C4 - Voting behaviour and the media Flashcards
What was the Beveridge report
Said that there would be 5 giants for the uk to face after the war. Recommended an NHS and welfare state.
When was bevridge report
1942
The conservative campaign - 1945
Based on churchills personality. Churchills gestapo speech about NHS, made him look out of touch.
Labour campaign 1945
Offered nation radical change, including NHS and nationalising of industries
Results / turnout 1945
Labour gained over 200 seats, won with large majority. Turnout high at 72.8% - with many first time voters.
Why did labour win 1945
Valence - Were successfully able to persuade voters they were capable of rebuilding post war (bevridge report ), as well as the wartime coalition making them look like a credible party and many MPs held high positions ( ministry of labour, home office )
Recognition that NHS was needed - making the bevridge report their manifesto
Rational choice
Lead up to 1979 election
Economy taken a hit , labour govt. approached IMF for bail out in 76
Mass trade union unrest in years leading up.
Winter of discontent ( 78-79 )
Loss of vote of confidence in HoC made Callaghan call a general election.
Labour manifesto - 1979
Claimed thatcher would take country radically to right
Moderate manifesto, centrist policies
Conservative manifesto 1979
Moderate manifesto , similar to labour, moderation in changes they wanted to see
Conservative campaign - 1979
Modern advertising, photo opportunities
Labour campaign 1979
Focused on strong support for Callaghan ( was 20% above thatcher in who would make a better pm polls)
Results / turnout 1979
Conservative large majority, turnout high at 76%
Heads of parties 1979
Jeremy Thorpe - liberals - gay lover scandal
Thatcher - conservatives
James Callaghan - labour
AB Social class
Higher managerial, administrative
C1 social class
Supervisory, clerical, junior managerial
C2
Skilled manual
DE
Semi skilled manual and unemployed
class dealignment
how the social classes are voting in far fewer numbers for the politically party they would traditionally vote for
factors affecting 1979 - leaders
not a lot - Callaghan of labour had a more favourable image than thatcher (seen as reliable/ likeable whereas thatcher was posh/distant)
factors affecting 1979 - valence
alot - Labour image had suffered as they were unable to deal with the trade union strikes and winter of discontent. Callaghan also lost a vote of no confidence, making him call an election.
factors affecting 1979 - Policy and manifestos
many voters wanted a party who could deal with the Trade unions, That was seen to be the conservatives
factors affecting 1979 - Events in the campaign
alot - winter of discontent left voters unhappy with labour. For the Lib Dems there was also Jeremy Thorpe’s gay sex scandal
factors affecting 1979 - class and gender
at the time there was a steep decline in the number of people calling themselves “working class” - may have eroded labour voters. The middle class was growing leading to more conservative voters
factors affecting 1979 - rational choice
big - conservatives seen as better more rational choice for people to end the trade union strikes
1997 - labour manifesto
knew they had to appeal to middle class, so manifesto used to win them over (tough on law and order, key commitments on education and health, follow conservative economic plans, constitutional reforms like devolution )
1997 - Conservative manifesto
wanted to stress they had a lot to offer after 18 years. Pledged to help the poorer in society, but also have less state involvement so people had more control over their lives.
factors affecting 1997 - conservative media and campaign
- conservative election broadcast was boring, just Major talking to the camera
- conservative message wavered between “Labour is just stealing conservative ideas” and “new labour being the same as old labour”
-conservative campaign had a backdrop of a series of sex and fiscal scandals involving conservatives.
factors affecting 1997 - Labour media and campaign
- election broadcast was upbeat and colourful
- The sun endorsed the Labour party (v. influential paper)
- Labours messages controlled by spin doctors (public relations people) who fed stories to media
- won support of most of the press
factors affecting 1997 - conservative policy
- not very memorable
- largely a continuation
- tax allowance proposal to encourage traditional nuclear families
factors affecting 1997 - Labour policy
- more centrist position , focused on education, NHS maintaining conservative tax rates and devolution
- changed wording of clause IV which made them a socialist party and contained their commitment to nationalise key industries
factors affecting 1997 - Party leaders - John Major
- more “traditional” style came across poorly against more modern Blair.
factors affecting 1997 - Party leaders - Tony Blair
- young, charismatic . Became focal point of Labour campaign and appeared more relevant
factors affecting 1997 - Valence issues - Conservatives
- various scandals
- divided and arguing over EU membership
- crisis of “Black Wednesday” meant Major had to take UK out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, meaning the value of the pound decreased significantly, damaged party image of being fiscally responsible
factors affecting 1997 - Valence - Labour
- able to present themselves as united and modern, and campaign allowed them to be seen as coordinated and not like the scandal ridden govt.
factors affecting 1997 - socio economic factors - Conservative
- increase in partisan dealignment and class dealignment meant that previous C voters were more open to voting L
- C had a much smaller lead amongst middle class voters than in 92 as labour pop. went up
factors affecting 1997 - socio economic factors - Labour
- Labour pursued support of the middle class
- more swing voters as partisan dealignment trend continued
factors affecting 1997 - Class, Ethnicity, Gender
- conservatives dominated AB vote (10% more than Labour). Labour tied C1 and led with C2DE votes.
- Labour beat conservatives with 43% of white voters and 70% of non white voters
- gender had no impact, both equally likely to support labour
outcome of 1997
labour won large majority with around 420 seats
situation pre 2010
- Brown’s reputation hampered by 2008 financial crisis, also seen as an insecure bully (threw a shoe at an aide)
- Brown also seen as indecisive as he was considering calling a snap election in first few months after replacing Blair but didn’t
- Cameron became leader of C in 2005, modernised the party - focusing on green issues and “hug a hoodie” campaign
-Nick clegg- modernised party image by committing to spending cuts.
Manifestos 2010
all manifestos similar (cut the deficit)
C - Tories would cut faster and more
LD+L - agreed on less govt. control in education, more money for NHS, and pension protection.
- disagreed on ideas like tax breaks for married couples and idea of introducing AV
lead up to 2010
-economic crash
- no major difference between C and L in polls
- Labour losing support to parties like the Lib Demsf
factors affecting 2010 - media
Cleggmania - Nick clegg presented as the person who can bring politics into the future
Sun switched support to conservatives
first use of televised debates between party leaders, brown was seen as wooden - constantly saying “I agree with Nick”, Clegg came across as more natural
factors affecting 2010 - FPTP/voting system
Lib dems increased vote share from 22% in 2005 to 24%, but lost 3 seats
factors affecting 2010 - opinion polls
Clegg shown to be almost as popular as Churchill, however party still lost seats.
Brown was unpopular and labour lost seats but still had 255.
factors affecting 2010 - valence - Labour
- Labour rep. hampered by 2008 financial crisis and bad state of economy in 2010
- Labour party divided over Browns leadership
factors affecting 2010 - valence - Conservatives
- conservatives seen as party that does well with the economy
- Cameron promised to cut taxes but prioritise economic stability and strong public services
factors affecting 2010 - leaders
Clegg v. popular. Brown unpopular. Cameron signalled a shift toward more centrist policies
factors affecting 2010 - campaign
C campaigned against “nasty party” image - “hug a hoodie”, they targeted seats they needed to win carefully, but Cameron struggled to get past his perceived lack of experience
disastrous campaign for L - Brown called an old woman “bigoted”
magnificent campaign for LD
2010 results
hung Parliament -
2019 opinions on Brexit from parties
C - “get Brexit done”
L - 2nd referendum
LD - Remain in Eu
results of 2019
C - Landslide 365 seats (43% vote)
L - 203 seats (32%)
LD - 11 (11%)
factors affecting 2019 - age, class, gender, region
age - younger voters voted L, older voted C, LD split evenly
class - no bearing, conservatives won among all socio-economic groups (AB-DE gap for Tories was 1% and their best class was C2)
gender - men voted conservative over labour by a 19 point margin, women did by 6 points
region - Labours “red wall” turned blue
factors affecting 2019 - leaders, Brexit
leaders - 49% of voters said Boris would make best PM, 31% said Corbyn.
Brexit - 47% remain voters voted L 21% LD, 73% leave voted C
deviant voting
when someone doesn’t vote the way we expect, given social characteristics. examples are working class conservatives, or wealthy L supporters
floating voters
a voter who votes unpredictably in different elections and changes their mind
core voters
voters who will invariably support one of the main parties, mostly fall into patterns of social class
partisan dealignment and causes
core vote for the major parties shrinking
causes: - smaller difference in parties since Blair modernised labour
- issue voting
- emergence of alternative parties that split vote and attract core voters
abstention
refusing to vote, especially by young people. Because of a lack of a party to represent them, or protesting the state of politics
apathy/disillusionment
affects the attitudes of young and poor specifically. Belief that politics doesn’t take into account interests of young and v. poor.
2019 apathy stats
47% young people (18-24) voted, 74% for 65+
L did v. badly
valence
where most of electorate share similar views on an issue, they may decide based on competency and likeability.
e.g 2008 financial crisis
how united a party is holds importance
rational choice/ issue voting
theory that people can calculate what’s best for them and do that.
e.g. 2019 Brexit - rational choice major impact
e.g. 1945 - NHS - large rational choice impact
expressive / altruistic rational choice voting
doing something for the greater good
instrumental voting
doing something for yourself
qualities of a good leader
- record in office
- compassion
- decisiveness
- apparent honesty
- strong leadership
- clear vision
- communication skills
party leaders as factor at elections
not that big an impact
1979 - Callaghan led Thatcher by 20% in polls but lost
1997 - Blair had an extremely positive image
2010 - Cleggmania
2015 - Cameron had a better image than Labours ed Miliband
tactical voting
- many votes under FPTP are “wasted”
- when voters realise their first choice is wasted so they vote for their second choice
2019 - estimated 25% tactical voting
print media / the press
Broadcast media
Tabloid media
Magazines
Radio
News Headlines
Commercial Radio
BBC Radio
TV
News broadcasts
Party political broadcasts
News channels
Political programming
online media / social media
opinion polls
blogs
social media platforms
newspapers political affiliations and % of readers supporting their preferred party (Daily mail, Mirror, Express, Guardian)
Daily Mail - Conservative - 74%
Mirror - Labour - 68%
Express - UKIP - 77%
Guardian - Labour - 73%
examples of how the sun is v. influential
1992 - Ridiculed Neil Kinnick as unfit to be PM - Labour lost - conservatives said “its the sun wot won it”
1997 - backed Blair - Blair won - said “its the sun wot swung it”
newspaper circulation in recent years
has fallen, so reduced effect on elections
broadcast media and effect on elections
- broadcasters required to remain neutral/unbiased in coverage (ones paid for by TV license)
- policed by Ofcom
- Tv news is losing influence, a lot less people watch TV
TV debates and their impact
2010 - Nick Clegg given equal coverage to Cameron and Brown, made Clegg mania and boosted opinion polls, yet clegg lost seats and only gained 1% vote share
2017 - May decided not to join the leaders debate gave opposition the opportunity to ridicule her
- overall, not that significant as people make up their minds on who to vote for before it happens
influence of broadcasters on elections
2015 - 62% of people cited the TV as their major influence in deciding how to vote, 25% saying newspapers
- but they’re neutral
online media and social media
- Ofcom suggests that 49% of adults in Britain get news from social media
2017 - Labour’s activists used Facebook, twitter and Instagram to spread Labours message (Corbyn’s popularity in 2017 seemed related to a surge in Labour’s youth vote, attributed to a set of social media strategies). Labours Facebook page also a lot more popular than that of the conservatives
2017 - 64% adults sourced news online, same proportion voted labour
opinion polls
-polling companies, like YouGov, Ipsos Mori ask thousands of voters how their going to vote regularly. Use this to form an idea for support of parties
opinion polls are effective
2017 French election - opinion polls v. accurate
YouGov’s first 2019 poll was accurate
2019 - BBC was V. accurate polling
opinion polls not effective
- don’t know sample of people their polling. so data can’t be extrapolated
- different polling companies give different outcomes
- 2010 election shows polls are wrong, Nick Clegg predicted high vote, he lost 1 seat
- 2017 - only YouGov predicted the hung parliament
- polls don’t tell how votes will be converted to seats in HoC
- give a range of what results can be
MRP polling
more accurate as it takes in to account various factors that influence voting such as age, income, education level etc. and predicts the outcome of each constituency to give an accurate model of the outcome of an election.
2017 - YouGov’s MRP model correctly predicted result - including shock wins for labour in conservative seats such as in Kensington or Canterbury.
