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Population > 4.2 Demographic Transition > Flashcards

4.2 Demographic Transition Flashcards

1
Q

What is the demographic transition model?

A

A model used to assess birth/death rates + therefore population change over a country’s development (time)

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2
Q

What is stage 1 of DTM?

A
  • high fluctuating
  • a period of high birth rate + high death rate - both fluctuating
  • population growth is small
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3
Q

Reasons for high birth rates in stage 1?

A
  • limited birth control/ family planning
  • high infant mortality rate - encourages the birth of more children
  • children are a future source of income
  • cultural reasons - children are a sign of fertility + some religions encourage large families
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4
Q

Reasons for high death rates in stage 1?

A
  • high incidence of disease
  • poor nutrition + famine due to no reliable food supply
  • poor levels of hygiene
  • underdevelopment + inadequate health facilities
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5
Q

What happens in stage 2 of DTM?

A
  • a period of high birth rate
  • falling death rate
  • population begins to expand rapidly
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6
Q

Reasons for falling death rates in stage 2?

A
  • economic development begins
  • improved healthcare
  • better nutrition
  • lower child mortality
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7
Q

What happens in stage 3 of DTM?

A
  • falling birth rate
  • continuing fall in death rate
  • population growth slows down
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8
Q

Reasons for falling birth rate in stage 3?

A
  • changing socioeconomic conditions
  • lower infant mortality rates
  • availability of family planning - often supported by government
  • greater access to education for women
  • changing social trends + fashions, rise in materialism - preference for smaller families
  • compulsory schooling - rearing of children more expensive
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9
Q

What happens in stage 4 of DTM?

A
  • low fluctuating birth rates + death rates
  • population growth is small + fertility rate continues to fall
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10
Q

Explanation of stage 4

A
  • significant changes in personal life styles
  • emancipation of women - more women in workforce
  • more people with high incomes + more leisure interests
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11
Q

What happens in stage 5 of DTM?

A
  • later period during which death rates slightly exceed birth rates
  • this causes population decline
  • this stage has only been recognised in recent years + only in some Western European countries
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12
Q

Reasons for low birth rates in stage 5?

A
  • rise in individualism - linked to emancipation of women in labour
  • greater financial independence for women
  • concern about the impact of increased population on resources or future generations
  • increase in non-traditional lifestyles - e.g. same sex marriage
  • a rise in concept of childlessness
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13
Q

Reason for increase in death rates in stage 5?

A

May slightly increase because the population is ageing due to increased LE from a better standard of living

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14
Q

Strengths of DTM

A
  • dynamic model + provides us with an understanding of how + why population growth changes over time + the affect of changing birth rates and death rates of population size
  • helps understand demographic changes different countries have gone through
  • provides us with a base model - demographic changes of many countries can be compared + analysed alongside each other
  • helpful to understand pop change in Europe, North America and japan
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15
Q

Limitations of DTM?

A
  • Eurocentric - doesn’t always reflect the situation for countries outside of its sphere - e.g. LICs such as Africa have had high birth rates that stayed higher for longer + therefore have a large base pop
  • timescale of transition might differ - technological advancements can make transition quicker - e.g. Hong Kong and Malaysia developed much quicker than early industrialised countries
  • some countries have bigger base populations - makes transition slower
  • assumption that HICs have lower BRs - Saudi Arabia BR 18.5 due to cultural reasons + low status of women
  • doesn’t take into account migration
  • doesn’t account for war + conflict
  • doesn’t consider impact of pro-natalist or anti-natalist policies
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16
Q

How is war + conflicts a limitation of the DTM?

A
  • in Afghanistan infant mortality rates are high + 1/10 children do not live past the age of 5 - resulting in high BR as people want to have children for insurance
  • Afghanistan has a high BR + increasing death rate which means overall the population is increasing
  • it also has high illiteracy rates rates + limited education for women - less likely to pursue careers or make informed choices about the number of children they have
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17
Q

How does migration limit the DTM?

A
  • increase in number of economically active people in area may increase BRs
  • immigration to the UK has led to an increase in BR
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18
Q

What does stage 1 suggest about a country?

A
  • agricultural societies - larger families are beneficial as there are more people to help with manual labour
  • poor access to healthcare + medicine, as well as poor hygiene + poor sanitation - increases death rates, especially among infants + children who are particularly vulnerable
  • in societies where death rates are high, BR remain high as the population strives to maintain its size
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19
Q

Examples of countries in stage 1?

A
  • Chad, Burkina Faso
  • most countries were at this stage prior to the industrial revolution - most have progressed pass this stage
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20
Q

What does stage 2 suggest about a country?

A
  • improved healthcare + development of modern medicine decreases death rates
  • improved education systems, increasing gender equality + improved food supply + sanitation to increase LE
  • BR still high because DR need to drop before BR follow - therefore the size of population increases rapidly
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21
Q

Examples of countries in stage 2?

A
  • Guatemala, Nigeria, Afghanistan
  • during the Industrial Revolution many countries transitioned in or through this stage
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22
Q

What does stage 3 suggest about a country?

A
  • declining BR due to a number of factors, including emancipation of women + improved access to contraception
  • improved education systems also help make women aware of the opportunities available to them outside of their domestic life + help them take control of their own body + health
  • countries at this stage have an adequate level of stability, either socially, politically or economically
  • stable population growth acts to strengthen economy - significant proportion of pop of working age
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23
Q

Examples of countries in stage 3?

A
  • Botswana, Columbia, India, Jamaica, United Arab Emirates
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24
Q

What does stage 4 suggest about a country?

A
  • countries have strong + stable economies, good healthcare systems + high proportion of working women
  • resulting in fertility rate stabilising at around two children per couple
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25
Q

Examples of countries in stage 4

A
  • Canada, Australia, UK, USA, Brazil, South Korea
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26
Q

What does stage 5 suggest about a country?

A
  • BR falling leading to a decline in pop
  • in some cases migration makes the transition more complex, as net migration causes pop size to increase
  • family size decreases as women focus more on their careers + due to high living costs associated with raising a family
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27
Q

Examples of countries in stage 5

A
  • Germany, Japan, Portugal, Ukraine, Greece
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28
Q

What is the population growth in stage 1?

A
  • BR + DR remain high = population size remains constant
  • relatively small
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29
Q

What is the population growth in stage 2?

A
  • rapid decrease of DR + BR still high = size of population increases rapidly
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30
Q

What is the population growth in stage 3?

A
  • BR begin to decrease gradually + DR remain low = size of population continue to increase but the rate of growth is much slower
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31
Q

What is the population growth in stage 4?

A
  • BR low + continuing to decline, DR remain low = population growth stabilises
  • population size is large
32
Q

What is the population growth in stage 5?

A
  • BR falls below DR = decline in population size
33
Q

Why is Burkina Faso in stage 1?

A
  • has a young population - 65% being less than 25 years old
  • only 1/3 of population can read + write, unemployment is wide spread -> weak economy
  • 80% of population is employed in subsistence farming, meaning larger family sizes help increase productivity
34
Q

Why is Afghanistan in stage 2?

A
  • highest child mortality rate in the world - 1/10 children not making it pass the age of 5
  • public health has seen much improvement + while infant mortality rates remain high, they have experienced advancements
  • Afghanistan’s development is being held back by poor education systems, gender inequality + poor healthcare
35
Q

Why is India in stage 3?

A
  • in recent decades India has seen significant improvements in infant + child mortality rates as health + maternal care has improved
  • the under 5 mortality rate remains higher for girls than for boys, implying there is still are problems of female neglect in the country
  • strong family planning policies, including increased use of contraception + female sterilisation, has seen BR decrease steadily since the 1970s
36
Q

Why is the UK in stage 4?

A
  • population continues to increase gradually - but it is also ageing as a the proportion of elderly people outweighs the number of young people
  • however healthcare services are good + have enabled LE to increase to 82 for women + 79 for men
  • size of pop is growing by more than 250,000 people a year as a result of migration alone
37
Q

Why is Germany in stage 5?

A
  • birth rate is currently lower than death rate - meaning the population is in decline
  • it has been like this for the past 40 years
  • however, the effect of migration has skewed the resulting rate of natural increase
  • Germany has a strong economy, established education + healthcare systems
  • there is also good gender equality, with 95% of women in the country employed outside of the home
38
Q

Why was the Berelson model created?

A
  • there are fundamental differences between population growth in HICs and LICs
  • BR + DR in stage 1 are higher in LICs than in HICs
  • stage 2 takes a much shorter time than it took HICs
  • it could be argued zambia has moved through stage 1 and stage 2 of the DTM, with there also being a decline in BR which is a characteristic of stage 3
39
Q

What does Berelson suggest in his model?

A
  • there are 3 clear stages rather than 4 (5 didn’t exist then)
  • LICs fall into two categories- type A + type B
40
Q

Difference between type A and type B countries?

A
  • type A are those that have experienced economic development + have seen a fall in their BR together with a decline in the DR in stage 3
  • type B (typically low income LICs) e.g. Zambia - maintained a high BR with a DR that is levelling off albeit at a higher rate than type A countries
41
Q

What is happening to type B countries?

A
  • observation of mortality rate statistics in some countries suggest that DR are starting to increase - the AIDS epidemic + worsening poverty is taking its toll
  • therefore BR are likely to increase in the future, delaying the LICs progress through the DTM stages
42
Q

How are population pyramids made?

A
  • population is divided into 5 year age groups on the vertical scale + male/female on horizontal
  • number of each group = % of total migration (shown by horizontal bars)
43
Q

What do population pyramids show the effects of?

A
  • migration
  • age/sex of immigrants
  • wars/diseases
44
Q

What does stage 1 of DTM look like on a population pyramids?

A
  • wide base - high birth rates
  • rapid fall in each upwards age group due to high death rates - narrowing apex
  • low LE
45
Q

What does stage 2 DTM look like on population pyramids?

A
  • wide base but getting narrower - still high BR
  • fall in death rates as more living in middle age - apex widening slightly
  • slightly longer LE - wider middle
  • indentation not has prominent
46
Q

What does stage 3 DTM look like on population pyramids?

A
  • convex profile
  • declining birth rate - smaller base
  • more people living to an older age - widening apex
47
Q

What does stage 4 DTM look like on population pyramids?

A
  • convex profile
  • low birth rate - narrow base
  • bulge from 25-40
  • high dependency ratio -wide apex
  • longer LE
48
Q

What does stage 5 DTM look like on population pyramids?

A
  • very low birth rate - narrowest base
  • low death rate - wide apex
  • ageing population
49
Q

How can populations be divided?

A
  • economically active (working age) - aged 16-65 yrs
  • non-economically active - aged under 16 + over 65
  • ‘working age’ varies from country to country (especially LEDCs)
50
Q

How to calculate dependency ratio

A

Non-economically active/ economically active x 100

51
Q

Variations of gender composition

A
  • the number of women over 75 in the uk is double the number of men
  • there tends to be more men born in the UK (105:100), although this varies from country to country
  • in SE Asia it is estimated that there are 70 million women missing - this may be a consequence of female infanticide in countries where the social standing of women is low
  • migration also affects male:female ratios - there are more men than women aged 20to 35 in the Turkish immigrant population of Germany
52
Q

Occupational structure of population pyramids

A
  • this refers to the size + sex of working population
  • in differences arise in the levels of female education + employment - male employment typically ranges from 50%-70% compared to 1%-50% for females
  • in Muslim countries, very few women have paid work
53
Q

Ethnic composition of population pyramids

A
  • in Britain - Irish, black Caribbean and various Asian communities represent the main ethnic minority groups
  • Britain is becoming a multi-racial society, especially in younger age groups
  • 20% of the white population is under 15, compared to 30% in ethnic minorities
54
Q

What are the differences in population structures of LEDCs and MEDCs?

A
  • LEDCs have a wider base due to higher birth rates, in comparison to MEDCs which have a narrower base + low birth rates
  • MEDCs have a wider apex due to greater LE, contrasting the narrow apex of LEDCs as they have a lower LE
55
Q

Facts about Japan’s ageing population

A
  • LE 83 years
  • 50,000 centurions live in japan
  • elderly accounted for 23% of population (2010) to 38% (2050)
56
Q

Social impacts of japan’s ageing population

A
  • ageing population + shrinking fertility rate leading to a decline in population (natural decrease)
  • increased pressure on hospitals - elderly diseases e.g. dementia increasing, shelters for elderly needed as they can only stay in hospital for 3 months
  • 3.8 million elderly live on their own as to not burden their children - many lone elderly die + aren’t found for weeks
  • lot of psychological trauma for people looking after elderly relatives, causing social + mental pressures especially since some are already retired themselves
57
Q

Economic consequences of elderly population

A
  • working 9 to 1 retirees 1965, working 2 to 1 retirees nowadays
  • raising taxes + age of retirement
  • govt. spend 25% of budget on social security for elderly
  • 3rd largest economy currently but working population is disappearing - this means tax payers are decreasing + the fiscal situation is under serious pressure
58
Q

How is japan combatting its ageing population using technology?

A
  • embracing new technology which support the elderly - e.g. partner robots, adult nappies, remote support from relatives
  • 1 million industrial robots could assist the Japanese
  • robots however have limitations - technical issues or lack of human touch
59
Q

How else is japan combatting its ageing population?

A
  • boosting immigration could be a solution to demographic decline - hospitals have strict language tests which many overseas workers fail to
  • increasing consumption tax by 5% - increase to 10% by 2050 to pay for social security system
  • increased retirement age to 70 - most are fit + healthy and are happy for retirement age to increase
60
Q

What is development?

A
  • development occurs when there are improvements to individual factors making up quality of life e.g. development occurs in a low income country when..
  • local food supply improves due to investment in farm machinery + fertilisers
  • electricity grid extends outwards from the main urban area to rural areas
  • levels of literacy improve throughout the country
61
Q

Why does physical geography cause development to vary?

A
  • landlocked countries develop more slowly than coastal ones
  • small island countries face disadvantages in development
  • access to high value natural resources e.g. oil, minerals
62
Q

Why do economies cause development to vary?

A
  • open economies that encourage foreign direct investment develop faster then closed economies
  • good, stable governance with no corruption = money is spent well for development
63
Q

Why does demography cause development to vary?

A
  • countries with control of BR are able to provide sufficient resources
  • e.g. all children have access to education
64
Q

How does HDI measure development?

A

Combines indicators of:
- life expectancy at birth
- educational attainment (mean years of schooling for adults/expected years of schooling for children of entering age)
- GNI per person (PPP)

65
Q

What is the link between high levels of development + low IMR/falling BR?

A

As economic development increases infant mortality rates fall, caused by:
- greater wealth to invest in healthcare - more medicines, pre + post birth
- higher female education so mothers more aware of best approaches to childcare
- improved diets - less malnutrition
- better housing - improved sanitation, water supply etc.
- few epidemics, pests etc.
- improved transport - healthcare can reach remote areas

66
Q

How is high LE linked to high levels of development?

A
  • stable food supply + better nutrition as economy develops
  • high incomes giving more choice to improve lifestyle + health
  • better working conditions e.g. manual labour replaced by mechanisation
  • taxation able to cover costs of public services + healthcare
  • reduction in infant mortality as more wealth is created
67
Q

How is LE linked to low levels of development?

A
  • few resources for the govt.
  • issues related to poor food supply + limited access to food
  • high rates of infant mortality (due to disease, poor sanitation)
  • limited access to medical infrastructure/healthcare
  • lack of resources to control or treat diseases
  • limited provisions for pensions/social security = poverty
68
Q

What country has a youthful pop?

A

Gambia

69
Q

Why are there so many young people in Gambia?

A
  • muslim pop = young women don’t have a say in how many children they have
  • rural = children seen as economic assets to work on family farm
  • 73/1000 infant mortality rate = increase BR to compensate
70
Q

What is the dependency ration in Gambia?

A

92.3%

71
Q

What are the impacts of a large youthful pop?

A

poverty
- govt. doesn’t have the money to build infrastructure
- electricity is very expensive + toilet is hole in the ground
- people can’t afford to feed all their kids
Education
- one school has 3000 pupils
- have to do two shift days = teachers work more than 12 hours a day

72
Q

How are Gambian authorities trying to lower BR?

A
  • price of contraception subsidised = everyone can afford it
  • mobile clinics = bring products to people in isolated in remote villages = bigger success rate
  • 1983 natural pop growth = 4.2% —> 2008 = below 3%
73
Q

How can improving the health for children + women reduce BR in Gambia?

A
  • 1/10 children die before they are five
  • free vaccinations for measles + yellow fever = reduced infant mortality
  • private female clinics = encourage women to space out births + female mental health/councelling
74
Q

Positive economic impacts of an ageing population?

A
  • over 65s have a net contribution of over £40 billion per annum for the care they provide for grandchildren, spending + volunteering
  • retirees also often have a greater disposable income = help businesses + flushed back into economy
75
Q

Ageing pop in Christchurch

A
  • 30% of pop pensioners - due to high inmigration of 45-64 year olds + out migration of 15-29
  • higher DR = 11.8, than BR = 9.2
  • increasing pressure on govt. to provide nursing homes + care

Population (5 decks)

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