7 - Population

Question 1

Basic: what does population growth depend on?

Answer 1

Crude birth rate and crude death rate. So these in turn depend on the fertility among women in fertile age and the share of population that is in this age. The age structure also matters for the mortality rate at different ages.

Question 2

Indicator of mortality dependent on age-specific mortality rates: (3)

Answer 2

• The infant mortality rate (within 1 year)
• The child mortality rate (up til 5 year)
• Life expectancy at birth

Question 3

TFR

Answer 3

=Total fertility rate. Calculated from age-specific fertility rates The number of children who would be born per woman if she were to pass through the childbearing years having children according to a current schedule of age-specific fertility rates.

Question 4

Replacement fertility rate

Answer 4

Implies zero population growth, for the world we have 2.1. Rich countries often less than 2.1.

Question 5

If the ideal/norm of when to have children changes, effect on TFR?

Answer 5

Yes it would affect TFR, for example in poor countries where they have children at early ages, a delay would decrease the TFR and it would also cause a “dip” in the curve until it reach up again.

Question 6

Demographic momentum

Answer 6

Even if all countries had TFR=2.1, the population growth would continue for some time, as long as the cohorts of girls entering reproductive ages increase.

Question 7

Malthus model of population:

Answer 7

You will have more children as long as you can afford it (normal good) and population was only limited by hunger (limited land resources). Living standard appeared to be constant and tech was only related to more people.

Question 8

Empiri against Malthus:

Answer 8

• Increased TFP have led to increased living standards.
• Lack of food is not a problem on a global level.
• Pandemics - a population decrease lead to increase income per worker.
  BUT, what still remains is the believe that the earth only can manage a limited number of people which we are approaching.

Question 9

Population in the Solow model:

Answer 9

Population growth leads to less K/L, but if saving and investing in k enough, - wages don’t need to fall.

Question 10

Mortality vs morbidity affect on income:

Answer 10

Decreased morbidity means healthier population and this increases human capital which increases income.
On the contrary, decreased mortality means that old, weak and children survive - but don’t contribute to production, so income per capita will decrease in the SR.

Question 11

Dependecy ratio

Answer 11

The share of working age people in the population (15-64 years).

• Youth dependency 0-14
• Elderly dependency 64+

Question 12

Demographic dividend

Answer 12

A period in developing countries where their working age cohorts are largest - after FTR has declined, one time opportunity to utilize the high labor force participation and savings.

Question 13

Dependency ration in rich countries

Answer 13

High because fo the aging population

Question 14

Demographic transition

Answer 14

Changing patterns of fertility and mortality as countries have developed. Completed in rich countries but ongoing in developing. Mortality decrease comes first and then fast pop growth before fertility adjust to the new circumstances.

Question 15

What made mortality decline? (3)

Answer 15

1. Standards of living (quantity(quality of food)
2. Public health (clean water, sanitation)
3. Tech progress in medicine (prevention and treatment)

Question 16

2 main determinants of fertility:

Answer 16

Tech progress in birth control, family planning and contraceptives, BUT mainly the desired fertility has declined.

Question 17

More income –> less children, are children inferior goods?

Answer 17

No, we think of them as normal goods but that the substitution effect takes over: income rise make the cost of having children rise too (you want to invest in HC, the mother loses more wage, return on investments in women has increased)

Question 18

The child’s three purposes:

Answer 18

1. Insurance
2. Income
3. Satisfaction

Question 19

Child as insurance:

Answer 19

If no pensions and social security, children can serve as insurance, having someone taking care of you, this function make parents want to have many children - make sure that at least one takes care of you. Better social nets –> less demand.

Question 20

Child as income:

Answer 20

Child labor and help at home. Urbanization decrease income potential of children.

Question 21

Child as satisfaction:

Answer 21

Fun to have kids, but partly related to fertility norms, these fertility norms respond to economic growth but with a lag. (Telenovelas in Brazil glmaorized the life with few kids). After demographic transition, this is the only function left, which i good!

Question 22

How to get from quantitty to quality in children?

Answer 22

Most reward education more so that the benefits of quality increases, also if parents are better educated and now the benefits of it + if supply of educ and health care increases –> more likely to invest in your child.

Question 23

Effect of decreased maternal mortality:

Answer 23

This would promote having more children, so it is a bit contradictive to child/infant mortality, but as so many other things happening during growth that speak for less children, this effect will not break through.

Question 24

Women’s bargaining power when it comes to how many children to have:

Answer 24

Women often prefer less children (obviously since the cost of having children fall disproportionately on women), so if they have more to say, they could et closer to their desired level and switch to quality.

Question 25

What can be done to increase quality and decrease quantity?

Answer 25

• Family planning (maybe without his knowledge)
• Shift bargaining power
• Inform and involve fathers