3.2.2 Flashcards
Scientific decision making
Based on data
Advantages of scientific decision making
Logical and rational progress- sensible way of tackling decision
Reduces risk of failure and waste
Can review check to enable wider considerations eg, if it aligns with set objective
High influence stakeholders will trust businesses more and will be more likely to agree
Supported by quantifiable evidence
Disadvantages of scientific decision making
slower vs intuitive decision making
data may be too expensive to collect
expensive as more time and labour produced
data may be unreliable, incorrect, historical, biased or unavailable
Intuitive decision making
Using a hunch to make decisions, can be used when data is unavailable or unreliable
Advantages of intuitive decision making
Quick process
Encourages innovation and creativity
Helps for survival of a business as it’s quick and effective in a competitive market
Previous effective decisions can be relied on
Disadvantages of intuitive decision making
Difficult to justify and sell
Reliant on experience and expertise
Risk as it’s not based on data
Opportunity cost
cost of one course of action in
terms of the next best alternative foregone
Risks
Chance of incurring misfortune or loss eg, employees going on strike
Is measurable
Uncertainty
Is a situation in which there is a lack of knowledge and
events, outcomes or consequences are unpredictable eg: covid 19,
Decision trees
Model to help businesses make a decision with the cost of decision, probability of success and financial outcome
Advantages of decision trees
- Clearly show the options
available
• Encourages logical thinking
• Allows structured discussions
and comparisons
• Takes into account risk
• May raise alternative options
• Quantifies the outcome of each
decision
• Highlights the likelihood of each
outcome
Disadvantages of decision trees
• Relies heavily on estimates i.e.
probabilities and financial
outcomes
• Doesn’t take into account
qualitative factors
• Estimates may be biased
• May not consider external
influences e.g. if the cost of one
option is substantially higher will
this be affected by interest rates
• Non dynamic – may be out of
date before a decision is reache
Expected values
Financial outcomes from a specific course of action
adjusted to allow for the probability of it
occurring
Net gains
the expected values of a
course of action minus the costs
associated with it
Influences on decision making
MISSION
OBJECTIVES
RESOURCES
EXTERNAL EMVIRONMENT