Base rate question Flashcards
Structure for this question?
- Define concepts
2. Solve
What 7 concepts will I define?
- Incremental validity
- Base rate
- Positive hit rate
- True positive
- True negative
- False positive
- False negative
What is incremental validity and who said so in what year and on what page?
“the extent to which a measure adds to the prediction of a criterion beyond what can be predicted with other data” (Hunsely, 2003, p. 443)
What is the formula for incremental validity?
positive hit rate - base rate = incremental validity
What is the base rate?
The probability of some event happening. In terms of testing, it can be defined as the probability that an individual within a population will have a certain characteristic
What is the formula for calculating the base rate?
(true positive + false negatives)/total number of people
What is the positive hit rate?
The proportion of scores that correctly classified the individuals in the population as having a certain characteristic
Give an example of positive hit rate from personnel selection.
the proportion of people hired who actually succeed on the job
What is the formula for calculating positive hit rate?
true positives/total positives
What is a true positive
An outcome where the model correctly predicts the positive class
What is a true negative
An outcome where the model correctly predicts the negative class
What is a false positive
An outcome where the model incorrectly predicts the positive class
What is a false negative
An outcome where the model incorrectly predicts the negative class
In terms of this question, what is the positive hit rate?
75/100 = .75
In terms of this question, what is the incremental validity?
.75-.30 = .45 = 45%
