4.1 Case studies of 3 key general elections

Question 1

What is Class dealignment?

Answer 1

Class dealignment describes how social classes are voting in far fewer numbers for the political party they used to traditionally vote for.

Question 2

What is Partisan dealignment?

Answer 2

Partisan dealignment is a process whereby individuals become less partisan in terms of their support for a particular political party.

Question 3

What is Governing competency?

Answer 3

Governing competency refers to the perceived ability of the party in government to govern effectively.

Question 4

What is Disillusion and apathy?

Answer 4

Disillusion and apathy refers to the extent to which individuals become increasingly disengaged with politics.

This may be measured in several ways, such as:

• Low turnout in elections.
• Declining membership of political parties.

Question 5

What is a Manifesto?

Answer 5

A Manifesto is a published declaration of the intended programme of government by a political party. It details what policies the party would intend to pursue in government, often making a series of specific pledges or actions.

Question 6

What is a Mandate?

Answer 6

A Mandate refers to the authority to carry out a policy in the manifesto, given by the electorate to a party or candidate which wins the election.

Question 7

What are the 4 classifications of social class in society?

Answer 7

4 classifications of social in society:

• AB - Higher intermediate managerial administrative, professional occupations, e.g. banker, doctor, senior executive (make up 22.2% of the pop’n).
• C1 - Supervisory, clerical and junior managerial, administrative, professional occupations, e.g. teacher, office manager, IT manager, social worker (make up 30.8% of the pop’n).
• C2 - Skilled manual occupations, e.g. plumber, hairdresser mechanic, train driver (make up 20.9% of the pop’n).
• DE - Semi-skilled and unskilled manual occupations, unemployed and lowest grade occupations, e.g. labourer, bar staff, call centre staff, unemployed (make up 26.1% of the pop’n)

Question 8

How easy was it to determine voting behaviour in the 1960s?

Answer 8

As many as 80% of people voted the way their social class indicated in the 1960s.

• AB - favoured Conservatives.
• C1 - typically Conservatives.
• C2 - mostly Labour.
• DE - mostly Labour.

This meant the political battle fought between, those whose class identity was not clear and those who did not vote the way their class indicated that they might.

Question 9

What were Deviant and Floating voters? In what sense did they often determine elections?

Answer 9

Deviant voters were people who voted against what their social class would typically vote, e.g. DE Conservatives or AB Labour.

Floating voters are those who vote unpredictably in different elections and who are liable to change the way they vote fairly often. Floating voters were pivotal in winning or losing elections as they were “Swing Seats”.

Question 10

For what 3 reasons was class so closely associated with voting?

Answer 10

1. The way one voted was a part of one’s class identity: e.g. to be middle or upper class was to be Conservative and added to your status.
2. Both major parties developed strong, deep roots within communities, so there was a culture of voting for one party or another: e.g. wealthy commuter belt around London was steeped in Conservative values.
3. Selfish reason: e.g. Tory gov’t perceived to govern more in interests of middle/upper class, while Labour developed policies to help working-class and poor - so rational to choose party associated with your class.

Question 11

Which stats reflect the two major political parties’ relationship with social class?

Answer 11

• Labour have been consistently popular with DE class, with lacking results in 2010 and 2015.
• Conservatives have been far more popular in AB class and consistently so.

This displays how AB class is simply loyal, whereas DE class is dynamic and votes for the party which benefits the working class more.

Question 12

For what 3 reasons does class appear to be less influential today?

Answer 12

1. Dealignment: social class has declined in importance in UK culture.
2. Main parties, e.g. Liberal Democrats, have tended, especially after the 1980s, to adopt more ‘centrist’ policies which appeal to a wider class base, largely in the centre of society.
3. Rise in other factors: There’s been a rise in the influence of other factors, notably valence issues. This has tended to replace social class as a key factor in voting behaviour.

Question 13

What effect did social class have on the EU referendum? Note statistics.

Answer 13

Working-class more likely to vote leave, which accords with the tendency of these groups to support UKIP.

However, these voting trends may not have been down to class but were issue-based. soooo…

• C2 and DE more likely to vote leave, because they believe they’ve been most disadvantaged by EU membership…
  
  • e.g. free movement of labour within EU created an adverse effect on employment and wages.
    
    • So, support for UKIP and Leave campaign was less to do with class voting and more a case of self-interested or instrumental voting.

Question 14

What impact does GENDER have on voting in modern elections?

Answer 14

Virtually no difference between the way men and women vote:

• % voting Conservative:
  
  • 1992: M 41, F 44.
  • 2010: M 38, F 36.
  • 2017: M 43, F 40.
• % voting Labour:
  
  • 1992: M 37, F 34.
  • 2010: M 28, F 31.
  • 2017: M 35, F 42.
• % voting Liberal Democrats:
  
  • 1992: M 18, F 18.
  • 2010: M 22, F 24.
  • 2017: M 10, F 9.

Question 15

What impact does AGE have on voting in modern elections?

Answer 15

Strong correlation between party support and age. Two clear patterns:

1. The younger the voter, the more likely they are to vote Labour and less likely they are to vote Tory.
2. Younger people more likely to vote for third parties, e.g. Lib Dems.

Question 16

What was the effect of age on the 2019 general election?

Answer 16

2019 election:

• 58% aged 70+ voted Con. 16% aged 18-24 voted for them.
• 38% of under 29’s voted Labour. 6% aged 70+ voted for them.
• Lib Dems polled around 20% for all age groups.

Question 17

What was the effect of age on the 2017 general election?

Answer 17

2017 election:

• 69% aged 70+ voted Con. 21% under 29’s voted for them.
• 67% aged 18-24 voted Labour. 19% aged 70+ voted for them.
• Lib Dems polled around 8% for all aged groups.

Question 18

What was the effect of age on the 2015 general election?

Answer 18

2015 election:

• 45% aged 65+ voted Con. 32% of under 29’s voted for them.
• 36% of under 29’s voted Lab. 25% aged 65+ voted for them.
• Lib Dems polled at around 8% for all aged groups.

Question 19

What tendencies & explanations offered for the effect of age on voting?

Answer 19

• Younger people don’t want to be seen as ‘conservative’ in the general sense of the word, and voting Tory might be a symptom of that emotion.
• Tendency for young people to hold more left-wing views, e.g:
  
  • Equality.
  • Justice.
  • Freedom.
• Alleged Winston Churchill said, “If a man is not a socialist by the age of 20, he has no heart. If he is not a conservative by the time he’s 40, he has no brain.” - shows young voters are emotional and older ones are more rational.
• Younger people have fewer responsibilities, so can indulge in more outward-looking ideas. But, financial responsibility etc, leads to more cautious views - older gen see Tory party as more family-friendly, more security conscious and more sympathetic to property owners.
• Younger people tend to adopt more radical ideas, e.g. environmental protection, social justice, democratic reform, so vote for more ‘radical’ parties.
  
  • Large proportion of new members of Labour Party in 2015-16, who joined to support Jeremy Corbyn, were young voters.
  • SNP radical in one respect (Scottish Independence) but can generally be seen as a moderate left-wing party. Also, voting to be independent in 2014 was an issue more prevalent in young voters.

Question 20

What effect does ETHNICITY have on voting?

Answer 20

Bias towards Labour clear and consistent.

British Future (think tank) suggests majority of Hindu and Skih community vote Tory, but black and Muslim community support Labour in large numbers:

• % BAME voting Labour:
  
  • 1997: 70%
  • 2010: 60%
  • 2015: 65%
  • 2017: 65%
• % BAME voting Conservative:
  
  • 1997: 18%
  • 2010: 16%
  • 2015: 23%
  • 2017: 21%
• % BAME voting Liberal Democrats:
  
  • 1997: 9%
  • 2010: 20%
  • 2015: 4%
  • 2017: 6%

Question 21

In what sense might social class be a key factor here when looking at different sections of the BAME community in the UK?

Answer 21

BAME supporting Lab probably more related to economic factors.

BAME community is, on the whole, poorer than the white community, and are more in C2 and DE classes so are more likely to have more left-wing views.

• Not about race, more about social class and income.

This would explain why Sikh and Hindu communities have moved towards Tory voting…

• These well-established groups have prospered more than black and Muslim groups and are increasingly middle-class; with middle class comes Tory voting.

Question 22

In what sense might differences in REGION also be related to social class?

Answer 22

Wealth, income and prosperity not evenly distributed across the UK.

• SE of UK more wealthy than many areas of UK.
• Areas of deprivation and where traditional industries have declined are more likely to support Labour policies (maybe due to Thatcher perhaps).

In other words, regional variations may be class variations spread onto the axis of geography.

Question 23

What conclusions can be drawn from the statistics on region?

Answer 23

• SE England solidly Con.
• Con dominant in midlands, though slightly less in south.
• Lab leads north of England, but not decisively so.
• Scot moved from Lab stronghold in 2010 to SNP dominated, then returning to 3 party contrast in 2017.
• Until 2015, Wales not dominated by 1 party, but genuine competition between 4 parties there. But, after 2017, labour still dominates.
• Lib Dems have little support outside London and SE of England.

Question 24

What reasons have been suggested for the decline in support for the two main parties that has taken place in recent decades?

Answer 24

• Voters reported they could see little difference between the main parties as they sought to capture the majority of votes in the ‘centre ground’ of political opinion - loosened a person’s attachment to their party.
• Emergence of several alternatives, smaller parties attracted the support of former core voters, e.g. UKIP, SNP, Green, Lib Dems.
• Partisan dealignment.

Question 25

What reasons have been given for their [the 2 major parties] increased vote share in 2017?

Answer 25

2017 election saw an increase in voting for 2 major parties. Leapt up to levels seen before 80s. Reasons are:

• UKIP support collapsed after 2016 EU referendum.
• Very clear ideological differences between main parties.
• Younger people began to vote again in large numbers (most voting for Labour).
• Voting for SNP fell significantly, with these votes mostly picked up by 2 main parties.

Question 26

What is meant by VALENCE issues? What kind of issues does this often include?

Answer 26

Political analyst Kellner summed up valence as:

• Millions of swing voters do not take a strong view on individual issues and take a valence view. They judge parties and politicians based on character and not manifestos.
  
  • How competent are the potential gov?
  • How economically competent does the potential gov seem?
  • How united are they?
  • Are they led by a dominant, decisive leader with a good track record?
  • Are they going to be good in a crisis?

Question 27

Where have valence issues affected parties?

Answer 27

• Economic Competence: Labour 2008 blamed for contributing to crisis and allowing debt levels to rise too much. By contrast, Tory’s had an image of fiscal responsibility and good management. Labour lost 2010 and 2015 partly on economic voting.
• Unity Of Party: voters like certainty, so a disunited party is deffo not certain.
  
  • 2019 general election, disunity in Labour party led to many people voting against labour and for the Tory’s.
• Leadership: Voters like strong and personal characteristics, weak leaders are rarely supported.
  
  • Ed Milliband and Nick Clegg suffered from being perceived as weak in 2015 election.
  • Gordon Brown was punished in 2010 election for being seen as indecisive.

Question 28

What is meant by Rational Choice voting?

Answer 28

Rational Choice (or ‘issue voting’) model of voting behaviour suggests some voters, who aren’t committed to one party or another and don’t hold extreme political views, make a rational decision at each election and base their vote on that.

Among issue voters, some political issues are more salient (important) than others. In other words…

• there are policy areas that affect the way in which people vote and others that don’t.
  
  • Research into salient issues is done before elections do parties can make suitable policies to attract voters.

Question 29

What is the difference between EXPRESSIVE and
INSTRUMENTAL voting?

Answer 29

If we assume voters rationally seek to derive benefit from their choice of candidate and party when voting, there are 2 types of benefit:

1. Expressive voting: a voter derives satisfaction if they vote for a party that will benefit society as a whole.
2. Instrumental voting: to choose a party whose policies are likely to benefit the voter him- or herself.
   
   • e.g. businessman may support a party who is promising a reduction in corporate taxes.

Question 30

What kind of factors do the public cite as important when judging PARTY LEADERS?

Answer 30

• Are they trustworthy?
• Do they promote a strong image of the UK abroad?
• Are they decisive?
• Can they keep the govt united?
• Record in office
• Decisiveness
• Compassion
• Honesty and sincerity
• Strong leadership
• Clear vision
• Communication skills

2015 - David Cameron had a much more positive campaign than Ed Milliband.

1997 - Tony Blair had a very positive image and won 2 elections later. But, replaced by Gordon Brown for 2007 election after Blair’s image became tarnished.

Brown faced a negative image based on poor media portray and reputation of indecisiveness, which contributed to his Labour defeat in 2010.

Question 31

For what reasons does Brown suggest that Party leaders are relatively unimportant in deciding elections? How does 2015 support this?

Answer 31

He says party leaders winning or losing elections is very rarely true.

In 2015, Labour’s vote rose more than the Conservative vote, despite less popularity (1.5% to 0.8% between 2010 and 2015). While UKIPs share of vote shot up 9.5%, despite Nigel Farage being the most unpopular of all leaders.

Question 32

What is meant by TACTICAL VOTING?

Answer 32

Tactical voting is undertaken in certain circumstances in certain constituencies. In elections, third-party votes are wasted because they have little or no impact on the outcome of elections. Those who support such a party tend to not vote for the first party but instead vote for a party who has more chance of getting in that constituency, e.g. a Lib Dem supporter in a Lab or Con dominated constituency.

• Lab supporters voting Con to stop UKIP, in a contentious Con/UKIP constituency.
• Green party supporters voting Lab to keep out Con, in a close Lab/Con contest.
• Con supporters voting SNP to keep out Lab candidate, in a close SNP/Lab contest.

Question 33

What level of effect is Tactical voting believed to have?

Answer 33

Hard to estimate how much occurs and even harder to determine its effect in electoral outcomes.

• Curtice, estimated in 2015 election tactical voting could’ve affected 77 constituencies.
• IPSOS MORI’s research into voting at 2010 election suggested 10% of voters chose their second option and the figure was specifically higher for Lib Dem supporters at 16%.

BUT…

• Tactical votes to keep SNP out in Scotland failed as there was a big win for SNP 2019 (48 seats with 13 seat change).
• Lib Dem support may have only happened as a result of tactical voting.

Question 34

For what 3 reasons has media become increasingly important politically?

Answer 34

1. In an age of dealignment, in which social factors such as party identification and social class have declined in importance, the scope for the media’s political influence has declined.
2. Increased media penetration into people’s lives through the development of TV in the 50s onwards, and the proliferation of channels and media output associated with the new media.
3. Media are more powerful economic actors, especially through the emergence of major media corporations which have interests that incorporate the domain of publishing, TV, Film, Music, computers and telecommunications.

Question 35

What is meant by the PLURALIST MODEL, how does it view media? What is the major criticism of this model?

Answer 35

Pluralist model portrays the media as an ideological marketplace in which a range of political views are debated/discussed - suggests their impact is essentially neutral, in that they reflect the balance of forces within society.

The media play a ‘watchdog’ role - ensures citizens are properly informed, and to expose incompetence on the part of politicians.

However…

• pluralist model fails to recognise the extent to which weak and unorganised groups can be excluded from access to mainstream publishing/broadcasting, meaning the medias ideological marketplace is narrow and generally pro-establishment in character.

Question 36

What view does the DOMINANT IDEOLOGY MODEL have of the media? What is the biggest weakness of this view?

Answer 36

Dominant ideology model portrays the mass media as a politically conservative force that is aligned to the interests of economic and social elites - key role is to promote compliance and political passivity on the part of the masses.

A particular feature of the model is the emphasis it places on the impact of ownership as the ultimate determinant of the political and other views that the mass media disseminate, whether this ownership in the hands of major corporations or media moguls.

Weakness:

• Tends to be deterministic and neglects the role played by people’s own values in filtering and possibly resisting, media messages.

Question 37

What about the view of the ELITE-VALUES MODEL?

Answer 37

The model’s attention is towards the mechanisms through which media output is controlled.

• Suggests editors, journalists and broadcasters enjoy sig professional independence, and the most interventionist media moguls are only able to set a broad political agenda, and rarely control day-to-day editorial decision making.
  
  • Thus, the media’s political bias neglects the values of groups that are disproportionately represented among its senior professionals.

Question 38

What does this [elite values model] fail to take account of?

Answer 38

The pressures that bear on senior media professionals, including the views and interests of owners, commercial consideration and rating figures.

Question 39

What does the MARKET MODEL believe is the driver of media?

Answer 39

Holds that newspapers and TV reflect the views of the general public because private media outlets are business concerned with profit maximisation and thus with extending market share. They, therefore, give the people “what they want” and cannot afford to alienate existing or potential viewers/readers by presenting political viewpoints they may disagree with.

Question 40

What limitation is there to this [market model] theory?

Answer 40

The model presents the market mechanism as politically neutral and responsive to the interests of all, thereby ignoring the market power of major corporations and the wealthy in general.

Question 41

In what sense has Television altered the style of election campaigning?

Answer 41

TV caused a rise in celebrity politics, bringing benefit to PMs and other party leaders. Boris Johnson, Corbyn and Farage have become “anti-celebrity” celebrity politicians.

However, the statutory requirement that broadcasters must ensure balance in their coverage of politics limits its impact on voting behaviour.

Question 42

How is the Press different from broadcast media? What evidence is there of partisanship?

Answer 42

Press is blatantly partisan. National papers take an open standpoint of different issues and party politics, often telling readers what they should vote for.

• Most papers back Cons.
• Select few, namely the Guardian and Daily Mirror, back Lab.

Parties can lose paper support and is possible for permanent/non-permanent dealignment.

Question 43

What arguments are there that go against the idea that the press has an effect on voting behaviour?

Answer 43

• “Minimal effect thesis” suggests the press has limited impact on party preferences. Does not question press partisanship but suggests sympathies or preferences, and rarely extends to generating new preferences or changing established ones.
• Much more common for people to choose a newspaper that reflects their political views than for their views to be a product of reading the newspaper itself.
• Press partisanship influences attitudes and behaviour in the long-term after years of exposure to biases, but not in the short-term.

Question 44

What arguments are there in support of the idea that the press has an effect on voting behaviour?

Answer 44

• Press partisanship may have decisive impact on the outcome of election if it has been closely fought. E.g. if people are inclined to choose a newspaper that reflects their pre-existing views, they’re more likely to hold these views more strongly over time if the newspaper they read favours them.
  
  • SO, the existence of a pro-Cons press in UK does matter, as it makes Labs path to power harder than the Cons, unless Lab adopt more Cons policies.