A.2.3: Attempts at flood prediction and forecasting

Question 1

Flood prediction and forecasting

Answer 1

During the 1980s and 1990s flood forecasting and warning became more accurate, now one of the most widely used measures to reduce problems caused by flooding

Question 2

Advances in weather satellites for flood prediction and forecasting

Answer 2

Despite advances in weather satellites and the use of radar for forecasting, over 50% of all unprotected homes in England and Wales have less than 6 hours of flood warning time

Question 3

Flood prediction and forecasting in low-income countries (LIC)

Answer 3

In most low-income countries (LICs) there is much less effective flood forecasting.

An exception is Bangladesh, where most floods originate in the Himalayas, so authorities have a 72 hour warning.

Question 4

Monsoon rain flood prediction and foorecasting

Answer 4

Flooding from monsoon rains may be predicted through the use of satellite imagery

Question 5

Modern technology for flood warnings

Answer 5

Making warnings available is now easier as more people have access to television, smartphones and computers than in the past.

However, poorest members of society have least access to new technology, and so may be least informed in terms of impending floods.

Question 6

Improvements for flood warnings (according to United Nations Environment Programme’s publication)

Answer 6

• Improved rainfall and snow-pack estimates, better and longer forecasts of rainfall
• Better gauging of rivers, collection of meteorological information and mapping of channels
• Better and more-current information about human populations; infrastructure, elevation and stream channels need to be incorporated into flood risk assessment models
• Better sharing of information needed between forecasters, national agencies, relief organisations and the general public
• More complete and timely sharing of meteorological and hydrological information needed among countries within International drainage basins
• Technology should be shared among all agencies involved in flood forecasting and risk assessment both in the basins and around the world

Question 7

Effects of climate change on forecasting

Answer 7

Increase in uncertainty in forecasting due to global climate change

Some areas are predicted to have higher and more frequent floods

In other areas, rainfall patterns may became more erratic