Brehm CH 4 Flashcards

1
Q

What is operational risk?

A

risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people or systems or from external events (includes legal risk, but excludes strategic and reputational)

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
2
Q

What are 7 examples of operational risk? (category level 1)

A

(1) Internal fraud: intentionally misreporting positions, employee theft, insider trading

(2) External fraud: robbery, forgery, cheque kiting

(3) Employment practices and workplace safety: customer slip and fall

(4) Clients, products, and business practices: fiduciary breaches, misuse of confidential customer info, money laundering, sale of unauthorized products

(5) Damage to physical assets: terrorism, vandalism, EQs, fires, and floods

(6) Business disruption and system failures: hard/software failures, telecommunication problems and utility outages

(7) Execution, delivery, and process management: data entry errors, collateral management failures, incomplete legal documentation, vendor disputes

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
3
Q

What are the principal causes of US insurer insolvency according to a 2004 A.M Best study?

A

(1) Deficient loss reserves
(2) Rapid Growth
(3) Alledged fraud
(4) Overstated assets
(5) Cats
(6) Reinsurance failure

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
4
Q

What is cycle management?

A

prudent management of UW capacity as market pricing fluctuates through the UW cycle
can achieve success by focusing on intellectual property, underwriter incentives, market overreaction, and owner education

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
5
Q

What is intellectual property and how can it improve cycle management?

A

includes experts in uw, claims, actuarial; proprietary databases, forecasting systems, market relationships and reputation
prudent managers need to focus on maintaining these assets through the cycle (retain top-talent and develop their skils, maintain a presence in core market channels, consistently invest in systems, models, and databases)

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
6
Q

What are underwriter incentives and how can it improve cycle management?

A

hard-coded bonus formulas for doing well

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
7
Q

What is Market Overreaction and how can it improve cycle management?

A

insurance industry has a proven track record of overreaction in both directions
can prudently manage capacity so that they have most available capacity in the price-improvement phase and stockpile for the small UW loss years

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
8
Q

What is owner education and how can it improve cycle management?

A

owners need to understand that in a soft market their premiums may drop relative to their peers but thats probably a good thing

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
9
Q

What is the agency theory perspective?

A

management are the agents of owners, but agents with potentially divergent interests
goal: understand impacts of divergence and learn how to align incentives
managers can gamble with owners money
paying management with stock options is seen as a solution but has issues: shareholders become more diversified than management, which then becomes more risk averse
big risk when tying compensation to growth metrics.

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
10
Q

What are 5 general operational risks?

A

pension funding issues combine financial and HR: models that incorporate financial risk with firm demographics are needed

IT failure risk: quantified to some degree; monitoring and contingency planning is needed, but quantification and funding of risk is also possible

Other HR risks: loss of important staff (possible misdesign of benefits and comp programs, employee fraud, inade training, incompetence) possibly can purchase insurance for this

reputational risk: product tampering, bad press coverage: need to ID and manage these risks not quantify and fund them

Lawsuits against the firm: monitor behaviors; company culture could maybe make a difference here

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
11
Q

What is control self-assessment?

A

process through which internal control effectiveness is self-examined and assessed
to provide reasonable assurance all business objectives will be met
Primary objectives:
1) reliability and integrity of info
2) compliance with policies, plans, procedures, laws
3) safeguarding of assets
4) economical and efficient use of resources
5) accomplishment of established objectives and goals for operations

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
12
Q

What are key risk indicators (KRIs)?

A

broad category of measures used to monitor the activities and status of the control environment of a business area for a given operational risk
forward-looking, leading indicators of risk
some KRIs:
Production: hit ratios, retention ratios, item count, pricing levels
Internal controls: audit results and frequency
Staffing: employee turnover, training budget, premium per employee
Claims: freq, sev, new classes of loss

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
13
Q

What is six sigma?

A

management framework born out of the manufacturing world
name means customer-specified tolerances are +- 3 SDs from the mean
can help firms identify and eliminate chronic process issues: errors, inefficiencies, gaps in communication
goal is to reduce operational risk
insurer processes that could benefit:
UW: exposure data verification, price component monitoring
Claims: coverage verification, ALAE, use of outside counsel
Reinsurance: treaty claim reporting, coverage verification, reinsurance recoverables, disputes, LOCs and collateralization

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
14
Q

What are some necessary steps for operational risk portfolio management?

A

(1) Identify exposure bases for each key risk source: payroll, head count, policy count
(2) measure exposure level for each BU for each risk source
(3) estimate the loss potential per unit of exposure for each risk
(4) combine (2) and (3) to produce modeled BU loss freq / sev distributions
(5) estimate the impact of mitigation, process improvements, or risk transfer on the BU distributions (significant expert opinion required likely)

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
15
Q

What is the proposed unified definition of strategy?

A

A science and art of planning,
Using political, economic, psychological and organizational resources,
To achieve major organizational goals.

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
16
Q

What is strategy not?

A

(1) Goes beyond pure business planning and considers a wider breadth of issues. Requires understands its market, and its position relative to rivals
(2) Not tactics, tactics are short-term measures; strat is broader themes/features/styles a company may want to exploit

17
Q

What is strategic risk taking?

A

“Corporate strategic moves that cause returns to vary, that involve venturing into the unknown, and that may result in corporate ruin - moves for which the outcomes and probabilities may be only partially known and where hard-to-define goals may not be met.”

18
Q

What are some important elements of strategic risk?

A

Voluntariness of exposure
Controllability of consequences
Discounting in time
Discounting in space
Knowledge of risky situation
Magnitude of impact
Group/individual factors

19
Q

How is strategic risk management categorized?

A
  1. Industry - capital intensiveness, overcapacity, commoditization, deregulation, cycle volatility
  2. Technology - shift, patents, obsolescence
  3. Brand - erosion or collapse
  4. Competitor - global rivals, gainers, unique competitors
  5. Customer - priority shift, power, concentration
  6. Project - failure of R&D, IT, business development, or M&A
  7. Stagnation - flat or declining volume, price decline, weak pipeline
20
Q

Examples of strategic risk for an insurer.

A
  1. Industry:
    Magnitude of risk: very high.
    Insurance markets suffer from all of these conditions.
  2. Technology:
    Magnitude of risk: Low.
    Except for possible innovations in distribution for personal lines via the Internet. One area of potential technological innovation is data management.
  3. Brand
    Magnitude of risk: moderate.
    Essentially, insurance “products” are claim checks. Therefore, it is difficult for insurers to differentiate based on product content. Either the check is good, or it isn’t. Therefore, insurers often differentiate on price or services. If one interprets the insurer’s “brand promise” as including a reputation for fair claims handling, then loss of this reputation through adverse press or class action suits could definitely destroy franchise value.
  4. Competitor
    Magnitude of risk: moderate.
    Predatory pricing is a significant risk, since market share can be grabbed fairly easily by carriers willing to write the coverage at a discount to incumbent carriers.
  5. Customer
    Magnitude of risk: moderate.
    This risk is probably a bigger issue for large commercial insurance business.
  6. Project
    Magnitude of risk: high.
    Companies have a long track record of value-destroying mergers and acquisitions. They are also notoriously small investors in R&D and IT, which is ironic given the nature of the intellectual capital franchise.
  7. Stagnation
    Magnitude of risk: high.
    This risk is highly correlated to cycle volatility management. Insurers have a difficult time redeploying their assets, since they are essentially intellectual assets with a large degree of task specificity and stickiness. Insurers also suffer from extensive reporting lags and potentially mismatched revenue and expense. It could be argued that part of the impetus driving insurers to continue to write business at inadequate prices is the need to fund currentyear fixed costs (“plant” expenses).
21
Q

What are some key elements of scenario planning?

A

The range of future outcomes is simplified into a limited number of possible states called scenarios, each of which tells a story of how various elements might interact under certain conditions.

Scenarios are tested for internal consistency and plausibility.

The scenarios are used to explore the joint impact of various uncertainties.

Scenarios change several variables at one time, trying to capture the new states that will develop after major shocks or deviations in key variables.

Scenarios are more than just simulation output. They include subjective interpretations of factors that often cannot be explicitly modeled.

22
Q

What are the 10 key steps in scenario planning?

A

(1) define the scope (time frame and scope)
(2) identify the major stakeholders
(3) identify basic trends
(4) identify key uncertainties
(5) construct initial scenario themes
(6) check for consistency and plausibility
(7) develop learning scenarios
(8) identify research needs
(9) develop quantitative models
(10) evolve toward decision scenarios - iterative process to converge to scenarios used to test strategies and generate new ideas

23
Q

Agent-Based Modeling and Strategic Interaction Effects

A

risk of negative impacts due to interaction effects of many market participants executing their strategies simulataneously - requires ABM
complex systems have “emergent properties” that arise from interactions of agents