Bahnemann Flashcards
Claim Size Distributions
Pareto (Linear XS severity as limit increases)
Exponential (Constant XS severity at all limits)
Lognormal (XS Sev increases without bound)
Gamma (XS Sev decreases to asymptote)
Claim Count Distributions
Poisson
Negative Binomial
ILF Risk Load
Reflects added volatility on top of higher expected value
Straight Deductible
All losses above d are reduced by d
Franchise Deductible
All losses above d are paid in full
Diminishing Deductible
Losses between d and D have linearly decreasing deductible
All losses above D are paid in full
XS Policy - Applying Lower and Upper Limit
Lower first, then upper limit
(a,a+l]
width l
Ded Policy - Applying Lower and Upper Limit
Upper limit first, then lower
(a,l]
width l-a
Impact on CV as impose additional limits
Decreases
CV of XS claims vs Ground-Up
XS has larger CV than ground-up
Different Tau’s (Trend)
Tau_X - ground-up claim size inflation
~Tau_X - XS claim size inflation
~Tau_N - Claim count inflation due solely to claim size inflation
Tau_Freq - Frequency Trend
~Tau_S - Agg XS loss inflation due to claim size inflation
~Tau_S,Total = Tau_Freq * ~Tau_N * ~Tau_X
Tau Key Relationships
- If ground-up claim size inflation positive then Agg XS inflation larger
- If negative, Agg Xs inflation more negative
This is because of claim count inflation due to claim size inflation
Contagion Parameter
Reflects the fact that occurence of a claim often leads to additional claims
What does premium cover
Expected Loss
General Expenses (Incl. ULAE)
UW Profit
Risk Charge
Risk Charge
Covers contingencies
Process Risk and Parameter Risk
Increased uncertainty at higher limits