Biases in decision making Flashcards
What is a heuristic
cognitive shortcuts and simplified strategies in order to make decisions “how can i do something quickly to arrive at a decision”
Ex in the framing effect when it was framed in terms of lives being lost the heuristic was to try and avoid that when it was framed in lives being saved the same thing was done the normative would be you loo kat the two and go oh and add them up and relize there the same
How does cognitive bias and heuristics relate
Using heuristics can lead to cognitive bias.
BUT A cognitive bias is not a heuristic the bias is the way in which the decision is affected the heuristic is the quick thinking
What is anchoring bias
Anchoring bias is a cognitive bias where someone relies to heavily on the first piece of information that they are given when making decisions, whether it be relevant or not.
The initial anchor influences one judgment in decision-making and can lead to decision-making being distorted.
results of the Tversky and Kahneman 1974
- Results showed that those who had seen a lower random number gave significantly lower estimates than those who had seen a higher number, despite the number being completely unrelated to the question.
What does anchoring bias tell us about decision making and reliability of decision making in general
Anchoring shows that human decisions are not always based purely on rational thinking but can be significantly distorted by irrelevant starting points.
Anchoring affects the relibaility of decision making because it causes people to be overly dependent on external cues/ the first piece of information there giving instead of actually doing an independent analysis of what is being said. Leading to biased outcomes that might not reflect the true situation.
procuder of the Tversky and Kahneman 1974
- University student Participants were asked to estimate answers to difficult mathematical problems, but before doing so, a “wheel of fortune” spun and landed on a random number (either low like 10 or high like 65).
- Participants were then asked whether the percentage of African countries in the UN was higher or lower than the number that was spun, and then to give their own estimate.
what year was Tversky and Kahneman for Anchoring
1974
Aim of the Tversky and Kahneman 1974 study
To investigate how people use heuristics when making judgments under conditions of uncertainty.
What is the framing effect
A type of cognitive bias where people’s decisions are influenced by how information is presented, rather then the actual information itself.
Specifically, individuals tend to react differently depending on whether it’s worded/framed in terms of potential gains (positive framing) or potential losses (negative framing).
what does Tversky and Kahneman 1974 show about biases in decision making
This study shows that anchoring bias can make decision-making unreliable, as individuals are influenced by irrelevant information from the spinner. Their judgments were not purely based on knowledge or reasoning, but tended to be anchored around the random number shown on the spinner. Indicating bias due to the anchor given.
what does framing effect show about reliability of decision making in general
It demonstrates that decisions are not based solely on logical evaluation. Instead, they can be swayed by emotional responses triggered by the way a problem is framed. This suggests that cognitive processes involved in decision-making are vulnerable to distortion, leading to potentially inconsistent or biased choices.
aim of Tversky and Kahneman 1981
Tto investigate how the framing of information affects decision-making.
Results of Tversky and Kahneman 1981
In the positive framing condition, 72% of the participants chose Program In the negative framing condition 78% chose Program D.
what year was Tversky and Kahneman for framing effect
1981
Procedure of Tversky and Kahneman 1981
They created a fake scenario detailing an Asian Disease expected to kill 600 people. They were then given two program options to aid the disease. Participants were split into two groups. Group 1: were told that a) 200 people will be saved and b) there is a ⅓ probability that 600 people will be saved and ⅔ probability that no people will be saved
Group 2 was told: - c) 400 people would die and d) There is a ⅓ probability that nobody will die, and a ⅔ probability that 600 people will die.
What does Tversky and Kahneman 1981 show about the framing effect in relation to congnitive bias.
The results showed that when information is phrased positively people were motr likely to choose a certain outcome, whereas when information is phrased negatively they are most likely to choose the less certain option.
Even though the outcomes were mathematically identical, the framing drastically influenced their decisions.
The framing effect can lead to deviations from rationality, decreasing the reliability of decision-making. As instead of thinking rationally and anylizing relising they were the same they took a cognitive short cut and tended to go for the safer option in both scenarios.
