2.5 (The Economic Cycle) Flashcards

1
Q

2.5.1 What are the long term trends in economies?

+ which economies grow fastest, why & rate?

+ which economies grow slower & rate?

A
  • they grow
  • growth is not consistent

+ emerging economies as they upgrade tech, human capital etc (6-8%)

+ mature economies (2-2.5%)

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2
Q

Examples of fast growing economies (2024)

+ examples of negative economies (2024)

A

Guyana (43.8%)
India (7.6%)
China (5.2%)

+ Sudan, Ireland, Finland

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3
Q

What are the 4 parts of an economic growth graph?

A

expansion
contraction (recession)
business peak
recessionary trough

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4
Q

What is a boom?

+ what is it marked by for a country?

A

period of increased commercial activity within a business, market, industry or economy as a whole

+ significant GDP growth

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5
Q

What may a boom turn into and what is this?

A

A bubble

when boom extends far beyond the fundamental growth trend in value

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6
Q

What are the 4 potential causes of economic booms?

A

1) Expansionary Monetary Policy: cutting interest rates to boost economic activity

2) Expansionary Fiscal Policy: government increase overall demand

3) Confidence: consumer & firm confidence impacts their decisions

4) Rising Asset Prices: creates a positive wealth effect

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7
Q

Examples of Booms

+ why?

A

1) 1920s in the US
- era of rising production, economies of scale from the Assembly Line
- bubble burst w Wall Street crash

2) China & India
- long period
- high savings & investment and human capital

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8
Q

What is a downturn?

+ possible causes of it?

(what may encourage/exaggerate it?)

A

The end of a boom

+ people become pessimistic & spend less reducing demand
+ businesses may invest less
+ house market

(shocks in the market)

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9
Q

What is a recession?
+ what is it usually defined by?

A

significant, widespread & prolonged downturn in economic activity

+ 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth

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10
Q

What is recovery?

A

Business cycle stage following a recession that is characterised by a sustained period of improving business activity

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11
Q

What can the economic cycle help us to understand?

+ what are its limitations?

A

The factors which could influence the state of the economy

+ it is a model not reality
+ causes of the economic cycle are not fully understood

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12
Q

What is the 1st theory to explain the economic cycle?

+ the effects of this theory

(creator of the theory)

A

Animal Spirits
- how the state of mind of both consumers & producers had impacts on the economy
- attempts to capture the illogical nature of some mood swings

+ heavily influenced policies in mid 1900s

(Maynard Keynes)

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13
Q

What is the 2nd theory to explain the economic cycle?

(creator of the theory)

A

An Alternative Model
- financial institutions which lend money are profit seekers
- after crisis, banks only lend to those who can afford repayment but over time they become more confident & lend to more people
- ‘Minsky Moment’ happens when people realise their debts are unrepayable, panic selling sets in & crisis occurs again

(Minsky)

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14
Q

Indicators of the economy changing
+ examples

A

Leading factors: early signs of direction of economic activity e.g state of confidence

Lagging factors: measures which are slow to reflect the current state of economic activity e.g unemployment

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15
Q

How did the 2008 Financial Crisis occur?

A
  • Investors looking for low-risk, high-reward investment looked to the US housing market
  • as demand increased the banks started to offer loans to people with poor credit scores
  • this caused a housing bubble which burst
  • many people couldn’t afford their mortgage repayments
  • this caused an oversupply of homes causing house prices to drop
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16
Q

What 2 reasons caused the 1920s USA boom to occur?

A

1) + innovations e.g assembly line meant goods could be mass produced
+ this reduces cost which inspires consumerism

2) + credit emerged at this time
+ this allowed consumers to pay for goods in installments
+ this encourages spending & increases demand

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17
Q

2.5.2 What is the circular flow model?

+ what is the households example?

A

An economic model that illustrates how money moves from producers to consumers and back again in and endless loop

+ model households provide labour
+ they receive wages/income for this
+ they then buy goods & services produced by firms
+ firms use this income to pay their workers
(income circulates through the economy)

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18
Q

What are leakages & injections?
(examples?)

+ how do these relate to equilibrium?

A

L: withdrawals from the system
(e.g taxes, savings & imports)

I: investments to the system
(e.g government spending & exports)

+ in theory, at equilibrium, leakages are equal to injections but in reality changes to either would have multiplier effects

19
Q

How is the circular flow model useful & not useful?

A

+ can be used to help guide macro economic policy
+ concept of a ‘multiplier’ is useful in assessing the likely impact of policies on injections & withdrawals

  • households example is a closed system which is not realistic as it doesn’t acknowledge banks, government or other economies to trade with
20
Q

How is Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculated?

+ what are the 3 methods of measuring the economy?

A

By totalling all the factors within the model

+ output method: adding up total value of goods produced
+ income method: adding up the total incomes in an economy
+ expenditure method: adding up all the expenditure in an economy

21
Q

Advantages & Disadvantages of the 3 methods of measuring the economy

A

Output Method
+ relatively easy to work
- doesn’t take people into account

Income Method
+ tells you about people & standard of living
- doesn’t represent all areas of the country

Expenditure Method
+ tells you about cost of living
- neglects non-market activities

22
Q

Main agents and their cash injections & leakages

+ changing circular flows equation

A

Financial institutions
I: investment (I)
L: savings (S)

Government
I: government spending (G)
L: taxation (T)

Rest of the world
I: exports (X)
L: imports (M)

+ (I + G + X = S + T + M)

23
Q

What is inflation?

+ how is it measured & why is CPI better than RPI?

A

sustained increase in the general price level

+ Retail Price Index (RPI):
measures the change in the cost of a representative sample of retail goods and services

+ Consumer Price Index (CPI):
- goods/services which make up a larger proportion of spending are given a larger weighting
- price index calculated which can be compared (annual inflation rate)
- each month prices of the sample goods/services are recorded- represent average spending of UK consumer

24
Q

How has inflation changed since 2016?

+ what are the limitations of CPI?

A

Remained stable around B of E target (2016-19), dips below in 2020, 2022-23 rapidly increases until its over 10% & decreased 2023-24 to around B of E target.

+ only representative of the average household so isn’t relevant for some
+ diff demographics have diff spending patterns
+ housing costs account for approx 16% of index yet this varies between people
+ slow to respond to new goods/services
+ doesn’t include some household costs unlike RPI e.g mortgages

25
What are deflation and disinflation? + what should our rate of inflation be & why? (who are responsible for inflation rates?)
Deflation: sustained fall in the average price level and rise in the value of money Disinflation: fall in the rate of inflation + government set target is 2% - seen as safest way to avoid deflation which may lead to failing companies & mass unemployment - avoids trust in the system being lost (Bank of England and they regularly report to the government - if inflation falls outside of 1% margin of error they must report directly to Chancellor)
26
When did CPI become the primary measure of the annual inflation rate? + uses of RPI
2003 + tax allowances on index-linked securities + cost of living & wage escalation + social housing rent increases + wage rates during employment negotiation
27
What are the 8 categories of CPI? + how is CPI used? -how has the price of a loaf of bread risen from the year 2000 to 2020?
1) Apparel 2) Transportation 3) Education & Communication 4) Recreation 5) Medical Care 6) Food & Beverages 7) Housing 8) Other + more than 700 goods & services in the basket + items added & removed regularly based on consumer spending (e.g air fryers added & hand sanitiser removed in 2024) 2000=£0.52 2020=£1.03 (inflated by x1.9)
28
What are nominal and real values? + how are they used? (real life example of their importance?)
N: unadjusted rate or current price without taking inflation or other factors into account R: adjustments are made for general price level changes over time + both can be used to talk about the value of not only money but wages, share prices & other things of financial value (teacher salaries have had a 2% pay rises since 2010 but over a 5% fall in real value)
29
What is demand-pull inflation? + what are some possible causes of this?
Occurs when demand for goods & services exceeds supply - usually associated with boom phase - businesses will raise prices to profit max + increased availability of credit + lower interest rates + housing market boom (makes people feel wealthier) + increase in government spending + booming US & EU economies (more exporting)
30
What is cost-push inflation? + what is the impact of inflation on: 1) Businesses? 2) Individuals?
Occurs when overall prices increase due to increases in the cost of supply, usually driven by wages & raw materials 1) + Less likely to invest as interest rates will probably be high + workers may demand higher wages + less demand & sales for products + firms may be less price competitive globally + reduction in business confidence leading to possibly less investment 2) + less disposable income & purchasing power + more redundancies or unemployment + difficulties for those on low or fixed incomes + real value of debt decreases
31
2.5.4 How have rates of unemployment changed since 1970s? + what is unemployment like now in the UK in comparison to other countries?
Since 1980s, UK unemployment rate has fluctuated between 4% and 12% - up to 12% during 1980s (Thatcher) - down to 5% during 2000s (housing boom) + now at a rate of 4% but higher in the North than the South generally + Qatar has the lowest UR globally at 0.1% as it is a rapidly developing nation + South Africa has one of the highest UR globally at 32.1%
32
What is: 1) under-employment? 2) seasonal employment? 3) casual employment? 4) long-term unemployment?
1) not having enough paid work or not doing work that makes full use of their skills and abilities 2) temporary employment that will usually last a few months based around a particular season or holiday 3) employment where the employee works on an as-needed basis 4) people who have been unemployed for 12 months of more
33
What are the differences between full-time and part-time employment?
FT: - most common type - typically standard 35-40 hours a week - regular schedule & consistent pay - usually have work benefits PT: - allows them to work fewer hours - often has flexible schedules - hired to meet demands outside of constant workflow
34
What is the claimant count? + what is Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) & - examples of the criteria needed to receive it? (problem with this method?)
One measure of unemployment & counts those people who are eligible to claim Job Seekers' Allowance + introduced in 1996 to replace unemployment benefit + eligible for 6 months before moving into special employment measures - have to have worked as an employee - can't be in full time education - have to have paid NI in the last 2/3 years (omits many people who don't meet all of the criteria necessary)
35
What is the International Labour Organisation's method of measuring unemployment?
Includes all people above a specified age who during a time period were either: 1) without work 2) currently available to work 3) seeking work
36
What is structural unemployment? + how does it occur?
longer-lasting form of unemployment caused by fundamental shifts in the economy & worsened by external factors such as technology, competition & government policy + workers lack the appropriate job skills or live too far from regions where jobs are available & cannot move closer + mismatch between what companies need & workers can offer
37
What are the 4 job sectors?
Primary= farming, fishing, forestry & mining Secondary= manufacturing Tertiary= services (over 70% of UK jobs) Quaternary= research, design & tech
38
What is an example of structural unemployment in the UK + what were the two reasons for this occuring?
Deindustrialisation occured during 1970s & 80s. Rapid decrease in the amount of manufacturing & growth in tertiary & quarternary sectors. Traditionally industries e.g ship building declined. + 1) global shift in manufacturing to e.g China where wages are lower, working hours longer & trade unions sometimes banned + 2) increase in the number of machines (mechanisation)
39
What is Manchester's industrial decline? + which cities also experienced similar declines?
- central part of Industrial Revolution (first industrialised city in world) - centre of world's cotton industry (once responsible for 32% of the world's cotton production= 'cottonopolis') - during 1960s & 70s Mills closed at a rate of almost one a week and by 1980s textile industry of North West had almost vanished + Birmingham (vehicle manufacturing) + Sheffield (steel manufacturing)
40
What is regional unemployment? + example? + what is real wage/classical unemployment?
unemployment in a specific geographical region (characterised by geographical immobility) e.g Port Talbot steel works + unemployment which occurs when trade unions push wages above market-clearing level or when government has pushed minimum wage above market clearing level
41
What is demand-deficient/'cyclical' unemployment? + what usually makes it more sustained?
unemployment which occurs because the AD in the economy has fallen (in recession) which leads to a fall in demand for labour + if wages are 'sticky' so cannot be adjusted as this reduces flexibility for businesses meaning they have to let more people go
42
What is the impact of unemployment on the economy?
Loss of real output to the economy as a whole - real output of economy is below potential output & output lost can never be regained - the longer people are unemployed, the more de-skilled they become reducing potential output
43
What is the impact of unemployment on the government? + evidence which backs this up?
- loss of tax revenues - extra costs of supporting unemployed (welfare, admin costs & increased policing) - high unemployment may lead to increased crime & anti-social behaviour, ill health & family breakdown leading to further costs + Birmingham has highest unemployment rate in UK (7.8%) & 4th highest violent crime rate + Mid-Sussex has lowest unemployment & 5th lowest violent crime rate
44
What is the impact of unemployment on people?
- direct financial cost to unemployed people (difference between previous income & unemployment benefit) - personal costs including stress-related illness & family issues caused by strain