20% in polls but lost
1997 - Blair had an extremely positive image
2010 - Cleggmania
2015 - Cameron had a better image than Labours ed Miliband

67
Q

tactical voting

A
  • many votes under FPTP are “wasted”
  • when voters realise their first choice is wasted so they vote for their second choice
    2019 - estimated 25% tactical voting
68
Q

print media / the press

A

Broadcast media
Tabloid media
Magazines

69
Q

Radio

A

News Headlines
Commercial Radio
BBC Radio

70
Q

TV

A

News broadcasts
Party political broadcasts
News channels
Political programming

71
Q

online media / social media

A

opinion polls
blogs
social media platforms

72
Q

newspapers political affiliations and % of readers supporting their preferred party (Daily mail, Mirror, Express, Guardian)

A

Daily Mail - Conservative - 74%
Mirror - Labour - 68%
Express - UKIP - 77%
Guardian - Labour - 73%

73
Q

examples of how the sun is v. influential

A

1992 - Ridiculed Neil Kinnick as unfit to be PM - Labour lost - conservatives said “its the sun wot won it”
1997 - backed Blair - Blair won - said “its the sun wot swung it”

74
Q

newspaper circulation in recent years

A

has fallen, so reduced effect on elections

75
Q

broadcast media and effect on elections

A
  • broadcasters required to remain neutral/unbiased in coverage (ones paid for by TV license)
  • policed by Ofcom
  • Tv news is losing influence, a lot less people watch TV
76
Q

TV debates and their impact

A

2010 - Nick Clegg given equal coverage to Cameron and Brown, made Clegg mania and boosted opinion polls, yet clegg lost seats and only gained 1% vote share
2017 - May decided not to join the leaders debate gave opposition the opportunity to ridicule her
- overall, not that significant as people make up their minds on who to vote for before it happens

77
Q

influence of broadcasters on elections

A

2015 - 62% of people cited the TV as their major influence in deciding how to vote, 25% saying newspapers
- but they’re neutral

78
Q

online media and social media

A
  • Ofcom suggests that 49% of adults in Britain get news from social media
    2017 - Labour’s activists used Facebook, twitter and Instagram to spread Labours message (Corbyn’s popularity in 2017 seemed related to a surge in Labour’s youth vote, attributed to a set of social media strategies). Labours Facebook page also a lot more popular than that of the conservatives
    2017 - 64% adults sourced news online, same proportion voted labour
79
Q

opinion polls

A

-polling companies, like YouGov, Ipsos Mori ask thousands of voters how their going to vote regularly. Use this to form an idea for support of parties

80
Q

opinion polls are effective

A

2017 French election - opinion polls v. accurate
YouGov’s first 2019 poll was accurate
2019 - BBC was V. accurate polling

81
Q

opinion polls not effective

A
  • don’t know sample of people their polling. so data can’t be extrapolated
  • different polling companies give different outcomes
  • 2010 election shows polls are wrong, Nick Clegg predicted high vote, he lost 1 seat
  • 2017 - only YouGov predicted the hung parliament
  • polls don’t tell how votes will be converted to seats in HoC
  • give a range of what results can be
82
Q

MRP polling

A

more accurate as it takes in to account various factors that influence voting such as age, income, education level etc. and predicts the outcome of each constituency to give an accurate model of the outcome of an election.
2017 - YouGov’s MRP model correctly predicted result - including shock wins for labour in conservative seats such as in Kensington or Canterbury.

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