5 Macroeconomics & Globalization Flashcards
What is a recession (contraction)?
A period during which real GDP falls and unemployment rises.
What is a trough?
When economic activity reaches its lowest point.
What is a recovery (expansion)?
When output and employment rise. Eventually, the price level also rises.
What are possible causes of recessions or troughs?
- when consumer confidence declines
- a miscalculation in fiscal or monetary policy by the government
- a major default triggers a cascade of confidences leading to reduced lending and consumption
What is a leading economic indicator?
A forecast of future economic trends.
What are some examples of leading economic indicators?
- the average workweek for production workers
- new orders for consumer goods & materials
- stock prices
- new orders for nondefense capital goods
- building permits for houses
- the money supply
- index of consumer indications
- the spread between short-term and long-term interest rates
What are two leading economic indicators in which a change in either suggest a future change in real GDP in the opposite direction?
- initial claims for unemployment insurance - because more people out of work indicates slowing business activity
- vendor performance - because vendors have slack time and are carrying high levels of inventory
What is a lagging indicator?
An indicator that changes after the change in economic activity has occurred.
What are examples of lagging indicators?
- average duration of employment
- commercial and industrial loans outstanding
- average prime rate charged by the banks
- change in the consumer price index for services
What is a coincident indicator?
An indicator that changes at the same time as the change in the economic activity.
What are examples of coincident indicators?
- industrial production
- manufacturing and trade sales
- personal income minus transfer payments
What is inflation?
A sustained increase in the general level of prices. The reported rate of inflation is therefore an average of the increase across all prices in the economy.
What is a price index?
A measure of the price of a market basket of goods and services in one year compared with the price in a designated base year. By definition, the index for the base year is 100.
What is the calculation for rate of inflation?
Current-year price index - prior-year price index / prior-year price index
What is the consumer price index (CPI)?
It is the most common price index for adjusting nominal GDP. It measures changes in the general price level by a pricing of items on a typical urban household shopping list.
What is the calculation for consumer price index (CPI)?
(cost of market basket in current year / cost of market basket in base year) x 100
How are monetary amounts compared considering inflation?
To compare two monetary amounts in constant dollars, they must be deflated using the appropriate price index. The difference then must be divided by the prior period’s amount.
Ex - (2021 amount / 2021 CPI) - (2022 amount / 2022 CPI) = an increase or decrease adjusted for inflation
What is real vs nominal income?
Nominal income is money received by a consumer as wages, interest, rent, and profits. Real income is the purchasing power of the income received. Ex - nominal income is a salary of $64,000, due to inflation real income may be only $59,000 as that is the purchasing power of the income received.
What happens when the rate of increase in nominal income is less than the inflation rate? Ex - you get a 4% raise but inflation has risen by 6%
Real income decreases
What are the macroeconomic effects of inflation?
- unexpected inflation can cause economic chaos
- the efficiency of economic relationships relies on stable pricing
What are the principal effects of inflation on financial reporting?
inflation affects inventory, COGS, and equipment and depreciation
What affect does inflation have on an LIFO inventory accounting system?
In a period of rapidly rising prices, LIFO increases COGS and decreases operating income, thereby decreasing income tax liability.
What affect does inflation have on an FIFO inventory accounting system?
In a period of rising prices COGS consists of lower inventory costs, thereby increasing operating income and increasing income tax liability.
What affect does inflation have on depreciation expense?
The depreciable base of a long-lived asset is its historical cost. During a period of rising prices, depreciation expense is lower at historical cost than if it were stated in terms of replacement cost. Reported operating income is higher in the current period, but replacing such assets as they are retired is more expensive.