5.1.1 Presidential elections and their significance Flashcards
3
Describe the constiutional requirements to be President
- 35 years old
- Natural born US citizen
- Resident in US for 14 years
3
Describe the constitutional requirements of the Presidential election
- Fixed terms
- Indirect election - states vote where their ECVs should go
- Constitution left Congress and states to decide how elections work in practice
2
Describe the fixed terms of Presidents
- 2 x 4 year terms
- Up to 2 years at end of term (if have been VP) + 2 x 4 years terms - 10 years total
6
Outline the presidential election cycle
- Invisible Primary
- Party primaries and caucuses
- National Party Convention
- Election Day
- Electoral College ballots cast
- Inauguration
5
Describe the invisible primary
- Period prior to formal start of intraparty primary elections
- Potential candidates compete to attract attention, funding and endorsements for their campaign
- Aim to gain name recognition to become viable candidate
- Candidacy announcement attracts serious media attention e.g. Trump - 2015
- Televised debates
2
Give a stat/examples that describes the withdrawn candidacies in the invisible candidacy
- Democrat Primary 2020 - 18/29 candidates dropped out prior to formal start of primary
- Republican Primary 2024 - Mike Pence
3
Describe donations in the invisible primary system
- Attracting funding essential for candidate to survive long and expensive campaign
- ‘free’ media attention - estimates suggest Trump benefitted $2bn worth in 2016 due to controversial comments
- May partially self-finance e.g. Michael Bloomburg (outspent Biden campaign, though made little ground)
2
How does the primary and caucus system work?
- Organised by individual parties within each state
- Public effectively vote to determine who their state delegates will vote for at National Party Convention
3
Describe primaries
- Intraparty ballot to nominate party candidate
- Secret ballot
- Conducted on state-wide basis
4
Describe caucuses
- Intraparty town hall to nominate party candidate
- Often public voting
- Conducted in small local areas
- Less commonly used
3
List the 3 types of primary/caucus
- Open
- Closed
- Semi-closed
3
Describe open primaries/caucuses
- All voters in state can participate, regardless of whether they are a registered party member
- Voters can only participate in one primary
- e.g. Democrat voter/party member can choose to vote in Republican primary e.g. Nikki Haley 2024
1
Describe closed primaries/caucuses
- Only registered party members can participate
2
Describe semi-closed primaries/caucuses
- Regsitered party members only permitted to participate in their own party primary/caucus
- Unregistered voter can choose which party’s to participate in
3
Describe the different ways in which delegates are allocated
- Proportional - all Dem primaries/caucuses, some Republican
- Winner-takes-all - some Republican
- Proportional unless threshold reach - threshold often set at 50%, applies in some Republican
3
Describe frontloading
- movement of primaries to earlier point in calendar to give more significance to primary or caucus within state
- thereby gives more influence to state party members/voters
- NH and Iowa traditionally first
1
How many super tuesday contests were there in 2024 primaries?
15 states (+ one territory)
2 - (2) (3)
Describe the formal roles of party conventions
-
Select presidential candidate
- simple majority needed
- delegates bound by party rules on who they have to vote fo
-
Adopt party platform (manifesto)
- ‘policy committee’ agree platform in cojunction with presumptive nominee prior to convention
- theoretically allows amendments
- mostly serves to rubber stamp
2 - (2) (2)
Describe the informal roles of party conventions
-
Selling the candidate
- multi-day event with extensive TV coverage
- can allow rising stars to speak e.g. Obama 2004
-
Party unity
- invisible primary reveals flaws of candidates and thereby exposes internal party divisions
- runner-up may speak to promote presumptive nominee e.g. Clinton 2008
3
Describe Joe Biden’s 2020 primary campaign
- Iowa - 4th
- New Hampshire - 5th
- Super Tuesday - topped 10/14 states
1
Describe the declining importance of National Party Conventions
- greater emphasis placed on primaries/caucuses reduced convention to symbolic one
1
Give examples of the symbolic stature of National Party Conventions
- 2016 RNC - took convention jut 6 minutes to agree party platform despite concerns from LGBT members via a voice vote
3
What occurs in between the NPC and Election Day?
- Extensive fundraising
- Campaign events
- Televised presidential debates
3
Describe ‘Bellwether’ states
- Those who have historically tended to vote for successful candidate
- 2020 - 96% of campaigning by Trump/Biden took place in 12 states
- Swing states - specific to election
1
What happened in the 2016 Clinton v Trump debates
- snap polls showed Clinton won every debate - but lsot election
2
How are ‘electors’ selected
- Selected by parties - decide who are electors in each state
- Often faithful party activists - used as reward for patronage purposes
3
How many ECVs does each state have?
- Number of congressional districts + number of senators
- DC gets 3 ECVs
- Guarantees minimum 3 ECVs per state - leads to disproportion
3
Describe ‘faithless electors’
- Electors who do not vote as their state did
- 33 states have states preventing faithless electors
- 10 faithless electors in 2016 (3 had votes invalidated due to state laws)
2
Describe the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC)
- member states pledge all ECVs to winner of national popular vote, regardless of own state outcome
- members: 17 states + DC
3
Describe limits to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC)
- 2020 - Joe Biden won anyways in all participant states (+DC)
- Would only come into force when it would guarantee that popular vote candidate wins
- would raise legal constitutional issues if enacted
2
How do Nebraska and Maine vote?
- Allocate 2 ECVs to state popular vote winner
- 1 ECV to winner in each congressional district
3
Describe the arguments that the electoral college should be changed
- Representation
- Democracy
- Participation
4
Describe the argument that the electoral college should be changed - representation
- Smaller states over represneted as each state/district guaranteed 3 ECVs
- bellwether states recieve excessive focus
- Less focus on majority of states where result is more predictable effectively ignored - Obama 2012
- Large metropolitan cities can dominate state votes - New York
1
Give an example of a state ECV disproportionality
CA ECV represents 3 times the population of a Wyoming ECV
1
Give an example that shows how unwinnable states are ignored in Presidential elections
Obama did not visit Utah, SD, Idaho in 2012
5
Describe the argument that the electoral college should not be changed - representation
- Ensured small states’ role, culture and traditions are considered
- as US population heavily concentrated in few big states
- upholds RD and federalism
- allows different electoral procedures in different states
- 2012 - Obama won 51% popular vote + 332 ECVs, representing strong plurality
5
Describe the argument that the electoral college should be changed - democracy
- 2 of last 6 presidential elections have seen popular vote winner lose electoral college
- ECVs not allocated proportionally
- Effectively excludes 3rd party candidates as votes are thinly spread across nation (e.g. Ross Perot 1992 and 1996)
- Biden won CA by over 5m votes in 2020 - yet not reflected in ECV count
- faithless electors undermine democratic principles and threaten legitimacy
5
Describe the argument that the electoral college should not be changed - democracy
- FPTP creates two-party system that produces clear winner
- Prevents Congress selecting President/VP
- Ensured clear mandate
- No consensus on what should replace elec college: PR of ECVs vs popular vote
- Faithless electors insignificant
3
Describe the argument that the electoral college should be changed - participation
- States with more ECVs have higher turnouts (e.g. Hawaii has less)
- Hawaii also had faithless elector in 2016 - link between abuse of electoral college and voter apathy
- Unwilling to split ticket by voting for 3rd party candidate - ‘no-labels party’
2
Give an example that shows the link between the state ECV size and turnout in the 2020 election
- Alaska (3 ECVs) - 60%
- CA (55 ECVs) - 80%
3
Describe the argument that the electoral college should not be changed - participation
- Will enjoy high turnouts regardless of electoral college reform
- Turnout rose by 6% in 2020 despite supposed disillusion following popular vote/elec college disparity in 2016
- Marginal states see very high turnouts
2
Give an example of a battleground state with a very high turnout
- Colorado, a secondary battleground state
- saw 73% turnout in 2020
7
Describe the factors of the signficance of the incumbency on a president seeking a 2nd term
- Name recognition - greater than competitor
- Fundraising advantages
- Lack of primary challenger - can focus on national campaign
- Policy successes in government
- Can introduce populist policies prior to election to appease voters
- Media attention for 4 years
- Vote inertia - voters often risk-averse and unlikely to vote for change
5
Describe limits to the signficance of the incumbency on a president seeking a 2nd term
- Incumbents can be judges for failures e.g. Trump - pandemic handling
- 3rd party factor - Perot 1992
- May face primary challenge e.g. Dean Phillips
- Economic/FP crisis
- Opponent may command significant name recognition - Trump 2024
5
Describe how the presidential election creates a two-party system
- Winner-takes-all
- Federal nature
- Broad ideologies
- Expense of campaigns
- Electoral rules
2
Give an example of how FPTP disadvantages 3rd parties in the 2016 election
- 3rd party vote tripled to 7m
- Yet came nowhere close to winning a state
3
How does federalism create a 2 party system?
- state runs own elections
- no state allocates ECVs by PR
- 48 states allocate ECVs on winner-takes-all basis
3
How do ideological factors create a 2 party system?
- Main 2 parties comprise broad ideologies
- Difficult for third party/independents to carve out distinctive policy area
- ‘co-optation’ - main parties assume policies of 3rd party
2
How does financial considerations create a 2 party system?
- Smaller parties lack funding for centrally-organised, extensive campaign
- lack membership for mobilisation
2
Candidates need to poll an average of (…) in national polls to qualify for debates
15%
Therefore institutionally discludes third parties/independent candidates
2
Describe the 2 methods of running-mate selection
- Balanced ticket - select running mate that opposes their characteristics (age, gender, ethnicity and wing of party)
- Reinforcing ticket - Al Gore 1992 - moderate, young (Arkansas Govenor and Tenessee senator)
1
Biden finished 5th in (…) in the 2020 Democrat primaries, the 2nd contest, yet went on to win the election
New Hampshire
2
Describe a candidate that ran for President to boost their public profile
- Pete Buttigieg - Mayor of South Bend, Indiana
- Now Transport Secretary
1
Give an example of co-optation
- Trump embraced Libertarian ideals (e.g. tax cuts) and sought to win party nomination in 2024
