9- Judgement Flashcards
define judgement
the process through which people draw conclusions from the evidence they encounter
judgments require _
a frequency estimate
instead of good information, what do we rely on to make a judgement? What term describes this?
- rely on easily accessed information
- attribute substitution (make adecision about frequencies without using frequency as supporting evidence)
attribute substitutions often rely on info obtained through _?
heuristics
define heuristics
efficient strategies that usually lead to the correct answer
name the 4 types of heuristics
- availability heuristic
- representativeness heuristic
- affect heuristic
- effort heuristic
describe the availability heuristic
- the ease with which examples come to mind is a proxy for frequency or likelihood
- the ease of remembering X events when recalling X number of events affects judgement
*heuristics can result in errors (ex. frequency of car or plane crashes)
if individuals were asked to either name 5 or 10 times they were assertive, which group would rate themselves as lower in assertiveness?
group that needs to name 10
describe the representative heuristic
- assumption that resemblance to the prototype reflects probability (often relies on the assumption of homogeneity)
ex. man on train professor/farmer
what happens when we learn someone’s category? (representativeness heuristic)
assume a lot about them
ex. assuming a farmer in a suit is going to a formal event
what are “man who” arguments (representativeness heuristic)?
- always hearing about anecdotes
“someone who knows someone who did something” - dominate representation of specific categories when they are exceptions
What is the gambler’s fallacy (representativeness heuristic)?
- expect the thing that hasn’t come up often to show up next
*despite equal 50/50 odds and independent events
define covariation
X and Y covary if the presence/magnitude of X can be predicted by the presence/magnitude of Y (vice versa)
ex. age and university level
what happens when covariations are incorrectly assumed?
causal claims are improperly made
“astrology + personality”
define confirmation bias
tendency to be more alert to evidence that confirms one’s beliefe than to evidence that challenges then
*often used when turning covariations into causal claims
define base rate information
information about how frequently something generally occurs
- statistic
define diagnostic information
does an individual case belong to a category?
when do we use base rates vs diagnostic info?
- if we have base rates alone, we will use them
- if diagnostic info is given, ppl tend to neglect the base rate
define conjunction fallacy (base rates)
the false assumption that a combination of conditions is more likely than either condition by itself
*probability of single thing always more probable than multiple
why do we use heuristics if they often mislead us?
usually they work
define type 1 thinking
fast and automatic thinking
- reliance on heuristics
define type 2 thinking
slower, effortful thinking
- more likely to be correct
how might types of thinking impact performance on the cognitive reflection test?
- will come up with different answers
name the 2 components of reasoning
induction and deduction
define induction
process through which you forecast about new cases based on observed cases
define deduction
process through which you start with “givens” and ask what follows from these premises
describe confirmation bias as it pertains to deductive reasoning
a greater sensitivity to confirming evidence and a tendency to neglect disconfirming evidence
*seeking to confirm only rules they were proposing in the number task (given 2 numbers and make up rule)
describe disconfirming evidence
unlike confirming evidence, information inconsistent with one’s beliefs is often scrutinized for flaws
ex. gamblers believe their strategy was good but the loss was a “fluke” or “coincidence”
define belief perseverance
tendency to maintain a elief even when given undeniable disconfirming evidence
how does confirmation bias relate to logic?
confirmation bias suggests a failure to be logical
- can demonstrate using categorical syllogisms and conditional statements
define categorical syllogisms
logical arguments containing 2 premises and a conclusion
define conditional statement
IF x then Y
- given a condition and decide if a result happens
define belief bias
people’s assessment of a syllogism’s conclusion is affected by how consistent the conclusion is with their beliefs
*if conclusion is true alone, might think the syllogism is valid
what task was given in class for illogical decisions in conditional statements?
Wason’s 4 card task
“if card has vowel on 1 side, must have an even number on the other side”
define utility maximization (decision making)
should be choosing the option with the greatest expected value (balance of costs and benefits)
*decisions often don’t maximize utility
define utility
the value that you place on a particular outcome
define risk
the probability of a negative outcome
describe prospect theory (decision making)
- when evaluating gains, people are risk aversive
- when faced with sure loss, people become risk-seeking
depending on how a problem is _, decisions will widely differ
framed
name the 5 concepts under “status quo
status quo bias
transaction costs
optimal defaults
endowment effect
sunk cost effect
define status quo bias
a preference for the current state of affairs
- ppl don’t want to make a decision that changes thier life
- trying to minimize cost by avoiding and not changing things
define transaction costs
time, effort, and resources needed for change
define optimal defaults
automatically place people into options that have the greatest benefit
- ex. 401k
define the endowment effect
tendency to overvalue what one has in hand
- ex. free thing feels more expensive when we have owned it
define sunk cost effect
tendency to continue a task once invesdting time, energy and resources
define emotional decisions
- lots of decisions are powerfully influenced by emotions
- people use somatic markers as an indicator of risk
- can predict our future emotions (affective forecasting) to help with decisions
describe affective forecasting
-predicting future emotions to help with decisions
- exaggerate how happy or sad we will feel
*valence is usually right but magnitude and duration is wrong
