4. Economic development Flashcards
How does economic growth/ decline affect democratisation
And economic crisis
- When there is a big economic growth –> people are less inclined to protest
- Mainly affects transition –> change is needed if something does not work
- Smaller effect on stabilisation. (but positive growth stabilizes regimes/ both democratic & autocratic)
- Economic crisis makes transition to democracy more likely, people want to get rid of dictator
- However, crisis can destabilise both autocracies and democracies
- Economic crisis is a regime neutral destabiliser. (can trigger both democratization + democratic backsliding)
- Economic growth for democratic stability, especially important for poor countries with high debt:
countries can’t pay their debt or invest in public services to keep people happy, destabilises regime
How does economic development affect democratisation?
- Distinction between first and other waves.
1st waves: economic development meant democratic transition, nowadays not anymore. - Economic development improves stability of regime: so regime neutral
- When you are richer= you can provide security and public services due to higher income taxes, so citizens are happier.
- In rich countries citizens are more able to hold their rulers accountable because they’re more educated and have an income that is separate from the ruling power. they’re more powerful because they’re more independent from the state.
- Doesn’t always work this way, a lot of authoritarian regimes have a powerful hold over their people.
- poor countries reverse problem. Low development, no security or public services. this is why democracy can’t stabilise here.
- Opposite claims because people are more worried about their survival and not politics, but they’re also very unhappy so they can start to protest.
Modernization theory suggest economic growth leads to democracy, but authoritarian capitalism challenges this.
Economic development helps democratic deepening by strengthening institutions.
Some rich countries remain authoritarian (China, Saudi Arabia)
How does economic inequality affect democratisation?
3 main arguments
- Economic inequality increases stability of Authoritarian regimes.Inequality can increase populism & support for authoritarian leaders
- Economic inequality increases instability in Democratic & Authoritarian regimes.
- Economic Inequality increases economic elite political influence; enabling democratic erosion
Main argument that Economic inequality increases stability of Authoritarian Regimes:
- Societies with small elite + large lower class are easier to dominate –> because lower class is more focused on survival than politics/ protesting.
- Very rich elites may fear distribution effects of democracy, benefit from authoritarian regime.
- They need a relatively autonomous + sizeable middle class to push for democratisation.
Main argument: that economic inequality increases instability in both democratic and authoritarian regimes
- Poorer people see relative deprivation, which causes protest and regime change
- People expect democracy to reduce inequality, if the democracy does not deliver then protest can also break out causes democratic erosion.
Main argument that economic inequality increases Economic elite political influence, enabling democratic erosion
- Increases influence of elites on policy making /campaign funding
- Elites grab power to survive.
Modernisation theory
effect of economic development on probability of democratic transition
- As countries become richer, citizens become more organised/ educated/ independent/ new norms and values causing the middle classes to demand democratic change. There is a threshold above which democratic transitions become more likely.
- Idea of Sequencing: Economic development first, then democratisation will follow.
- Worked in first wave of democratisation; but nowadays Authoritarian Capitalism./ based on western european view on democratisation –> may not hold anymore.
Some countries democratized without prior economic development (e.g., India, Ghana)
Some rich countries remain authoritarian (e.g., UAE, China
Authoritarian Capitalism
effect of ecnomic development on probability of democratic transition
- Countries can be rich and be stable autocracies
- Defies idea of sequencing
- economic development = regime neutral.
Two types of Economies
- Business ownership:
Economy with a few large businesses where the state has a lot of involvement. - a lot of smaller businesses that do not have any central control. Diversification in size + number of businesses.
How does business ownership affect democratisation
- It help to control people, because people working in these businessess will be dependent on state –> autocracy stabiliser.
- Involvement of state in Economy is more likely in agrarian or natural resource based economies, because you have an independent source of income from citizens.
Resource curse
- Economies heavily based on natural resources
- State more strongly involved in business.
- Possibility for State to gain income independent from citizens ( no need for taxes, rule without them)
- Possibility for State elites to enrich themselves at the expense of citizens.
- Motives to sustain Authoritarian regime.
- Countries with Resource curse –> are more likely to be stable authoritarian regimes.
(examples that dont fit this: Norway + Australia)
Relationship between Democracy & Economic growth: Does democracy lead to economic growth?
Mixed evidence:
* Democracies tend to have stable long-term growth
- Autocracies can have fast short-term growth (China) but risk economic crisis.
- Strong institutions matter more than regime type.
What is Authoritarian Capitalism?
- Economic development –> no longer guarantees democratization
- Some authoritarian states embrace market economy but suppress political freedom –> China, Singapore
- Challenges Western assumption that Capitalism = democracy.
How does state control over economy affect democracy?
State-run economies –> reduce economic freedom & political opposition
(venezuela)
Privatization can weaken authoritarian control but can also lead to oligarchy (Russia)
How do economic crises affect Democracy & Autocracy?
Can trigger democratization (economic hardship weakens dictators, e.g., USSR collapse)
Can trigger autocratization (people demand “strong leaders” in crises, e.g., Weimar Germany → Hitler)
Regime survival depends on institutional strength
