2. Population change- Natural Flashcards
Most countries undertake a census of their population, generally every
10 years.
what is collected during the census of a population (3)
1) data on the age and sex of population
2) other variables, such as numbers of births are collected.
3) Data on the number of immigrants and emigrants are also collected.
These data in the census of the population provide the
necessary information on population change in the country: both by natural increase and net migration
On a global scale; migration has no effect on
population change
Analysis of natural population growth and natural increase, is important for
planning aspects of development of a country.
Policies may be developed to address the factors influencing birth rates, death rates and life expectancy.
In some countries population growth outstrips the countries’
ability to provide for their needs.
These countries try to restrict the birth rates by enforcing anti-natalist policies.
what other countries may offer when they have declining populations
incentives to increase their birth rates by adopting pro-natalist policies.
Populations change naturally because of
the relationship between numbers of persons being born (the crude birth rate) and numbers dying (the crude death rate).
The crude birth rate refers to
the number of live births per 1000 population in a given year.
The crude birth rate is crude because
the number of births is related to the total population without any consideration of the age and sex composition
a count1y’s birth rate is affected by
its age and sex composition.
A country with a high proportion of young adults will have a
high birth rate.
explain population growth in Mali and Finland
The median age of the population of Mali in West Africa in 2009 was 15.6 and the percentage of the population in the 0-14 age group was 42.9.
The corresponding figures for Finland were 42 and 17.9.
Mali has a birth rate of 49.2 per 1000 and Finland, 10.4.
Moreover, given the size of the young population, population growth in Mali may continue to be high.
what birth rates are considered to be high
Birth rates of 30 and above are considered to be high.
what birth rates are considered to be low
Birth rates of less than 18 per 1000 are considered low
example of caribbean countries birth rates in 2009
- Barbados had a birth rate of 12.6
- Trinidad and Tobago, 13.2
- Jamaica 20.4 per 1000.
what causes countries to have low birth rate (2)
1) Countries with a low proportion of women
2) a small proportion of young adults
what causes countries to have high birth rate (2)
1) a high proportion of young adults (especially women)
2) countries where there is opposition to contraception
countries with a low proportion of women will have a
low birth rate
culture and social customs that influence birth rate (4)
1) religion
2) the age of marriage
3) the status of women
4) the population policies adopted by countries
where there is there a strong opposition to contraception
in some countries ,where a large proportion of the population comprises Roman Catholics or Muslims, birth rates are high.
This is a generalization that docs not always hold true and there arc notable exceptions because of the many factors that affect a country’s birth rate
Over 90% of the population of Italy are Roman Catholics but Italy has one of the lowest birth rates (8.2 per 1000) in Europe.
the country with the lowest birth rate in Europe
Italy
how the level of education in the country and especially the level among women affects the birth rate
Where women have access to educational opportunities and arc involved in what the International Labour Organization (ILO) describes as ‘decent’ work, they limit their family size.
The decisions of such women who work full time during the child bearing years, are influenced by government policies such as funded health and child care benefits. For example, Scandinavian countries have more generous benefits for families with children than Italy and the birth rate in Sweden is 50 per cent higher than in Italy
The decisions of women who work full time during the child bearing years, are influenced by
government policies such as funded health and child care benefits
what influences birth rate (3)
- the population
- culture and social customs
- level of education in the country (especially among women)
The birth rate is crude because
its denominator contains males as well as females who are not in the child bearing age group
why the birth rate is not useful for the purpose of comparison
Because of differences in age and sex composition across the world, the birth rate is not useful for the purpose of comparison
what is more useful than the birth rate
Far more useful is the fertility rate which measures reproduction among the child bearing group
The total fertility rate is
the average number of children that a woman would bear if she lived her full reproductive lifetime
In a count1y with a total fertility rate of two, how many children would a woman would have on average during her lifetime
on average, two children during her lifetime.
It may seem that if a woman has two children during her lifetime she would be able to replace herself and her husband. However,
allowances must be made for those women who do not have children and for infants and other deaths in the population
The replacement fertility rate is considered to be between 2.1 and 2.3 or even higher, depending on the mortality rate.
replacement fertility rate is
the rate at which children must be born to replace those dying in the population
The death or mortality rate is also expressed as
deaths per 1000 persons of a population in a year. This is called a ‘crude’ death rate
crude death rate is
The total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people alive in the society.
where are mortality rates higher?
Generally, mortality rates are higher in less developed than more developed countries
from the able 2.2 showing the death rate for selected countries.
it is clear that
the countries in the Caribbean have a lower death rate than those in more economically developed countries such as Italy and the United States of America
countries in the Caribbean have a lower death rate than those in more economically developed countries such as Italy and the United States of America but these rates are not meaningful for comparative purposes because
the age structure of these countries differs.
Countries with a high proportion of young adults will have a lower death rate than countries with an ageing population. The proportion of the population aged 65 years and over in Italy (20%) is twice that of Barbados.
to overcome this problem, the death rate is calculated for different age groups. This is the age specific death rate
age-specific death rate is
the number of deaths per 1000 of a population per year of a specific age group
The infant mortality rate is
the deaths in the first year of life
The infant mortality rate is important because
improvements in health and health services have had the most significant impact on these ages.
The infant mortality rate in Mali is 102.5 per 1000 live births, the rate in Italy is 5.5
death rate is dependent on?
age structure
medicine and sanitation
social conditions
what caused life expectancy at birth or the number of years an individual is expected to live or their lifespan to increase and cause low death rates?
- modern medicine and improvements in sanitation
- social conditions- better diets, better housing.
some countries are still failing despite improvements in medicine, sanitation and social conditions are those that
are affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic
eg of where the countries affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic has caused life expectancy to fall
sub-Saharan Africa
Two thirds of all people infected with HIV/AIDS live in sub-Saharan Africa and the virus has affected health, education, livelihoods and the workplace.
Life expectancy at birth in Botswana fell from 65 years in 1990-1995 to 40 in 2000-2005.
The epidemic is also spreading rapidly in Asia
The natural increase is
The difference between birth rates and death rates. Increases or decreases in the population resulting from migration are not included.
what is not included in natural increase of a population
Increases or decreases in the population resulting from migration
calculate the natural increase of Jamaica in 2009
the birth rate in Jamaica in 2009 was 20.4 per 1000 and the death rate, 6.4. Its rate of natural increase was 14 per 1000.
expressed as a percentage; 1.4% annually.
the natural increase is usually expressed as
a percentage
The natural increase in Germany is
0.2% and without immigration its population would be shrinking
a country is experiencing zero population growth when
When a country’s birth plus immigration are equal to deaths plus emigration
Immigration means
Migration to a new location
eg-they immigrated from mexico
Emigration means
Migration from a location
eg- they migrated to mexico
eg of countries experiencing zero population growth
- Germany
- Japan
It is useful to know how quickly a population is growing and one method to do so is by
calculating it’s doubling time
doubling time is
The number of years needed to double a population by itself, if the present growth is maintained
How to calculate doubling time
This can be roughly estimated by dividing 70, the natural logarithm of 2, by the percentage growth rate:
t= 70/k (growth rate as a percentage)
Jamaica with a growth rate of 1.4% will have a doubling time of what?
70/1.4 = 50 years
A belief that a rapid population growth would retard development has caused several countries to
implement policies to restrict growth
examples of countries that implemented policies to restrict growth
China
which country that implemented policies to restrict growth was the most successful
China
