4.1-voter behavior Flashcards
in the 1997 general election what was the swing in votes to labour from women vs from men? what are the possible reasons for this?
- 10 % for women
- 8% for men
reasons:
- increase in working women
- the advantage thatcher had with women reduced
what percent of black and asian voters, voted for labour in 1997?
82% of black voters
66% of asian voters
what % of 18-24 year olds voted labour in 1997 and how does this compare to 65+?
- 49% of 18-24
- 41% of 65+
what % of the DE class voted labour in 1997 compared to the ABC1 class
- 48% of the DE class
- 18% of the ABC1
what was the context behind the 1997 election
- black wednesday
- begining of new labour (revised clause 4)
- blair endoresed by the sun
- divides within the conservative party over membership of the european single currency
- labour placed a focus on electing female MPSs
what was the context behind the 1979 general election?
- callaghan seen to be indifferent to the ‘winter of discontent’ (sun ran the ‘crisis? what crisis headline)
- margaret thatcher was presented as the ‘iron lady’
- SNP called a vote of no confidence against callaghan due to refusing to implement devolution
what was the difference in conservative vote share in 18-34 year olds and in 55+in 1979?
- 42% of 18-24 year olds voter conservative
- 47% of 55+
what percent of men compared to women voted labour in the 1979 general election
- 40% of men
- 35% of women
what persent of DE voted conservative compared to ABC1 in 1979
- 34% of DE voters
- 59% of ABC1 voters
what was the conservative campaign characterised by in 2019
- boris johnsons ‘get brexit done’
- pledges net 0 by 2050
- Limited increases in NHS spending
what was the 2019 labour campaign shaped by?
- windfall tax on oil companies
- significant increases in spending to 45% of GDP
- corbyn was unpopular amoung red-wall seats
- labour stuggled to deal with issues of antisemitism
- 80% of spending went to seats labour hoped to win rather than could actually win
what was singificant about the results of the 2019 election?
- lost 45 redwall seats
- lost 18 seats it had held since the post war period
what was the lead conservatives had over leave voters in 2019 ?
15-73% lead
what persent of 18-24 year olds voted conservative in 2019 compared to 65+
- 19% of 18-24 year olds
- 64% of people ages 65+
amoung DE voters what persent voted conservative in 2019 compared to AB voters?
- 41% of DE voters
- 45% of AB voters
what % of individuals with no qualifications voted conservative in 2019 compared to individuals with degrees/ higher education?
- 59% of people with no qualificatios voted conservative
- 34% of individuals with a degree/ higher EDU voted conservative
why is the change in voter behavior in the 2019 general election significant?
- suggests class dealignment
- strong age group divide
- issues such as brexit resulted in changes in class behavior.
in the brexit referendum what % of 18-24 year olds voted to leave and how does this compare to 65+?
- 29% of 18-24
- 64% of 65+
why is there a link between class and voting?
- Conservatives traditionally favours low tax policies and reduced welfare
- labour is associated with redistribution and the implementation of the NHS
What % of the electorate is estimated to vote in line with their social class?
40%
What are the short-term factors that may influence voter behaviour?
- party leader
- single-issue voting (e.g. Scotland with independence or votes for the Brexit party)
- manifesto policies
- external factor e.g financial crash 2008
how did DE vs AB voters vote in the 2016 EU referendum?
- 64% of DE voters voted to leave the EU
- 41% of AB voters voted to leave the EU
how many men compared to women voted labour in 2019?
- 31% men
- 35% women
what % of women aged 18-24 and men aged 18-24 voted labour in 2019?
- 46% of men aged 18-24
- 65% of women aged 18-24
- the gender gap between men and women is more significant when compounded with age
- the gap between genders decreases with age : older men and women increasingly vote the same
what is the bandwagon effect in opinion polling?
- when voters vote for the party they think is going to win
what is the underdog effect in opinion polling?
- when voters vote for a minority party lacking support because they feel bad for them
give a stat that suggests changing party loyalty.
in the 1960s half of voters said they idntified with one political party
now only 10% say they identify with one political party
what was a large policy failure in 2017?
- dementia tax: older people had to sell their homes to pay for social care
- got rid of the tripple lock on pensions- got rid of the 2.5% protection
targets core conservative party demographics
how has party membership changed (overall)?
- in 1983, over 65% were party members
- in 2022 1.5% of the electorate were party members
