4.2 The Influence of the Media Flashcards
What does the law say about broadcast media in terms of elections?
UK broadcasters are bound by law to remain neutral and offer balanced reporting of election/referendum campaigns.
How does the UK contrast to the USA?
USA networks are allowed to be politically biased. E.g. Fox News is biased towards conservative, pro-republican views.
Have televised leaders debates had much effect on elections?
It’s not clear.
For example…
- Nick Clegg’s amazing performance in 2010 debates led to a decline in the party’s share of the popular vote.
- BBC challengers debate April 2015, in which David Cameron did not take part, opinion polls suggested Ed Milliband’s poor standing in leadership polls did not change and his party lost the election it should’ve won.
Do newspapers have an effect on elections?
It doesn’t. Newspapers reflect the typical political views of their readers rather than leading them.
What examples are there to support the idea that newspapers do have an effect on elections?
- Roy Greenslade - the press does have an influence but the effect is very small and cannot be proven.
What examples are there to deny the idea that newspapers do have an effect on elections?
-
Leveson enquiry into press behaviour 2012 - Sun’s owner Rupert Murdoch admitted newspapers don’t swing votes, and they reflect readers opinion…
- However, the fact the Sun has backed every winning party at every election between 1979 and 2015 raises some questions.
- Tom Felle - may have been the case in the past but is decreasingly so. Younger voters get info off social media, so the influence of the press is waning.
What about the effect of Social Media?
More difficult for one party to gain any special advantage. However, the web is unregulated so there are opportunities for any group to gain political traction.
What examples suggest that social media is having an influence on voting behaviour in the UK?
- More useful for smaller parties, e.g. Green, which don’t have the resources to be able to compete with large parties in conventional campaigning.
- Bias: mostly used by young people who are more likely to support radical parties/candidates.
- E.g. Growth in Labour after 2015 with the use of Momentum (radical left wing of the party) on social media.
- 2017, radical social media platforms such as canary began to galvanise youth opinion, as indicated by voting stats.
When did we start using Opinion Polls?
Been used since 40s, first poll from Gallup organisation…
- Correctly predicted Labour winning the 1945 general election. Been increasingly used since then.
Do opinion polls affect voting behaviour? Give examples.
Some evidence suggests it does…
- 2015: Most polls predicting a close to a dead heat between 2 major parties, resulting in a hung parliament. In the event of this, with SNP looking to a ‘huge victory’ in Scotland, there would probably be a Labour SNP coalition. On this basis, Cons began campaigning on this basis, hoping to gain votes and win outright.
Does it matter if opinion polls inaccurate?
Doesn’t really matter. Politicians, public and media will increasingly ignore their findings in the future.
What examples suggest that opinion polls have been inaccurate?
How they’ve been inaccurate…
- Polls over-estimated Labour and Lib-Dems, and under-estimated Cons in 2015.
- Showed Cons lead varying 5%-12% in 2017, but was only 2% ahead of Labour resulting in a hung parliament (Survation and YouGov were the only 2 polls that predicted this result).
- Wrong with Independence and EU referendums.
Cannot be sure these have influenced voting behaviour as there is little research available.
What did the British Polling Council’s investigation into the performance of opinion polls conclude?
Opinion polls were simply inaccurate and statistical methods were to blame.
- They will inevitably over-estimate Labour support as they’re currently conducted.
- Report didn’t recommend banning of publication of opinion polls during the run-up to elections in case they influence voting.
