Alternative Investments Flashcards
Backwardation
Downward sloping curve.
Todays spot price > future price.
Bearish indicator.
Expected future spot price is lower than current spot price.
Positive calander spread, convience yield doesn’t limit slope of the curve.
Positive Roll Yield and Positive Calander Spread
Contango
Bullish indicator
Current spot prices < Future spot price.
Expected future price is higher
There is a limit to the slope of the curve due to arbitrage limit.
Negative Calander spread and negative roll yield.
Trading Strategy for Backwardation
Strategy 1: Buy short dated contract, Sell long dated contract.
Strategy 2: Buy long dated contracts.
Trading Strategy for Contango
Strategy 1: Buy Long dated contract, Sell Short dated contract.
Strategy 2: Buy short dated contracts.
Insurance Theory (Keynes)
Theory of normal backwardation
Producers will use commodity futures for insurance by locking in prices. Thereby having more predictible revenue.
This selling forward pushed down prices in the future.
Prices would have to be lower in the future to induce a buyer to take a price risk.
Hedging pressure hypothesis
Producers want to sell to hedge
End users want to buy to hedge
If hedging demand from producers and users are equal, then the future curve should be flat.
Hedging pressure hypothesis
Producers demand > Consumers Demand
Backwardation.
Future prices has to be lower to induce speculators to fill gap.
This is part of Insurance theory.
Hedging pressure hypothesis
Producers demand < Consumers Demand
Contango
Future prices will be higher
Positive Calender Spread
Backwardation
Future < Spot
Negative Calender Spread
Contango
Spot < Future
Total Return Swap
One party receives payment based on the change in the level of an index
Total Return Swap = Notional Principal (△ Commodity Price - Fixed Payment)
Basis Swap
Periodic payments are exchanged based on the values of 2 related commodity reference prices that are not perfectly correlated.
Often used between highly liqiuid futurers contract and an illiquid but related material.
Variance Swap
For a specific commodity
Volatiltiy Swap
Relative to the volatility of a reference commodity
What is Calender Yield
Future prices converge to spot prices over the term of futures contract. The difference between the futures price of a nearer maturity and the futures price of a more distant maturity is known as Calendar Spread
Positive roll yiled
Backwardation.
Formula for total return of future commodity contracts
Total Return = Spot Price Return + Roll Return + Collateral Return
Total Return = Spot Return + (Excess Return - Spot Return) + (Total Return - Excess Return)
Spot Price Returns: Usually Fluctuates
Roll Return and Collateral Return: Usually remains constant.
Variance Swap
Actual Variance > Fixed Variance
Long receives payment
Variance Swap
Actual Variance < Fixed Variance
Long makes payment
Commodity Volatility Swap
Volatility of Commodity’s Price > Expected Level of Volatility
Long receives payment
Commodity Volatility Swap
Volatility of Commodity’s Price < Expected Level of Volatility
Long makes payment
Excess Return Swap
Excess Return Swap = Notional Principal (Fixed Payment - Variable Payment).
the variable payments are based on the difference between a commodity price and a
benchmark value.
In months in which the commodity price doesn’t exceed the fixed value, no payments are
made.
Roll Return Formula
[(Near Term Future Price) - (Farther Term Future Price)]/ (Near Term Future Price) x % of position being rolled