4. Voting behaviour and the media Flashcards
What is a manifesto?
In a general election, in a document each party launches a list of policies that will be introduced if they’re introduced to government
What is Mandate?
The authority to govern which a government derives from an election victory
What are the three key general elections from 1970-2010
- 1979 general election
- 1997 general election
- 2010 general election
What did the 1979 general election initiate?
- 18 years of Conservative rule, under Margaret Thatcher up to 1990 and then under John Major to 1997
- Seen as bringing to an end years of post-wars consensus
Why was the 1979 general election called?
After James Callaghan’s minority Labour government lost a vote of no confidence in the HofCs (most recent time that had happened)
What was Thatcher’s and John Majors initial majority from the 1979 general election onwards?
- Thatchers was modest, but it increased in 1983 and 1987
- John Major clung to power in the 1992 election
What did the 1979 general election make the Labour Party lead to?
Labour descended into a prolonged period of left-right infighting over policy until the reinvention of the party under Tony Blair enabled it to return to power in 1997
What was the turnout of the 1979 general election?
- Conservative win
- 76% turnout
- 43 majority size
What did the 1997 general election lead to?
The landslide victory of New Labour, which removed John Major’s Conservatives from office and opened the way to 13 years of Labour government
Who became PM at the 1997 general election and how long were their run?
Tony Blair was PM until 2007 when he was succeeded by Gordon Brown
What was the result of the 1997 general election relating to another political party?
Libdems emerged as a significant third force at Westminster
What happened to the Conservatives after the loss at the 1997 general election?
- They were troubled by ongoing divisions, poor leadership and an inability to appear relevant to contemporary society
- They were unable to dislodge Labour from power in the next two elections (2001 and 2005)
What was the turnout of the 1997 general election?
- Labour win
- 71.4% turnout
- 179 Majority size
What was the result of the 2010 general election?
- Saw Gordon Brown removed from office, ending the New Labour era
- Conservative dislodged Labour and David Cameron became PM
What impact did the 2010 general election have on the Conservatives?
- David Camerons Conservatives increased their share of seats, benefiting from 4 years of efforts at modernisation under their new leader
- Cameron won a slender Conservative majority in the 2015 general election
What did the Conservatives have to do for the first time since 1945 after the 2010 general election?
- As they didn’t gain an independent majority, they had to form a coalition with the Lib dems
- Against predictions, the coalition survived a full term, partly due to the Fixed Term Parliament Act on which the Lib dems insisted
What was the turnout of the 2010 general election?
- Conservative win
- 65.1% turnout
- The size of the majority was none following the election; the Conservative-Lib dem coalition that was formed afterwards had a majority of 77
What are some factors that explain the outcome of different electoral contests?
- The impact of party policies
- The manifesto
- The techniques that parties use in their election campaigns, and etc.
How does ‘party policies and manifestos’ explain the outcome of the 1979 general election?
- Both the Labour and Conservative manifestos were notable for their moderation
- Both gave high priority to bringing inflation down
- Callaghan came from Labour’s traditional centre-right and he resisted pressure for more extreme proposals from his party’s left wing
- Thatcher’s policy statement contained very little indication that she intended to move her party to the right
How does ‘the election campaign’ explain the outcome of the 1979 general election?
- The Conservatives adopted many of the techniques of modern advertising
- The Labour campaign lacked awareness of the finer points of presentation, whereas Thatcher proved amenndable to her advisers’ invention of photo opportunities
- Although the Conservatives outpaced Labour in the opinion polls, when voters were asked who would make the better prime minister, Callaghan was 20 points ahead of Thatcher on average
- In spite of Callaghan’s mistakes, voters still respected his air of experience
How does ‘the wider political context’ explain the outcome of the 1979 general election?
- Weakness of Labour government led to Thatcher’s victory
- Despite Callaghan’s popularity and economic signs, Conservative win was expected
- Callaghan’s inability to control military trade unions gave Conservatives an advantage
- ‘Crisis? What crisis?’ - Callaghan’s dismissive response created a powerful Conservative theme
- An Election was triggered by withdrawal of nationalist support after Scottish and Welsh devolution referendums
How does ‘party policies and manifestos’ explain the outcome of the 1997 general election?
- ‘New Labour’ propelled modernisation and balanced traditional policies, avoiding alienating middle-class voters.
- Blair prioritised law and order, reassuring voters amid rising crime rates, and emphasised ties to the business community.
- Labour gained support from influential press like The Sun and Times
- Blair’s emphasis on constitutional reform found common ground with the Liberal Democrats, enabling tactical voting in marginal seats and potentially adding 30 seats to Labour’s majority.
How does ‘the election campaign’ explain the outcome of the 1997 general election?
- New Labour placed a emphasis on developing a professional vote-winning machine and it employed public-relations experts to handle the media, used focus group to assess public opinion and systematically targeted marginal seats rather than safe seats (the importance of the strategy shouldn’t be exaggerated)
- Labours share of the vote increased on average by 12.5% in its target seats, but by 13.4% in constituencies that it neglected (their lead in the opinion polls declined over the campaign)
How does ‘the wider political context’ explain the outcome of the 1997 general election (labour win)?
- Conservative self-inflicted damage post-1992 election was crucial
- The pivotal failures of John Major’s government
- No ‘feel good factor’ as recovery didn’t translate into tax cuts or increased public service investment.
- Monthly polls consistently favored Labour over Conservatives from autumn 1992 onward.
- Conservatives lost their reputation as efficient economic managers and couldn’t regain it.
- ‘Sleaze’ scandals, EU disputes, and weak leadership confirmed the image of Tory incompetence.
How does ‘party policies and manifestos’ explain the outcome of the 2010 general election?
- Little distinction among the three main parties on key election issues
- All three parties pledged savings without compromising essential public services.
- Varied stances on the timing and extent of public spending cuts.
- Conservatives advocated immediate cuts; rivals argued for a gradual phase-in to protect the fragile economic recovery.
- Since 2008, Cameron’s team targeted Labour’s alleged economic mismanagement, emphasising overspending and ineffective banking regulation. This resonated with voters; in one poll, 59% believed Labour’s extra spending was wasted.
How does ‘the election campaign’ explain the outcome of the 2010 general election?
- Conservatives intensely targeted marginal seats early in the 2005-10 parliament, testing policies and emphasising support for vital public services. Despite efforts, they fell 20 seats short of a majority.
- Labour emphasised Gordon Brown’s unscripted encounter with a voter in Rochdale where he called her a ‘bigoted woman.’ The incident, though media-seized, had limited significance as Labour still held Rochdale, and Brown was already trailing in polls.
- The 2010 campaign featured televised debates with the three main party leaders, a notable innovation.
- Brown, perceived as wooden, gained criticism for frequently saying ‘I agree with Nick’ during debates
How does ‘the wider political context’ explain the outcome of the 2010 general election?
- Gordon Brown’s choice of election date impacted his outcome. His decision against an autumn election led to ridicule, damaging his reputation.
- Despite emergency action during the financial crisis, Brown received little political credit and faced media criticism.
- Media portrayed Brown as an insecure, ‘cantankerous workaholic’ with an unclear vision for the country
Before 1970 how were British voters influenced on who they would vote for?
Their social class background
Before 1970, generally who did working class people vote for in elections and why?
- Labour
- Linked to the trade union movement and looked after the interests of those who worked in the traditional heavy industries of coal, steel, textiles and shipbuilding
Before 1970, generally who did the middle class people vote for in elections and why?
- Conservative
- ‘Class voting’
- In the final third of the 20th century, class began to lose its importance as a determinant of voting behaviour ‘class dealignment’
What is class voting?
Voting in line with the political party that supposedly best protects and serves the interests of a particular class