2 - Determination of Exchange Rates Flashcards

1
Q

Exchange rate

E.g. $1.5:Euro

A

The price of one country’s currency in terms of another

-1 Euro will buy $1.5

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2
Q

Spot vs Forward rate

A

Spot: price at which currencies are traded for immediate delivery
Forward: price at which foreign exchange is quoted for delivery at a future date

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3
Q

Two forces determine the price of a foreign currency in terms of a domestic currency

A
  1. Demand for a foreign currency

2. Supply of a foreign currency

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4
Q

Demand for a foreign currency: e.g. Euro

A
  • Derived from the demand for foreign country’s goods, services, and financial assets
  • E.g. when Americans demand German goods, they pay in euros, so they need to exchange dollars for euros
  • At higher exchange rates, Americans demand less euros and vice versa
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5
Q

Supply of a foreign currency: E.g. Euro

A
  • Derived from the foreign country’s demand for local goods, services and financial assets
  • E.g. when German consumers demand US goods, they must convert euros to dollars, which increases the supply of euros in the USA
  • At higher exchange rates, Germans supply more euros and vice versa
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6
Q

Bid vs ask rate

A

Bid rate: rate dealers are willing to buy foreign currency

Ask rate: rate dealers are willing to sell foreign currency

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7
Q

Formula for calculating appreciation/depreciation of foreign currency (euro) against domestic currency (dollar)

A

= (e1 - e0) / e0
where e0 = old dollar value of euro
and e1 = new

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8
Q

Factor that affect the equilibrium exchange rate (i.e. cause a SHIFT in the curve)

A
  • Relative inflation rates
  • Relative interest rates
  • Relative economic growth rates
  • Political and economic risk
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9
Q

The role of expectations

A

Currency values are forward looking, and therefore depend on current events and currency supply and demand, as well as FORECASTS about future exchange rate movements

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10
Q

Economic factors (3) that affect a currency’s value

A
  1. Usefulness of domestic currency as a store of value (depends on rate of inflation)
  2. Usefulness of domestic currency as a store of liquidity (depends on volume of transactions in that currency)
  3. Demand for assets denominated in that currency
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11
Q

Advantages of a STRONG domestic currency

A
  • Cheaper imported goods and services
  • Lower import prices = lower production cost = lower inflation
  • Low cost of foreign investment
  • Strong currency attracts foreign capital which keeps the interest rate low
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12
Q

Disadvantages of a STRONG domestic currency

A
  • Exports become less competitive
  • Domestic firms face strong competition from low price foreign imports
  • Job loss
  • Reduces foreign investment at home
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13
Q

Why do governments intervene in foreign exchange markets?

A

They can prefer overvalued or undervalued or correctly value currency depending on their economic goals:

  1. Growth
  2. Employment
  3. Stable prices
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14
Q

Mechanisms of government intervention

A

-Purchases and sales of foreign currencies by the central bank
E.g. If the FED wants to raise the value of the dollar against the euro, it will buy dollars with euros
If the ECB wants to reduce the value of euro, it will sell euros in the FX market

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15
Q

Sterilised vs unsterilised intervention: US example

A
  • If the FED wants to raise the value of the dollar against the euro, it will buy dollars with euros - example of unsterilised intervention
  • A problem with this strategy is that is will reduce money supply, putting downward pressure on price
  • To neutralise/sterilise this, the FED may purchase T-bills (open market operations) from the banks, increasing the money supply
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16
Q
Long term effects of sterilisation:
What is the impact of holding down the value of a currency through foreign exchange market intervention:
-on foreign exchange reserves?
-on inflation?
-on export competitiveness?
-on living standards?
A
  • Must buy up foreign currencies in the market
  • The result is increased foreign reserves and an expanded domestic MS, which has the potential to increase inflation
  • At the same time, the lower exchange rates boost export competitiveness, but at the expense of a lower living standard (foreign goods and services more expensive)
17
Q

Effect of sterilisation: some Asian countries attempt to sterilise their FX market intervention by selling bonds.
What are the likely consequences of sterilisation on interest rates? on exchange rates in the long term? on export competitiveness?

A
  • Sales of gov securities to the market would drive down the price of gov bonds and drive up domestic interest rates
  • Higher interest rates, in turn, would attract more foreign capital, which would boost the value of domestic currency
  • Thus, in the long run, sterilised intervention will not affect exchange rates and export competitiveness