5 - Equities (fin) Flashcards
Capital structure
Debt
Preference shares - fixed divi, no voting rights
(not all comps have pref)
Ordinary shares - variable divi, voting rights
What does the L in plc mean
public limited companies - limited liability of the shareholders
insolvency - shareholders not liable to pay off debt
How are pref shares similar to loan stock
pref share pay fixed divi if there are sufficient post tax profits
loan stock - interest must be paid even if company is losing money
Reasons to purchase shares?
Income via divis
Capital appreciation via share price increase
Adv and disadv of listing for the company
advantages
- raising capital
- increase liquidity
- raises profile
disadv
- dilution of ownership
-relinquishing control
-hostile takeovers
DR?
benefits?
Depositary receipt
- fin instrument issued by financil intermediary to represent shares in foreign public company in a local domestic market
e.g. ADR - represents ownership in the shares of a non-US company (single or multiple) that trades in US financial markets
Can get EDR (europe) CDR (china) IDR (india etc)
- can purchase foreign shares without cross currency inconveniences
value of a share
fundamental value is NPV of all future divi payments - share value comprises of the discounted expected future growth in earnings and divi
Gordon’s growth model/ divi val model
Share price =NEXT divi / (required return - divi growth)
Advantages= simple method of valuing stock, useful for making cross industry comparisons
Disadvantages = ignores non divi factors (brand loyalty, growth, intangible assets), assumes constant growth rate
Doesnt work if comp doesnt pay divi
how to value companies that dont pay divis
rationale - via reinvestment company will be in a strong future position to pay divi
sharehodler return could be via sale of company or in form of capital gains
Modigliani-Miller theorem (M&M)
subject of theorem = whether shareholders would prefer to receive returns via capital gains or dividends
states MV of company is the PV of assets and future earnings - independent of capital structure (no diff between debt/equity finance)
- comp valuation not affected by divi payment = driven by ability to generate profit and grow
-in perf competitive market - no transaction cost/tax = value is same whether divi paid or held
shareholders indifferent to profit via divi or capital gains
Assumptions are unrealistic
- no tax differences between gains and income which there are
- no borrowing or lending costs
- assumes no transaction costs
-assumes high debt wont impact weighted avg cost of capital
Influences on share price
earning prospects
board memberships
adverse factors - legal action, poor governance reports, product callbacks
industry sentiment
macro (inflation, rates, business cycle) - some more than others i.e housebuilders
gov policy - fiscal and monetary
movements in other markets
geopolitics (particularly commodities)
deviations from traditional divi policy
behavioural weaknesses - following the crowd
Portfolio of equities - what to look for
Diversification - between sectors and geographies to reduce unsystematic risk and concentrated losses
correlation - looking for low or negative corr
beta = measure of stock’s vol relation to the entire market
B = 1 - moves in like with market
B>1 - moves more widely than market
0<B<1 - fluctuates less than wider markets
B=0 - no relationship to market movements
B<0 - inverse relationship with wider market
how can specific risk be removed
systematic risk i.e. market risk cannot be removes
specific risk - removed with diversification
15-20 stock - removes 90%
20-40 = removes 99%
funds hold more than this to prevent them having controlling shares
what is algo trading?
uses?
algo trading = use of algorithims (computer programs) to automatically buy/sell securities on XC; deciding price, quantitiy, AI models etc
to prevent to front running by others on trades placed by large institutional investors which leave large footprints on in the market - frontrunners will benefit from the uplift in price that occurs after instit investors place order
algo trading facilitates the more efficient execution of large orders on the sly
pros and cons of algo trading
pros -
protect instit investors from front running
decreased transparency as order book doesnt show whether small orders are part o large transaction - allows traders to operate with anonymity
creation of dark pols of liquidity
cons -
decreases transparency of order book
unexpected dramatic market moves - 2010 US flash crash 9% fall and rebound in US equities May 2010 - fault of UK day trader using algo systems to generate extreme vol
contrian trades could be market manipulation
prices on XC may not be true representation
HF traders may front run
EMH
3 forms?
EMH - developed by Eguene Fama
- financial markets are informationally efficient - all information discounted by market participants and current price is theoretically correct price
WEAK FORM
prices reflect historical info
tests whether publicly available info contained in historical prices is reflected in current prices
SEMI STRONG
current price reflects all public info, including all market info
tests seeks to confirm whether public info is reflected in price
STRONG FORM
current price reflect all relevant info, including historic, both public and private
strong form tests attempt to find out if all info is fully compounded in price and whether any investor can make excess profit
Believers posit best to invest in low cost, passive portfolio because of randomness of market
Opponents believe stocks can deviate from fair market val and poss to beat market
- asset bubbles are evidence stocks prices can deviate from their fair value
share price random walk
share price movements follow random pattern - where previous day’s movement uncorrelated to today’s
subscribers to random walk dont believe future price movements can be predicted from past
pros
- prices change on basis on new info - which is random by def - so follows price movement is random
-if price cycles were predictable, arbitrage and speculation would force prices to their efficient val
- plot of daily and lagged daily (t -1) of sp500 2020-2022 shows no correlation
cons
- presence of cyclical and season patterns in stock price
- Monday effect - Frank Cross - significant decline in prices on monday vs other weekdays
-january effect - Sidnet Watchel - tendency for prices to rise in jan following year end sell off for tax purposes
Behavioural finance
4 examples of biases
Investors don’t behave rationally according to BF, which is a key EMH assumption
- EMH states new info in markets processed quickly and rationally
loss aversion - losses and gains not experienced with same intensity, more discomfort with loss - can overcome by not being emotionally attached to investment.
overconfidence bias - exaggerated views of own ability, more frequent trading and less diversification - overcome by having a more LT view
anchoring bias - fixation on initial value as reference point when making decision - overcome by taking time with decision making
her behaviour - tendency to follow majority, pressure to conform, benchmark awareness, overcome through self discipline.
press and broker effects on share price
press - can effect price in short term - this could be due to natural demand flow or as result of report or speculation on result of report
broker recommendations
same as for press - potentially bigger names have more pull
takeover effect of share price
firm being acquired price tends to rise - due to premium normally paid over share price by acquiring company at time of announcement
risk of failing to generate returns required to justify premium makes it harder for acquirer share price to rise this munch
risk of takeover not occurring also dampens
new share issue effect on price
can drop if there is not enough demand in market
depends on reason for capital raise tho