8. the electoral process and direct democracy Flashcards
What is the US electoral system and time of the US election?
- Majoritarian
- elections for president is indirect and done through Electoral College (EC)
What are the main characteristic of US presidential and congressional campagins?
Frequency:
- “constant campagining” due to sheer number of elections
- national elections: every 2yrs (congress, state gov, etc
Focus:
- dominated by personalities
-focus on local issues and what promises are made
Format:
- 3 TV debates between presidential canidates (less influential now due to increase in partisanship)
- attack ads, PACs and Super PACs, focus on family and religion
What are primaries?
- secret ballot to select each party’s canidate
- open (anyone can vote e.g. Alabama), closed (only registered members can vote e.g. New York)
- e.g. New Hampshire, South Carolina
Advantages: - allows ordinary voters to choose canidate
- tests candidates’ qualities for the office
Disadvantages: - adds cost and length to campaigns
- increase focus on candidates not polices
What are cacucses?
- informal series of party meetings which ultimately select delegates for the national nominating convention
- e.g. Iowa
Advantages: - enables more through discussion and debate among party activists of candidates
Disadvantages: - length and timing often discourage many voters from participating
What are national nominating conventions?
- held by each party after primary and caucuses in the summer before the presidential election in November
- formally nominate the party’s canidate
- important in terms of media coverage and presenting a united front after divisive primary campagin (e.g. Sanders and Clinton)
What are the arguments against the Electoral College?
- winner of the popular vote can fail to be elected president e.g. 2016 and 2000
- smaller states are over represented e.g. California has 1 EC vote per 712,000 people while Wyoming have 1 EC vote per 195,000 people
- encourages candidates to focus on swing states like Florida and forget safe states like New York
What are the arguments for the Electoral college?
- Normally delivers the right result e.g. Only been 5 elects that have not been pop vote
- reflects the federal nature of the US and ensures candidates campaign in a range of states not simply the most populated
- faithless elector have never been affected by the final election outcome
What factors affect the outcome of US elections? - money
- Incumbents traditionally outspend challengers
2016 Senate elections incumbents raised $8.7M while challengers raised $600,000 - Money is not a guarantee of success Hillary Clinton raised and spent more than Trump in 2016
$581M v $330M
What factors affect the outcome of US elections? - media
- traditionally TV debates were v. important but now not as much due to an increase in partisan realignment
- raises profile of the canidates e.g. Obama was hardly known in 2008
- 2016 Trump and Clinton spent $81M on Facebook ads
What factors affect the outcome of US elections? - Issues
- different issues dominate e.g. 2004 main issue was security and foreign policy after 9/11
What factors affect the outcome of US elections? - leadership
- leadership is closely tied in to canidate personalities and track record
What factors affect the outcome of US elections? - significance of incumbency
- 2016 93% senators and 98% house members re-elected
- since 1945 4 presidents have failed to be re-elected, Trump, Bush Senior, Ford and Cater
- incumbents have greater name recognition, and established staff
Why is the cost of US election so high?
- number and frequency of elections e.g. presidential, congressional, state gov elections, primaries, caucus
- 2002 Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act has been ineffective
- no limit on number on political ads that can be on TV
What is hard money?
- money raised and donated to official campagins
- TV ads produced by the candidates themselves are accompanied by an endorsement voice over with the candidates approval
What is soft money?
- money raised and spent independently of the candidates’ official campaign, but which supports their candidate and attacks opposition
Should campaign finance be reformed? - yes
- election expenditure has gotten out of control
- the emphasis on fantasising distracts elected representatives from focusing on doing their real job
- cost of elections means that only the personally wealthy or well connected e.g. Trump can afford to enter politics - heightens elites nature of politics
- reforms are desperately needed to plug loopholes like the emergence of superPACs such as 527 & 501 groups
Should campagin finance be reformed? - no
- allowing for inflation, 2016 saw slightly less spent than 2008 & 2012
- fundraising and political donations are a crucial part of the democratic process (all supporters to show loyalty)
- USSC has upheld Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act 2003
When is direct Democracy used in the US?
Referendums:
- some states require referendums when the state changes taxes
- 2016 Alabama referendum to change procedures on impeachment of officials
Initiatives propositions:
- 2016 71 initiatives were voted on
-2016 9 states held initiatives on legalising marijuana
Recall elections:
- takes 790,000 signatures to recall the governor of Michigan
Does direct democracy help democracy?
- Helps voters to have a direct say in framing laws “purer form)
- Promotes variation in laws between different types of state e.g. liberal/conservative
- adds another check and balance to state executives and legislatures between elections
- increases opportunities for political participation
- pressure groups often get involved e.g. NRA publicly backed measure 2014 to strengthen 2nd amendment
Does direct democracy hinder democracy?
- Can lead to the tyranny of the majority, namely voters passing laws that negatively impact on a minority e.g. driving tests can only be in English
- Ordinary voters may not always understand complex laws fully but also may vote on unsustainable laws e.g. decrease tax but increase public service spending
- adds more opportunity for stalemate and stalling over important issues
What are the Primacy factors that affect voting behaviour? - race
- African Americans overwhelmingly vote Democrat e.g. 2016 88% voted Dem while 65% Asian Americans voted Dem
- White voters support Republicans but with small margins e.g. 2016 59% white voters voted Trump
What are the Primacy factors that affect voting behaviour? - gender
- women are more likely to vote Democrat while men tend to vote Republican
- e.g. 2016 54% women - Hillary Clinton
53% men - Trump
What are the Primacy factors that affect voting behaviour? - religion
- white evangelical Christians strongly back Republicans 2016 81% voted Trump
- Non religous voters strongly vote Democrat 2916 68% voted Clinton
What are the Primacy factors that affect voting behaviour? - wealth
- there is less of a difference than might be expected
- 2016
both rep and Dem received 47% vote from those earning more than $100,000
53% earning under $50,000 voted Dem
What are the Primacy factors that affect voting behaviour? - self declared philosophy
- 2016
- 84% liberal voted Clinton
- 81% conservative voted Trump
What are the Primacy factors that affect voting behaviour? - sexual orientation
- 2016
- 78% who identified in the LGBT group voted Clinton while 14% voted Trump
What are the Primacy factors that affect voting behaviour? - geography
- suburban and rural areas favour Republicans while urban areas prefer Democrats
- 2016
90% of urban areas were won by Clinton
75-90% suburbs backed Trump
What are the Recency factors that affect voting behaviour? - issues and policies
- Trump emphasise on restricting immigration and a travel ban on many Muslims and tariffs on foreign imports
- Clinton opposed all of these
What are the Recency factors that affect voting behaviour? - personalities
- Clinton emphasises experience (first lady, senator and secretary of state)
- Trump emphasised business record
What are the Recency factors that affect voting behaviour? - October surprises
- Trump and his Hollywood access tape
- Clinton and her private email server
How was the 1968 election a re-aligning election?
- Nixon v Humphrey
- Dems made progressive stance on civil rights and peace movements
- Reps and southern strategy
- election ushered in an era of Rep dominance in elections - winning 7/10 elections until 2004
How was the 2016 election a re-aligning election?
- Trump v Clinton
- loyal Blue states such as Ohio swung behind Trump 62% of the vote
What is split ticket voting?
- ability oto vote for canidates from different parties for different elected posts in the same election
- but growth of hyper-partisanship has made this much less common
- 2016 only 35 states split congressional districts
What evidence is there for abstention in voting?
- 55.7% population that is voting age turned out
- turnout for primaries typically less than 30% - 5.5.% in Kansas caucuses
- 2012 66% African Americans turned out compared to 64% white
- 2016 63% women turned out to vote compared to 59% men
What are the reasons for low voter turn out in US elections?
- multiple elections - democratic overload
- lack of voter choice (two parties)
- political alienation - political efficacy
- voter registration requirements
- New Voter ID laws e.g. in Texas they require a gov issued passport to vote
- Gerrymandering in states increases the uncompetitive mature of many house district
