2.5 (The Economic Cycle) Flashcards
2.5.1 What are the long term trends in economies?
+ which economies grow fastest, why & rate?
+ which economies grow slower & rate?
- they grow
- growth is not consistent
+ emerging economies as they upgrade tech, human capital etc (6-8%)
+ mature economies (2-2.5%)
Examples of fast growing economies (2024)
+ examples of negative economies (2024)
Guyana (43.8%)
India (7.6%)
China (5.2%)
+ Sudan, Ireland, Finland
What are the 4 parts of an economic growth graph?
expansion
contraction (recession)
business peak
recessionary trough
What is a boom?
+ what is it marked by for a country?
period of increased commercial activity within a business, market, industry or economy as a whole
+ significant GDP growth
What may a boom turn into and what is this?
A bubble
when boom extends far beyond the fundamental growth trend in value
What are the 4 potential causes of economic booms?
1) Expansionary Monetary Policy: cutting interest rates to boost economic activity
2) Expansionary Fiscal Policy: government increase overall demand
3) Confidence: consumer & firm confidence impacts their decisions
4) Rising Asset Prices: creates a positive wealth effect
Examples of Booms
+ why?
1) 1920s in the US
- era of rising production, economies of scale from the Assembly Line
- bubble burst w Wall Street crash
2) China & India
- long period
- high savings & investment and human capital
What is a downturn?
+ possible causes of it?
(what may encourage/exaggerate it?)
The end of a boom
+ people become pessimistic & spend less reducing demand
+ businesses may invest less
+ house market
(shocks in the market)
What is a recession?
+ what is it usually defined by?
significant, widespread & prolonged downturn in economic activity
+ 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth
What is recovery?
Business cycle stage following a recession that is characterised by a sustained period of improving business activity
What can the economic cycle help us to understand?
+ what are its limitations?
The factors which could influence the state of the economy
+ it is a model not reality
+ causes of the economic cycle are not fully understood
What is the 1st theory to explain the economic cycle?
+ the effects of this theory
(creator of the theory)
Animal Spirits
- how the state of mind of both consumers & producers had impacts on the economy
- attempts to capture the illogical nature of some mood swings
+ heavily influenced policies in mid 1900s
(Maynard Keynes)
What is the 2nd theory to explain the economic cycle?
(creator of the theory)
An Alternative Model
- financial institutions which lend money are profit seekers
- after crisis, banks only lend to those who can afford repayment but over time they become more confident & lend to more people
- ‘Minsky Moment’ happens when people realise their debts are unrepayable, panic selling sets in & crisis occurs again
(Minsky)
Indicators of the economy changing
+ examples
Leading factors: early signs of direction of economic activity e.g state of confidence
Lagging factors: measures which are slow to reflect the current state of economic activity e.g unemployment
How did the 2008 Financial Crisis occur?
- Investors looking for low-risk, high-reward investment looked to the US housing market
- as demand increased the banks started to offer loans to people with poor credit scores
- this caused a housing bubble which burst
- many people couldn’t afford their mortgage repayments
- this caused an oversupply of homes causing house prices to drop
What 2 reasons caused the 1920s USA boom to occur?
1) + innovations e.g assembly line meant goods could be mass produced
+ this reduces cost which inspires consumerism
2) + credit emerged at this time
+ this allowed consumers to pay for goods in installments
+ this encourages spending & increases demand
2.5.2 What is the circular flow model?
+ what is the households example?
An economic model that illustrates how money moves from producers to consumers and back again in and endless loop
+ model households provide labour
+ they receive wages/income for this
+ they then buy goods & services produced by firms
+ firms use this income to pay their workers
(income circulates through the economy)
What are leakages & injections?
(examples?)
+ how do these relate to equilibrium?
L: withdrawals from the system
(e.g taxes, savings & imports)
I: investments to the system
(e.g government spending & exports)
+ in theory, at equilibrium, leakages are equal to injections but in reality changes to either would have multiplier effects
How is the circular flow model useful & not useful?
+ can be used to help guide macro economic policy
+ concept of a ‘multiplier’ is useful in assessing the likely impact of policies on injections & withdrawals
- households example is a closed system which is not realistic as it doesn’t acknowledge banks, government or other economies to trade with
How is Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculated?
+ what are the 3 methods of measuring the economy?
By totalling all the factors within the model
+ output method: adding up total value of goods produced
+ income method: adding up the total incomes in an economy
+ expenditure method: adding up all the expenditure in an economy
Advantages & Disadvantages of the 3 methods of measuring the economy
Output Method
+ relatively easy to work
- doesn’t take people into account
Income Method
+ tells you about people & standard of living
- doesn’t represent all areas of the country
Expenditure Method
+ tells you about cost of living
- neglects non-market activities
Main agents and their cash injections & leakages
+ changing circular flows equation
Financial institutions
I: investment (I)
L: savings (S)
Government
I: government spending (G)
L: taxation (T)
Rest of the world
I: exports (X)
L: imports (M)
+ (I + G + X = S + T + M)
What is inflation?
+ how is it measured & why is CPI better than RPI?
sustained increase in the general price level
+ Retail Price Index (RPI):
measures the change in the cost of a representative sample of retail goods and services
+ Consumer Price Index (CPI):
- goods/services which make up a larger proportion of spending are given a larger weighting
- price index calculated which can be compared (annual inflation rate)
- each month prices of the sample goods/services are recorded- represent average spending of UK consumer
How has inflation changed since 2016?
+ what are the limitations of CPI?
Remained stable around B of E target (2016-19), dips below in 2020, 2022-23 rapidly increases until its over 10% & decreased 2023-24 to around B of E target.
+ only representative of the average household so isn’t relevant for some
+ diff demographics have diff spending patterns
+ housing costs account for approx 16% of index yet this varies between people
+ slow to respond to new goods/services
+ doesn’t include some household costs unlike RPI e.g mortgages