Bias Flashcards
Norms
Rules of action / thought which define optimality
Rationality is a set of norms
Be consistent- coherent
Correspond to reality
Availability bias
Over estimating
Over estimate frequency- vivid but unlikely events
Framing bias
Switching your decision based on the question framing
Expected utility theory
Calculating the option with the highest expected utility is a decision making method (choose the most efficient outcome)
Value is not a utility
Utility is compressed with respect to value
Value in relation to cost
Utility- how much you enjoy/ prefer it
Calculating expected utility
E = p x U
Expected utility = probability x uncertainty
Eg E of bet with 50% chance of £40 is £20= 0.5 x 20
Expected utility and see whether this is greater than the cost of the gamble initially
Effect of uncertainty
Top- things will most likely be okay but could be very good or bad
Middle- things will probably be good, small chance they might go bad
Bottom- things could be good or bad
Why we use heuristics
Rationality is bounded
The world is complex
Decisions need to be made quickly
Our time is limited
Cog capacities are limited
Use heuristics
Why we use heuristics
Ecological rationality
Correspondence with the environment is more important than coherence (logic processing)
To fit well with environment much better to food correspondence than coherence
Adaptive value
Evolutionary
Decisions in line with environment- benefits outweigh costs
Evolution maximises long term expected value
Recognition heuristics
Some knowledge and likelihood of hearing an option correlated with its importance/ value / size
Do not work- know too much/ too little/ incidence is not related to value
Wason’s selection task
E X 1 6
All cards with a vowel on one side have an even number on other side
Confirmation bias- most people pick E and 6, when E and 1 test rule
Wason 2-4-6 task
Given 3 numbers, have to come up with another set of numbers which fit the same rule
Most people think of rule (confirmation bias)- ascending numbers and generate example with fits
Positive test
Positive test- seek to verify hypothesis but can be found false
Negative test- seek to falsify hypothesis but can be found true
Which is best depends on what you believe and how relates to truth
Positive test always confirms belief
System 1
Heuristic
Quick
Automatic
Effortless
Unconscious
