Belt & Road Initiative and Global Security Initiative Flashcards
What are the 10 most important concepts from “The Belt & Road Initiative and China’s Influence in Southeast Asia” by Xue Gong ?
- Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): The BRI, formerly known as One Belt, One Road (OBOR), is China’s grand plan to revive ancient trade routes, both land and sea. It was introduced in late 2013 and has garnered significant global attention.
- Debate on BRI’s Impact: There are differing opinions on the potential impact of the BRI. Some believe it will greatly expand China’s global influence, while others foresee challenges and potential failure due to various obstacles.
- Author’s Position: The author takes a middle-ground position, suggesting that the actual impact of the BRI should neither be easily dismissed nor overestimated. They argue that China’s influence in Southeast Asia will increase, but it won’t lead to a complete dominance of the region.
- Factors Affecting BRI’s Success in Southeast Asia: The author identifies three major factors that will influence the success of the BRI in Southeast Asia: (a) responses of ASEAN and its member states toward the BRI, (b) competition from alternative infrastructure initiatives proposed by other major powers in Southeast Asia, and (c) China’s ability to deliver on its BRI promises.
- China’s Foreign Policy Shift: China’s foreign policy underwent significant changes after President Xi Jinping took office in 2012. The nation adopted a more assertive stance on territorial and maritime disputes and emphasized its role in global governance.
- China’s Regional Goals: China aims to maintain stable and friendly relations with Southeast Asian countries, be seen as a reliable economic partner, and exert political influence in the region. Additionally, China seeks to prevent regional states from aligning against it with external powers.
- China’s Economic Engagement: China has actively engaged with Southeast Asia through economic initiatives and cooperation projects. This includes trade agreements, investment, and the promotion of economic corridors.
- Concerns about BRI’s Impact on ASEAN Centrality: There are concerns that the BRI’s bilateral approach may weaken the current mode of ASEAN-led regionalism, potentially leading to a more China-centric regional economic integration.
- Challenges in Measuring BRI’s Impact: There are difficulties in accurately measuring the impact of the BRI due to its vague definition, overlapping with existing projects, and the rebranding of prior initiatives as part of the BRI.
- ASEAN’s Response to BRI: ASEAN and its member states have shown increasing interest and support for China’s BRI. However, responses vary among different Southeast Asian countries, and there are challenges in accurately assessing their level of support.
How does China describe the Belt and Road initiative ?
- It corresponds to the silk road development strategies.
- Focuses on connections and cooperation amongst countries, primarily between China and the rest of Eurasia.
- Economic program that builds transnational infrastructure through loans and grants.
- Meant to stimulate trade and transport, placing China at the middle of it.
What are the most relevant facts regarding the B&R Initiative ?
- 140 countries have signed on, to various degrees of participation.
- Laos and Pakistan are very involved. (many large projects in the regions are financed by China)
Why is Pakistan so involved: works as a counter weight to India, and Pakistan is also skeptical of the United States.
Why do some scholars believe the B&R is a Grand Strategy ?
China is aligning capabilities to reach long term global goals.
It may alter the transnational world order ; the US on the out and China at the center of trade and investment, making it at the center of influence.
China could then set rules on its own terms.
Why do some scholars believe the B&R is a Fragmented Program ?
China is simply rebranding activities that were already taking place. It is a global remix.
It is also too ambitious to be a Grand Strategy because creating political influence through this type of initiative is incredibly difficult because if it is too big, the loans will not be repaid which will negatively impact China’s image.
Such a project cannot be both financially and politically useful.
What is the first element of the rational behind the B&R initiative ?
Economic connectivity and centrality ; growth in non-linked regions. This will make goods move quicker and more efficiently.
What is the second element of the rational behind the B&R initiative ?
Economic growth. Allows opportunity for various enterprises and construction companies.
What is the third element of the rational behind the B&R initiative ?
Political legitimacy and foreign power. This allows China to be more powerful without being perceived as a threat, which is the constant dilemma China faces.
What is the fourth element of the rational behind the B&R initiative ?
The creation of exit options for partner states ; allows them an alternative option if they do not want to be bound by Western institutions like the World Bank for example.
What is the fifth element of the rational behind the B&R initiative ?
Domestic factors (such as overcapacity, subnational influence, etc.)
What are the current effects of the B&R initiative ?
According to the World Bank ;
It is currently 30% below potential trade, and 70 % below potential exchanges.
If it is implemented to its full potential, global trade would increase by 5 or 6 %
What are the risks of the Belt and Road Initiative ?
- Debt Sustainability
- Governance and lending transparency is lacking.
- Concerns of environmental practices, but still branded as green (is not funding coal abroad for example)
What is the political impact of the B&R initiative ?
- More international involvement in Xinjiang and Hong Kong.
- When projects are through - better image of China.
- If they are not completed, worst image of China because of corruption.
What are some factors that are negatively affecting the success of the B&R initiative ?
- COVID-19
- It is dual circulation strategy, reliant on home markets, not just exports (domestic focus while remaining open to the outside world)
- G7 rival projects especially to counter China.
What are some factors that are improving the success of the B&R initiative ?
- The emergence from COVID-19
- The growth of China
- Benefits from the positive image it has in a lot of states.
