3. Electoral Systems Flashcards
Example of a safe seat
In 2017 Labour retained Liverpool Walton with 85.7%
Exampe of Marginal Seat
In 2017 SNP won NE Fife by 2 votes
Conservative members of the NO to AV campaign
Theresa May, Kenneth Clarke, George Osborne, David Cameron
Labour members of NO to AV
Over 100MPs Inc. Lindsey Hoyle and Paul Goggin’s
Led by Margaret Becket
What was the main argument against AV?
Would have cost £250 million to implement
‘she needs a new cardiac facility not a new voting system’
Members of Yes! to fairer votes
Led by Nick Clegg and Katy Ghose, supported by Ed Miliband
Fewer Labor MPs, but included Diane Abbott, Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper.
Outcome of 2011 AV referendum
Vote held on 5th May 2011
19.1 million voted, just 41% of electorate
YES 32%
NO 68%
2019 General Election
67% turnout
44% winning party
Amount who chose the winners 29%
When was compulsory voting in Australia, what is turnout?
Introduced in 1924
fine is £12
94% turnout
10% not registered to vote
still and 84.6% turnout
Advantages of FPTP
- Simple to understand
- Quick to form governments
- Produces strong, stable and accountable governments
- MP constituency link
- Encourages moderation
What are the average lengths to form governments in the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands?
UK = 2 days
Belgium = 98 days
Netherlands = 93 days
What happened following Belgium’s 2010 general election?
11 parties won seats but none won over 20.26%, so it took 541 days to form a government which consisted of 6 parties
What name can be used to describe third parties, which have significant leverage?
‘King-makers’
What is another term used to describe the MP-Constituency link?
Dyadic representation
What % of MPs in 2023 represented where they were born, and where they finished secondary school?
49% where they were born
51% where they completed secondary school
What are Belgium’s 3 distinct regions?
- Flemish
- Walloon
- Brussels
How long did it take for the 2010 coalition to form?
5 days
Margret Thatcher’s % vote and % of seats in 1979 and 1983
1979
% vote = 43.9%
% seats = 53.4%
1983
% vote = 42.4%
% seats = 61.1%
How does SV work?
- First preference counted
- If no majority all but top two eliminated
- 2nd preference votes for top two added
- Whoever has most votes wins
Which elections use the Alternative Vote ?
Labour and Lib Dem Leadership
House of Lords by-elections
House of Commons select committee chair
AUS House of Representatives
How does AV work?
- Number as many as you like
- If no majority last candidate eliminated
- Repeats until one candidate reached 50%
Examples of AV elections
2020 Health and Social committee chair decided after 1 round
2020 Defence chair committee decided after 4 rounds
2021 Countess of Mar retired - took 6 rounds to replace
In the 2021 PCC elections how many winners were backed by a minority?
26 winners backed by majority but 1/3 were not
Name some possible coalitions discussed prior to Germany’s 2021 election
- ‘Traffic Light’
- ‘Jamaica’
-‘Kenya’
-‘Germany’
-‘Grand Coalition’
What is the name for the representation provided which has a strong MP constituency link?
Dyadic representation
What % of MPs represent the constituency they were born in? What % represent where they completed secondary school?
49% represent where they were born
51% represent where they completed secondary school
Give an example of a weak mandate
In South Down Shin Fein won 32% of the vote but when turnout of 6.9% factored in they really only received 20.4% of constituents support
In the 2010 GE what % of MPs had a majority mandate?
In the 2010 GE only 39% of MPs had a majority mandate
In the 2019 Scottish GE what % of the vote and how many seats did the SNP receive compared to the other 3 main parties?
SNP won 45% of the vote but 48/59 seats but CON, LIB and LAB collectively received 53.2% of the vote but only 11 seats
How many seats and what proportion of the Vote did conservatives receive in the 2021 Redditch Borough Council Election?
CON won 1/3rd votes but 100% of the councils 9 available seats available
How does the vote share and % of seats won by Labour in the 1974 GE compare to the 2005 GE?
1974 - LAB Minority
37% vote
47% seats
2005 - LAB Majority
35% vote
55% seats
In the 2019 Scottish GE how many votes per seat did the SNP and Lib Dems receive?
SNP - 1 million votes and 48 seats = 26,000 votes per seat
Lib Dems - 3.7 million votes and 11 seats = 330,000 votes per seat
How did the seats and vote won by the SNP and Green and UKIP combined compare in the 2015 GE?
SNP received only 1.5 million votes and won 53 seats in Westminster, whereas UKIP and Green combined received 4.5 million votes but only 2 seats
Which elections did the wrong party win the GE?
1951 and Feb 1974
In 2021 what % of votes were for loosing candidates, and what % were surplus?
43.5% (14.5 million) for loosing candidates
25.5% (8.1 million) surplus
How many safe seats were correctly predicted before the 2019 GE?
316 safe seats correctly predicted before 2019 GE
According to the ERS how long has it been since the average constituency changed hands? How many haven’t changed since 1945 or earlier?
Av. constituency hasn’t changed hands for 42 years
192 constituencies (30%) last changed in 1945 or earlier
What % of seats haven’t changed party in over a century?
65 seats of 10%
In the 2019 GE how many seats changed party?
Only 79 seats (12%)
How did the Lib Dem’s spending in Sheffield Hallam (3 way) compare to the labour safe seat of Knowsley
In Sheffield Hallam Lib Dems spent £12,610, which was more than all the 3 main parties spending combined in the Labour safe seat of Knowsley where the Lib Dems only spent £334
In 2019 how many councillors were automatically elected and how many seats were under contested?
150 councillors automatically elected
154 seats were under contested, meaning one party was guaranteed to win
What % of voters voted tactically in the 2019 GE?
According to YouGov 32% voted tactically in the 2019 GE
Give an example of Unilateral decisions made by parties prior to the 2015 GE?
Farage announced the Brexit party would not stand in any of the 317 seats the conservatives held
Given an example of an electoral pact
3 anti-brexit parties (LD, Plaid Cymru and Green) agreed that in 60 constituencies only the party with the best chance of winning would stand
What would have been the outcome of the 2015 GE if AV had been adopted in 2011?
Would have been more disproportional
What was the main reason Australia adopted AV in 1918?
To stop vote splitting
In the 2021 PCC elections how many winners were backed by a maj. what proportion were not?
26 backed by a majority
1/3 were not
What did Churchill say about worthless votes
“The most worthless vote given for the most worthless candidate”
How did the outcome of the 2021 North-Wales PCC election change after the 2nd round?
After the 1st round Pat Astbury (CON) was winning but went on to lose to Andy Dundobbin (LAB) after the 2nd round
What % of London Mayoral votes have been decided in the first round?
30.8%
In the 2021 PCC elections how many candidates were elected in the second round of voting?
Only 5.1% elected on second preference vote - 2 candidates
In the 2021 London Mayoral election how many 2nd preference votes couldn’t be counted because they were for loosing candidates?
347,772
Was there a significant increase in invalid votes under SV compared to FPP?
May 2021 Local elections (FPP) - 0.8%
2021 PCC (SV) - 2.7%
London Mayor (SV) - 4.3%
Where is AMS used?
- Scottish and Welsh parliament elections
- The Greater London Assembly
- Germany and NZ
How does the Additional Member system work?
You cast two votes - one for constituency member and one for a regional member
In Scotland how many constituency MSP’s are there compared to regional MSP’s?
-73 constituency MSPs (73 cons.)
- 56 regional MSPs (8 regions which each elect 7 candidates)
What method is used to work out the number of regional candidates each party receives?
- The d’hont formula
Votes received - seats
___________________
1
How many constituency and regional MSPs did Labour win in 2021?
Constituency only 2 despite receiving 21.6% vote
Able to win 20 regional seats
If FPP was used in the 2021 Scottish Parliamentary elections what % of seats would the SNP have received?
84.9% seats with only 47.7% of the vote
Advantages of Mixed member systems
- Simple plurality
- MP constituency Link
- More proportional
- Greater choice
Disadvantages of Mixed member system
- Safe seats
- Wasted and tactical votes
- Main parties still dominate
- Small parties miss out if regions not large enough
- Party leaders determine priority
How did concentrated support help the Lib Dems but hinder the greens in the 2021 Welsh Parliament election?
Green Party won more of the popular vote but vote was not concentrated. Lib Dems received fewer votes but one seat, whilst green party gained none
Give some examples of the % of constituency to regional candidates
Germany 50% - 50%
Wales 66% - 33%
South Korea 85% - 15%
Scotland - 56% - 43%
What is the average winners bonus in Wales under AMS? How high was this in 2016?
Avergage is +13.7%
In 2016 this was +16.8%
What is the average winners bonus in Scotland under AMS?
+8.4%
How does the German Bundestag ensure proportionality?
598 constituency members but no limit on how many can be added to ensure the result is proportional
In 2021 137 extra seats were added
Give an example of tactical voting under AMS?
In 2021 Alec Salmond argued regional votes for the SNP would be wasted so votes should vote for ALBA instead. This failed with Alba receiving nor seats.
Give some examples of where closed party list voting is used?
- Eu parliament
- Brazil
- Finland
- Israel
- Netherlands
How proportional was the 2019 EU Parliament vote?
Brexit party received 30.5% of popular vote across 12 regions
Won 29 seats (39.7%)
How many votes would the CON party have received if the 2019 election was carried out under Closed Party List
Vote share - 43.6%
FPP - 365 - 57% seats
CPL - 288 - 45%
How was the Danish Red-Green alliance effected by small constituencies?
Won 6.9% of the vote but only 4% seats
Given 6 levelling seats which took total to 7.4%
How is the Netherlands treated during a GE?
1 big constituency
Give some examples of thresholds which are used to stop extremists
Sweden 4%
Denmark 2%
How does open party list differ from closed party list?
List order still chosen by party leader but any candidate who recives more than 25% vote is moved up
How many parties were on the ballot paper for the 2021 Dutch GE?
37 parties
Where is a fully open list used?
Finland
Where is Single Transferable Vote used?
- Northern Irish assembly
- Irish Local
- Scottish Local
- Rep of Ireland, Malta and Australia
Explain STV
- Rank as many candidates as you want
- must reach quota set by Droop formula to be elected
- 2nd pref votes from surplus ballots than would be wasted on winning candidates redistributed , this can be random (Rep Ireland) or fractional (NI)
- Only the last parcel which created the surplus is transfered
- if no candidate reaches the quota the one who received the lowest number of votes is eliminated and their votes redistributed
What is Bonner Sydrome?
In 1974 Australian Lab candidate Malcolm Colsten narrowly failed to win the last seat in Queensland. Many who voted for liberal party candidate Neville Bonner had Colsten as 2nd preference but only surplus voted were redistributed. Many argued that if main supporters votes had have been examined Colsten would have won.
Why was calculating the outcome of the 2017 Scotish local elections difficult?
There were 1227 council seats and 32 local councils which were being voted upon
How would the outcome of the 2019 GE have been under STV?
Lib Dem
% vote - 11.5%
FPP seat % - 1.7
STV seat % - 9%
Give an example of fewer votes being wasted under STV in Scotland
Under FPP in 2003 - 52% voted for a loosing candidate
In 2007 under STV 74% saw their first preference revive a seat
Example of alphabetical voting
In 2017 Scottish local elections 130 higher placed candidates were elected compared to 27 lower placed
What is non-monotonic?
Loosing candidates may have won if they received fewer 1st preference votes
