4.2 Demographic Transition Flashcards
What is the demographic transition model?
A model used to assess birth/death rates + therefore population change over a country’s development (time)
What is stage 1 of DTM?
- high fluctuating
- a period of high birth rate + high death rate - both fluctuating
- population growth is small
Reasons for high birth rates in stage 1?
- limited birth control/ family planning
- high infant mortality rate - encourages the birth of more children
- children are a future source of income
- cultural reasons - children are a sign of fertility + some religions encourage large families
Reasons for high death rates in stage 1?
- high incidence of disease
- poor nutrition + famine due to no reliable food supply
- poor levels of hygiene
- underdevelopment + inadequate health facilities
What happens in stage 2 of DTM?
- a period of high birth rate
- falling death rate
- population begins to expand rapidly
Reasons for falling death rates in stage 2?
- economic development begins
- improved healthcare
- better nutrition
- lower child mortality
What happens in stage 3 of DTM?
- falling birth rate
- continuing fall in death rate
- population growth slows down
Reasons for falling birth rate in stage 3?
- changing socioeconomic conditions
- lower infant mortality rates
- availability of family planning - often supported by government
- greater access to education for women
- changing social trends + fashions, rise in materialism - preference for smaller families
- compulsory schooling - rearing of children more expensive
What happens in stage 4 of DTM?
- low fluctuating birth rates + death rates
- population growth is small + fertility rate continues to fall
Explanation of stage 4
- significant changes in personal life styles
- emancipation of women - more women in workforce
- more people with high incomes + more leisure interests
What happens in stage 5 of DTM?
- later period during which death rates slightly exceed birth rates
- this causes population decline
- this stage has only been recognised in recent years + only in some Western European countries
Reasons for low birth rates in stage 5?
- rise in individualism - linked to emancipation of women in labour
- greater financial independence for women
- concern about the impact of increased population on resources or future generations
- increase in non-traditional lifestyles - e.g. same sex marriage
- a rise in concept of childlessness
Reason for increase in death rates in stage 5?
May slightly increase because the population is ageing due to increased LE from a better standard of living
Strengths of DTM
- dynamic model + provides us with an understanding of how + why population growth changes over time + the affect of changing birth rates and death rates of population size
- helps understand demographic changes different countries have gone through
- provides us with a base model - demographic changes of many countries can be compared + analysed alongside each other
- helpful to understand pop change in Europe, North America and japan
Limitations of DTM?
- Eurocentric - doesn’t always reflect the situation for countries outside of its sphere - e.g. LICs such as Africa have had high birth rates that stayed higher for longer + therefore have a large base pop
- timescale of transition might differ - technological advancements can make transition quicker - e.g. Hong Kong and Malaysia developed much quicker than early industrialised countries
- some countries have bigger base populations - makes transition slower
- assumption that HICs have lower BRs - Saudi Arabia BR 18.5 due to cultural reasons + low status of women
- doesn’t take into account migration
- doesn’t account for war + conflict
- doesn’t consider impact of pro-natalist or anti-natalist policies
How is war + conflicts a limitation of the DTM?
- in Afghanistan infant mortality rates are high + 1/10 children do not live past the age of 5 - resulting in high BR as people want to have children for insurance
- Afghanistan has a high BR + increasing death rate which means overall the population is increasing
- it also has high illiteracy rates rates + limited education for women - less likely to pursue careers or make informed choices about the number of children they have
How does migration limit the DTM?
- increase in number of economically active people in area may increase BRs
- immigration to the UK has led to an increase in BR
What does stage 1 suggest about a country?
- agricultural societies - larger families are beneficial as there are more people to help with manual labour
- poor access to healthcare + medicine, as well as poor hygiene + poor sanitation - increases death rates, especially among infants + children who are particularly vulnerable
- in societies where death rates are high, BR remain high as the population strives to maintain its size
Examples of countries in stage 1?
- Chad, Burkina Faso
- most countries were at this stage prior to the industrial revolution - most have progressed pass this stage
What does stage 2 suggest about a country?
- improved healthcare + development of modern medicine decreases death rates
- improved education systems, increasing gender equality + improved food supply + sanitation to increase LE
- BR still high because DR need to drop before BR follow - therefore the size of population increases rapidly
Examples of countries in stage 2?
- Guatemala, Nigeria, Afghanistan
- during the Industrial Revolution many countries transitioned in or through this stage
What does stage 3 suggest about a country?
- declining BR due to a number of factors, including emancipation of women + improved access to contraception
- improved education systems also help make women aware of the opportunities available to them outside of their domestic life + help them take control of their own body + health
- countries at this stage have an adequate level of stability, either socially, politically or economically
- stable population growth acts to strengthen economy - significant proportion of pop of working age
Examples of countries in stage 3?
- Botswana, Columbia, India, Jamaica, United Arab Emirates
What does stage 4 suggest about a country?
- countries have strong + stable economies, good healthcare systems + high proportion of working women
- resulting in fertility rate stabilising at around two children per couple
Examples of countries in stage 4
- Canada, Australia, UK, USA, Brazil, South Korea
What does stage 5 suggest about a country?
- BR falling leading to a decline in pop
- in some cases migration makes the transition more complex, as net migration causes pop size to increase
- family size decreases as women focus more on their careers + due to high living costs associated with raising a family
Examples of countries in stage 5
- Germany, Japan, Portugal, Ukraine, Greece
What is the population growth in stage 1?
- BR + DR remain high = population size remains constant
- relatively small
What is the population growth in stage 2?
- rapid decrease of DR + BR still high = size of population increases rapidly
What is the population growth in stage 3?
- BR begin to decrease gradually + DR remain low = size of population continue to increase but the rate of growth is much slower
What is the population growth in stage 4?
- BR low + continuing to decline, DR remain low = population growth stabilises
- population size is large
What is the population growth in stage 5?
- BR falls below DR = decline in population size
Why is Burkina Faso in stage 1?
- has a young population - 65% being less than 25 years old
- only 1/3 of population can read + write, unemployment is wide spread -> weak economy
- 80% of population is employed in subsistence farming, meaning larger family sizes help increase productivity
Why is Afghanistan in stage 2?
- highest child mortality rate in the world - 1/10 children not making it pass the age of 5
- public health has seen much improvement + while infant mortality rates remain high, they have experienced advancements
- Afghanistan’s development is being held back by poor education systems, gender inequality + poor healthcare
Why is India in stage 3?
- in recent decades India has seen significant improvements in infant + child mortality rates as health + maternal care has improved
- the under 5 mortality rate remains higher for girls than for boys, implying there is still are problems of female neglect in the country
- strong family planning policies, including increased use of contraception + female sterilisation, has seen BR decrease steadily since the 1970s
Why is the UK in stage 4?
- population continues to increase gradually - but it is also ageing as a the proportion of elderly people outweighs the number of young people
- however healthcare services are good + have enabled LE to increase to 82 for women + 79 for men
- size of pop is growing by more than 250,000 people a year as a result of migration alone
Why is Germany in stage 5?
- birth rate is currently lower than death rate - meaning the population is in decline
- it has been like this for the past 40 years
- however, the effect of migration has skewed the resulting rate of natural increase
- Germany has a strong economy, established education + healthcare systems
- there is also good gender equality, with 95% of women in the country employed outside of the home
Why was the Berelson model created?
- there are fundamental differences between population growth in HICs and LICs
- BR + DR in stage 1 are higher in LICs than in HICs
- stage 2 takes a much shorter time than it took HICs
- it could be argued zambia has moved through stage 1 and stage 2 of the DTM, with there also being a decline in BR which is a characteristic of stage 3
What does Berelson suggest in his model?
- there are 3 clear stages rather than 4 (5 didn’t exist then)
- LICs fall into two categories- type A + type B
Difference between type A and type B countries?
- type A are those that have experienced economic development + have seen a fall in their BR together with a decline in the DR in stage 3
- type B (typically low income LICs) e.g. Zambia - maintained a high BR with a DR that is levelling off albeit at a higher rate than type A countries
What is happening to type B countries?
- observation of mortality rate statistics in some countries suggest that DR are starting to increase - the AIDS epidemic + worsening poverty is taking its toll
- therefore BR are likely to increase in the future, delaying the LICs progress through the DTM stages
How are population pyramids made?
- population is divided into 5 year age groups on the vertical scale + male/female on horizontal
- number of each group = % of total migration (shown by horizontal bars)
What do population pyramids show the effects of?
- migration
- age/sex of immigrants
- wars/diseases
What does stage 1 of DTM look like on a population pyramids?
- wide base - high birth rates
- rapid fall in each upwards age group due to high death rates - narrowing apex
- low LE
What does stage 2 DTM look like on population pyramids?
- wide base but getting narrower - still high BR
- fall in death rates as more living in middle age - apex widening slightly
- slightly longer LE - wider middle
- indentation not has prominent
What does stage 3 DTM look like on population pyramids?
- convex profile
- declining birth rate - smaller base
- more people living to an older age - widening apex
What does stage 4 DTM look like on population pyramids?
- convex profile
- low birth rate - narrow base
- bulge from 25-40
- high dependency ratio -wide apex
- longer LE
What does stage 5 DTM look like on population pyramids?
- very low birth rate - narrowest base
- low death rate - wide apex
- ageing population
How can populations be divided?
- economically active (working age) - aged 16-65 yrs
- non-economically active - aged under 16 + over 65
- ‘working age’ varies from country to country (especially LEDCs)
How to calculate dependency ratio
Non-economically active/ economically active x 100
Variations of gender composition
- the number of women over 75 in the uk is double the number of men
- there tends to be more men born in the UK (105:100), although this varies from country to country
- in SE Asia it is estimated that there are 70 million women missing - this may be a consequence of female infanticide in countries where the social standing of women is low
- migration also affects male:female ratios - there are more men than women aged 20to 35 in the Turkish immigrant population of Germany
Occupational structure of population pyramids
- this refers to the size + sex of working population
- in differences arise in the levels of female education + employment - male employment typically ranges from 50%-70% compared to 1%-50% for females
- in Muslim countries, very few women have paid work
Ethnic composition of population pyramids
- in Britain - Irish, black Caribbean and various Asian communities represent the main ethnic minority groups
- Britain is becoming a multi-racial society, especially in younger age groups
- 20% of the white population is under 15, compared to 30% in ethnic minorities
What are the differences in population structures of LEDCs and MEDCs?
- LEDCs have a wider base due to higher birth rates, in comparison to MEDCs which have a narrower base + low birth rates
- MEDCs have a wider apex due to greater LE, contrasting the narrow apex of LEDCs as they have a lower LE
Facts about Japan’s ageing population
- LE 83 years
- 50,000 centurions live in japan
- elderly accounted for 23% of population (2010) to 38% (2050)
Social impacts of japan’s ageing population
- ageing population + shrinking fertility rate leading to a decline in population (natural decrease)
- increased pressure on hospitals - elderly diseases e.g. dementia increasing, shelters for elderly needed as they can only stay in hospital for 3 months
- 3.8 million elderly live on their own as to not burden their children - many lone elderly die + aren’t found for weeks
- lot of psychological trauma for people looking after elderly relatives, causing social + mental pressures especially since some are already retired themselves
Economic consequences of elderly population
- working 9 to 1 retirees 1965, working 2 to 1 retirees nowadays
- raising taxes + age of retirement
- govt. spend 25% of budget on social security for elderly
- 3rd largest economy currently but working population is disappearing - this means tax payers are decreasing + the fiscal situation is under serious pressure
How is japan combatting its ageing population using technology?
- embracing new technology which support the elderly - e.g. partner robots, adult nappies, remote support from relatives
- 1 million industrial robots could assist the Japanese
- robots however have limitations - technical issues or lack of human touch
How else is japan combatting its ageing population?
- boosting immigration could be a solution to demographic decline - hospitals have strict language tests which many overseas workers fail to
- increasing consumption tax by 5% - increase to 10% by 2050 to pay for social security system
- increased retirement age to 70 - most are fit + healthy and are happy for retirement age to increase
What is development?
- development occurs when there are improvements to individual factors making up quality of life e.g. development occurs in a low income country when..
- local food supply improves due to investment in farm machinery + fertilisers
- electricity grid extends outwards from the main urban area to rural areas
- levels of literacy improve throughout the country
Why does physical geography cause development to vary?
- landlocked countries develop more slowly than coastal ones
- small island countries face disadvantages in development
- access to high value natural resources e.g. oil, minerals
Why do economies cause development to vary?
- open economies that encourage foreign direct investment develop faster then closed economies
- good, stable governance with no corruption = money is spent well for development
Why does demography cause development to vary?
- countries with control of BR are able to provide sufficient resources
- e.g. all children have access to education
How does HDI measure development?
Combines indicators of:
- life expectancy at birth
- educational attainment (mean years of schooling for adults/expected years of schooling for children of entering age)
- GNI per person (PPP)
What is the link between high levels of development + low IMR/falling BR?
As economic development increases infant mortality rates fall, caused by:
- greater wealth to invest in healthcare - more medicines, pre + post birth
- higher female education so mothers more aware of best approaches to childcare
- improved diets - less malnutrition
- better housing - improved sanitation, water supply etc.
- few epidemics, pests etc.
- improved transport - healthcare can reach remote areas
How is high LE linked to high levels of development?
- stable food supply + better nutrition as economy develops
- high incomes giving more choice to improve lifestyle + health
- better working conditions e.g. manual labour replaced by mechanisation
- taxation able to cover costs of public services + healthcare
- reduction in infant mortality as more wealth is created
How is LE linked to low levels of development?
- few resources for the govt.
- issues related to poor food supply + limited access to food
- high rates of infant mortality (due to disease, poor sanitation)
- limited access to medical infrastructure/healthcare
- lack of resources to control or treat diseases
- limited provisions for pensions/social security = poverty
What country has a youthful pop?
Gambia
Why are there so many young people in Gambia?
- muslim pop = young women don’t have a say in how many children they have
- rural = children seen as economic assets to work on family farm
- 73/1000 infant mortality rate = increase BR to compensate
What is the dependency ration in Gambia?
92.3%
What are the impacts of a large youthful pop?
poverty
- govt. doesn’t have the money to build infrastructure
- electricity is very expensive + toilet is hole in the ground
- people can’t afford to feed all their kids
Education
- one school has 3000 pupils
- have to do two shift days = teachers work more than 12 hours a day
How are Gambian authorities trying to lower BR?
- price of contraception subsidised = everyone can afford it
- mobile clinics = bring products to people in isolated in remote villages = bigger success rate
- 1983 natural pop growth = 4.2% —> 2008 = below 3%
How can improving the health for children + women reduce BR in Gambia?
- 1/10 children die before they are five
- free vaccinations for measles + yellow fever = reduced infant mortality
- private female clinics = encourage women to space out births + female mental health/councelling
Positive economic impacts of an ageing population?
- over 65s have a net contribution of over £40 billion per annum for the care they provide for grandchildren, spending + volunteering
- retirees also often have a greater disposable income = help businesses + flushed back into economy
Ageing pop in Christchurch
- 30% of pop pensioners - due to high inmigration of 45-64 year olds + out migration of 15-29
- higher DR = 11.8, than BR = 9.2
- increasing pressure on govt. to provide nursing homes + care
