BA 2 - Sampling and Estimation Flashcards
What type of sample ensures sound inferences?
- Sufficiently large; and
- Representative of the population
How to avoid biased results
- Phrasing questions neutrally
- Ensuring that the sampling method is appropriate for the demographic of the target population; and
- Pursuing high response rates.
Characteristics of the normal distribution
- Symmetrical bell shape;
- Center => mean, width => standard deviation;
- ~68% of the probability contained within 1 sd of mean, ~95% within 2 sds, ~99.7% within 3 sds.
z-value
Normalized value.
z = (x - mu)/sd
Central Limit Theorem
if we take enough sufficiently large samples from any population, the means of those samples will be normally distributed, regardless of the shape of the underlying population.
Distribution of Sample Means
- Approximates normal curve as we increase the number of samples;
- Mean of any sample lies within this curve - we can use the properties of the normal curve to draw conclusions about the sample;
- mean of this distribution = mean of the population distribution;
- sd of this distribution = (sd of population)/rt. n;
- => increasing sample size decreases the width of the distribution of sample means.
Confidence Interval
Range around the sample mean to estimate the range in which the true population mean likely lies.
- Width depends on level of confidence, estimate of population sd, sample size.
Size of sample
Large samples => greater than or equal to thirty.
Small sample => t-distribution - shorter, wider than normal distribution.
Large => normal distribution
Confidence intervals for proportions
Need to create a dummy (0, 1) variable.
And then proceed as we would with any other variable.
Ensuring sample size is large enough for estimating population proportion
n.p >= 5, and
n(1-pbar) >=5
[EXCEL] Generating random number between 0 and 999
=RAND()
[EXCEL] Cumulative probability for normal distribution
=NORM.DIST(x, mean, sd, cumulative)
cumulative = TRUE
[EXCEL] Cumulative probability for standardized normal distribution
=NORM.S.DIST(z, cumulative)
cumulative = TRUE
[EXCEL] Corresponding x-value for probability on a specified normal distribution
=NORM.INV(probability, mean, sd)
[EXCEL] Margin of error for normal distribution
=CONFIDENCE.NORM(alpha, sd, sample_size)
For sample size greater than or equal to 30