Asset Allocation Flashcards
SAA vs TAA
SAA: Combines CMA (return, std, correlation) with an investor’s risk, return, and investment constraints (IPS)
TAA: active management where managers deviate from the SAA to take advantage of short term opportunities
ALM Definition
Asset Only Definition
ALM: Tailoring asset alloication to meet liabilities and maximize surplus (high fixed income)
Asset Only: only focus is highest return for risk taken
Dynamic vs Static Asset Allocation
Dynamic: multi-period view (one period affects others)
Very difficult and costly to implement
↓ transaction costs
ALM uses Dynamic
Static: Use inputs at a point in time and build a long-term allocation
Required Return Geometric Calculation
(1 + r)(1 + r)(1 + r) - 1
Example:
Foundation needs 4% for distributions, inflation is 3%, fees are 0.5%.
(1.04)(1.03)(1.005) - 1 = 7.66%
Utility-Adjusted Return
UP = Rp - .005(A)(stdp)2
A = risk tolerance score 1-8. (8 being most risk adverse)
Example: risk score of 5, choose best portfolio
Portfolio A r = 11.5%, std 18% 11.5 - 0.005(5)(18)2 = 3.4
Portfolio B r = 8.-%, std 14% 8 - 0.005(5)(14)2 = 3.1
Portfolio C r = 6.0%, std 10% 6 - 0.005(5)(10)2 = 3.5
Select C
Roy’s Safety First Measure
RSF = (Rp - RMAR) / stdp
RMAR = minimum acceptable return
Example: Wants to minimize chances to earn less than 3.5%
Portfolio A r = 11.5%, std 18% (11.5 - 3.5) / 18 = 0.44
Portfolio B r = 8.-%, std 14% (8 - 3.5) / 14 = 0.32
Portfolio C r = 6.0%, std 10% (6 - 3.5) / 10 = 0.25
Select A
Shortfall Risk
Semivariance
Shortfall risk = risk of exceeding a maximum acceptable dollar loss
Semivariance = bottom half of the variance (only using returns below expected return)
Asset Class Approprately Specified
- Assets in the class are similar (statistical and descriptive)
- Asset classes are not highly correlated
- Individual assets only in ONE class
- Mostly liquid assets
- Cover majority of all possible assets
When should an additional asset class be added to an existing portfolio?
If Si > Sp * cori,p
Remember: Sharpe = (r - Rf) / std
Example 1:
Sharpe ratio: P = 0.41, Inv1 = 0.30, Inv2 = 0.31, Inv3 = 0.19
Cor with P: Inv1 = 0.77, Inv2 = 0.80, Inv3 = 0.40
Inv1: S = 0.30, 0.41 * 0.77 = .316 - DONT add
Inv2 S = 0.31, 0.41 * 0.80 = 0.328 - DONT add
Inv3 S = 0.19, 0.41 * 0.40 = 0.164 - ADD
Example 2:
Rf = 3%, Portfolio R = 12%, Std = 18%
New Investment R = 12%, Std = 30%
- Sharpe ratio A (12-3)/18 = 0.5, Sharpe B (12-3) / 30 = 0.3
- Si = Sp * cori,p 0.30 = 0.50 * cori,p
- Solve for cori,p = 0.30/0.50 = 0.60
If correlation is 0.60 sharpe is unchanged
If correlation is less than 0.60 adding will increase Sharpe
If correlation is more than 0.60 adding will decrease Sharpe
Nondomestic Equity and Bonds Risk
- Currency risk (reduced by low correlation)
- Political risk
- irresponsible fiscal/monetary policy
- lacks legal and regulatory rules
- Home country bias
- Higher costs or less liquid
Contagion/Conditional Correlation
Lower correlations for normal conditions
HIgher correlations during market crises
MVO Strengths/Weaknesses
Strengths
Identifies portfolio with highest expected return for risk
Widely available and understood
Drawbacks
Must specify all returns (input bias)
Tends to select concentrated allocations
CML
CML: Line between Rf and the market portfolio
If an investor can borrow and lend at Rf all portfolios on the CML dominate the normal EF
Drawbacks:
- Hard to find a Rf asset over multiple periods
- Borrowing increases risk
Resampled EF
Running MC on all portfolios to get a range. Then take the average
Advantages:
- More stable EF (but it does fall below original frontier)
- Considered more diversified
- Can see a range of what assets can be held. (Less turnover)
Diadvantages:
- Lack of sound theoretical basis
- Based on historical data
Black-Litterman
Addresses instability issues
Two Models:
- UBL Model - unconstrained (can short-sell).
- BL Model - no short selling
- Take consensus return expectations (global market index)
- Manager adjusts asset class weights based on his opinion
- Runs the MVO again
If an asset class increases return, it will have more weight.
Black-Litterman Pros and Cons
Pros
Starting with a global portfolio generally produces a well diversified portfolio
Reduces input bias
Cons
Complex and utilizes historical std
Asset Liablity Management for MVO
- ALM searches for allocations that maximize the surplus between assets and liabilities
- MSVP = Minimum Surplus Variance Portfolio (could be negative)
- Choosing above the MSVP is a beta decision
- Can combine ALM with BL or resampling
Experience-Based Techniques (EBTs)
- Process of elimination, “rules of thumb”
- Starts with a 60/40 and then adjust based on risk tolerance and time horizon