5.Electoral Process and Direct Democracy (only direct democracy done) Flashcards
Which factor has the biggest impact on election outcomes? - Money - YES
-As a general rule, higher spending candidates have a greater chance of winning elections
-Incumbents traditionally outspend challengers. In the 2016 Senate elections, on average, incumbents raised $9 million which challengers raised just under $600,000 and in 2016, 90% of senators and 98% of House members were re-elected.
-2020 election was the most expensive in history at $14.4 billion in total
-Money is spent on a whole range of campaigning activity, including private polls and social media. The bulk of it continues to be spent on television advertisements though
-A lot more of the money spent of advertising is producing material that attacks other candidates- ‘attack ads’
Which factor has the biggest impact on election outcomes? - Money - NO
-Money is no guarantee of success. Hilary Clinton raised and spent more than twice as much as Donald Trump in 2016 but lost the election
-In 2016 Trump used cheap new media tactics such as Twitter to campaign, meaning less funds were needed
Which factor has the biggest impact on election outcomes? - Media - YES
-Closely tied with money, candidates desire positive and frequent media coverage
-The media are traditionally important in raising the profile and name recognition of candidates which is very important in elections like 2008 with the little-known Obama and in 2012 with Republican candidate Mitt Romney, whereas it was irrelevant in 2016, as both main candidates were very well known
-The media focus of the two main parties and their candidates and this is often cited as a reason why third parties/independents fare badly, although the FTPT voting system is a large reason
-Increasingly, candidates spend and concentrate on new media- it is estimated that together, Trump and Clinton in 2016 spent $80 million on Facebook ads
Which factor has the biggest impact on election outcomes? - Media - NO
-Traditionally, the three televised presidential debates are seen as essentially important. This is less true nowadays when there are fewer truly independent voters willing to be swayed. For example, Hilary Clinton in 2016, according to polls, won all three debates, yet this appeared to have minimal impact. Also, more voters get their political news from social media
-Much of the broadcast media is already informally politically aligned, e.g. Fox News is predominantly watched by Republicans and CNN by Democrats which limits the ability of traditional media to sway political views. Just the same, on platforms like Twitter, Democrats mostly follow Democrats and Republicans mostly follow Republicans which again limits the ability of media to change voting behaviour and creating an echo-chamber
Which factor has the biggest impact on election outcomes? - Issues - YES
-Despite strong pre-existing political partisanship, issues and policies shape the vote of many Americans, above all independent or undecided voters
-This encompass a mixture of past achievements/failures, especially for incumbents, and future policy pledges
-At different times, different issues dominate- for example in 2004, the main issues was probably security and foreign policy after the 9/11 attacks or the financial crisis being the main issue in the 2008 election
-Key issues in 2016 included immigration and the personal qualities (or lack thereof) of both main candidates
Which factor has the biggest impact on election outcomes? - Issues - NO
-Strong pre-existing political partisanship means that many Americans will not change their vote based on political issues in the moment due to party loyalties
Which factor has the biggest impact on election outcomes? - Leadership - YES
-Especially at presidential level, leadership qualities play a big role in campaigns and voting outcomes.
-Much of this comes down to trust, perceived competency and general ‘likeability’
-Great emphasis is place on both personal integrity and ability to cope in a crisis.
-Leadership is closely tied in to candidate personalities and track records. Past indiscretions such as affairs or business failures are often highlighted by opponents as rendering a candidate untrustworthy e.g. Hillary Clinton 2016 with her deleted emails from when she was Secretary of State
Which factor has the biggest impact on election outcomes? - The Significance of Incumbency - YES
Incumbents traditionally outspend challengers. In the 2016 Senate elections, on average, incumbents raised $9 million which challengers raised just under $600,000
Incumbents have an advantage in all US elections and enjoy high re-election rates. In 2016, 90% of senators and 98% of House members were re-elected.
-Incumbents tend to do better since they raise and spend more money, they have greater name recognition and they have established campaign teams and staff
-They can also highlight concrete past achievements and voting records to electors. There was also the issue of ‘pork-barrelling’, namely getting federal money channeled into often dubious by expensive local projects, e.g. the Bridge to Nowhere in Gravina Island, Alaska which was proposed by Republicans for the 2008 election
Which factor has the biggest impact on election outcomes? - The Significance of Incumbency - NO
-However, high re-election rates should not be taken as evidence for wider popular approval of the political institutions themselves. Congress as a whole has had positive approval ratings of barely more than 10% in recent years. This paradox is perhaps best explained by Americans blaming other states’ congressmen, not their own.
-Since the end of WW2, 4 US Presidents have failed to be re-elected and only served one term, compared to 8 have been re-elected for a second term, thus there is a 66% re-election rate for the President which is far less than the 90% and 98% in the House and Senate
-Shows that their ability is seen as more important, but it could be argued that this is merely due to the President not being elected in a state or district of which many have a distinct leaning
Split-ticket voting in decline - in the states
-When the electorate votes for candidates of different political parties for different offices in the same election
-The increasing partisanship in US politics had led to a decline in this
-In 2004, 4 states voted for Republican George W. Bush for President but elected a Democrat Senator, By 2016 all 50 states voted the same way in the presidential and senatorial race
-This is reflected by the numbers of Senators of different parties, By 1999 30 states had split Senate delegations, by 2017 just 12 states had split Senate delegations
Split-ticket voting in decline - in Congressional districts
-Congressional districts can vote in the presidential race for one party and the House race for another party, in what are called ‘split districts’
-The increasing partisanship in US politics had led to a decline in this
-In the 2016 election there were only 35 split districts in the nation
There are fewer competitive districts
-A competitive district is where the House member won by less than 10%
-In 1992 there were 110 competitive districts, by 2016 there were only 30 competitive districts
-This means that it is very difficult for party control of the House to change hands e.g. In 2016 the Democrats needed just 30 seats to win control of the House, however due to few competitive districts they only made a gain of 6 seats
-Members that represent safe districts are less likely to make deals with the opposition
The President’s party tends to lose seats in the mid-terms
-In the 6 midterms between 1994 and 2014, the president’s party lost an average of 25 House seats and 5 Senate seats
-In 2002, this was the only midterm in 40 years which the president’s party gained seats in both chambers, mostly due to 9/11 meaning people backed the strong government of Bush
-Voters often see midterms as a chance to express their disapproval with the president, with voters of the party not in office being more motivated to do so e.g. In 2006 voters expressed their disapproval with W. Bush’s failure to conclude the military operation in Iraq when the Democrats took majority in the House and took 49-49 in the Senate
Impact of race on voting behaviour
-After the Party realignment and the start of the Democrats arguing for civil rights they were heavily supported in the black vote
-Since the beginning of the 2000s, Democrats have constantly gotten around 90% of the black vote
-On top of that in the 2020 election, the Democrats got 65% of the Latino and Asian vote
Impact of religion on voting behaviour
-Distinctly greater support of the established christian religions for the more conservative Republicans - won 60% of the Protestant vote
-However, Democrats who have a platform arguing for civil rights have seen a much greater support among Jewish people who have a history of recent immigration to the US - Biden won 75% of the Jewish vote in 2022
