2.2 financial planning Flashcards
what is a sales forecast?
a prediction of future sales volumes and values
what information can businesses use to make a sales forecast?
-market research
-past sales (e.g. time series analysis) -economic forecasts
why is sales forecasting important?
-supports planning
-can improve the validity of cash flow forecasts
-used to determine resource requirements (stock, equipment, finance, promotions)
what are the three main methods of sales forecasting?
-extrapolation
-correlation
-confidence intervals
limitations of sales forecasting:
-sales forecasting requires skill
-market conditions are constantly fluctuating (dynamic)
-lots of data for businesses to consider when constructing sales forecasts
-the nature of the product must be considered
sales forecasting limitations - requires skill, time and the accurate use of timely data
-smaller businesses may particularly lack the experience / specialised workers to construct, analyse and interpret sales forecasts
sales forecasting limitations - market conditions are constantly fluctuating (dynamic)
-sales forecasts will rarely reflect the full range of external influences that can affect future sales,
(eg: volatile customer tastes, the actions of competitors, new market entrants)
-it is difficult to avoid experience bias (eg: opinions of the future based on experiences in the past)
↳ the future rarely repeats the events of the past
sales forecasting limitations - lots of data for businesses to consider when constructing sales forecasts
-internal data, such as previous sales figures, will be a key source of information when constructing forecasts
-choosing the most appropriate external data to support sales forecasts is hard and will require careful evaluation
sales forecasting limitations - the nature of the product must be considered
eg: product may be a fashion item and fashions move quickly
3 factors affecting sales forecasts:
-consumer trends
-economic variables
-competitor actions
consumer trends
-fashions may change from season to season, but most consumer behaviours change over a longer period of time (e.g. the trend towards solar-powered energy)
-demand for certain goods is seasonal
-fashion is often led by celebrities, and their influence can have a short-term impact on sale
issues with consumer fashions
fashions constantly change and can make it very difficult to carry out accurate sales forecasts
economic variables that affect sales forecasting:
economic growth:
increased consumer incomes → higher than forecast sales
inflation:
increase in prices → reduced consumer spending power → sales decrease
unemployment:
higher unemployment (during recession)
→ reduced spending, especially for lifestyle and luxury goods, spending is focused on essentials
exchange rates:
value of UK sterling falls → exports cheaper, businesses that sell products overseas / cater for tourists visiting the UK may adjust their sales forecasts upwards
competitor actions
-hard to predict, but often reason why sales forecasts prove over-optimistic
what must a business do to make revenue?
by satisfying customer demand
how to calculate revenue
selling price x quantity sold
terms for revenue
-sales
-income
-turnover
-takings
which two ways can a business increase revenues? (& examples)
1) increase quantity sold
↳ sales promotion, advertise, expand
2) increase selling price
↳ add value
what are costs?
amounts that a business incurs in order to make goods and/or provide services
why are costs important?
-drain away the profits made by a business
-the difference between making a good and a poor profit margin
-main cause of cash flow problems in business
what are variable costs?
costs that change as output varies
what are fixed costs?
costs which do not change when output varies
how do you calculate total costs?
fixed costs + variable costs
examples of variable costs:
-raw materials
-wages based on hours worked
examples of fixed costs:
-rent
-salaries
-insurance
examples of start up costs:
-furniture
-equipment
-training
semi fixed costs (+examples)
fixed in the short term, but change once a certain level of output is reached
eg: rent (business may need to move to bigger place)
short run costs
refers to the immediate future:
-variable costs are variable and fixed costs are fixed
long run costs
-all costs are variable
-fixed costs will eventually change over time, some fixed costs may fall, whereas others will rise, such as employee salaries.
which costs are easy to estimate & control? (examples)
rent, salaries, advertising