1.8 Prediction And Management

Question 1

What is the difference between predicting an event and forecasting an event? How do countries respond to them?

Answer 1

• prediction is a binary statement pertaining to wether a hazard will or will not occur at a given place
• forecasting is giving the probability that a hazard will take place in a larger area over a longer window of time
• forecasting is more accurate because it is less specific, however if it is forecasted for there to be an earthquake in the next 40 years in one area the government is less likely to take action as they don’t see the threat to be immediate e.g. Egypt didn’t prepare the infrastructure well as earthquakes are infrequent

Question 2

In the hazard management cycle, what does mitigation refer to? What is the role of emergency planners in this step?

Answer 2

• identifying particular hazards and taking steps to reduce their impact
• this means the population is less vulnerable
• this can be done by land zoning, developing and enforcing infrastructure and building protective structures
• emergency planners take a large role

Question 3

In the hazard management cycle, what does preparation refer to? What is the role of emergency planners in this step?

Answer 3

• facilitating the response and providing risk reduction strategies. Eg. Evacuation routes, having early warning systems, stockpiling equipment
• emergency planners take a central role in preparing an area for a hazard

Question 4

In the hazard management cycle, what does response refer to?

Answer 4

• coping with initial problems of an event, where the main aim is to save lives and reduce economic loss
• this involves search and rescue efforts, evacuations and ensuring the efficiency of critical services

Question 5

In the hazard management cycle, what does recovery refer to?

Answer 5

• short term can be the immediate needs of the people and injured
• long term it refers to reducing future vulnerability and restoring infrastructure & services to a better standard than before

Question 6

What hazards can scientists more effectively predict or forecast and why?

Answer 6

• volcanoes are the most accurate predictions because seismic activity underground can be measured to see the movement of magma within a volcano, they also tend to have a longer speed of onset meaning people can evacuate in time
• earthquakes ( and therefore tsunamis) are virtually impossible to predict be Jade they have such a short speed of onset

Question 7

Why can predicting hazards be hard, and why are forecasts easier?

Answer 7

• increased pressure and temperature is found underground meaning it can be hard to get accurate measurements of plate activity, extreme conditions skew results and most earthquake hypocentres are deep underground so cannot be predicting in time ( e.g. can’t see a build up of tectonic strain anywhere)
• forecasting is easier, but less effective, because they are generic in magnitude and can cover large geographical areas with a long timescale. This is more reliable as you have more scope to be correct but therefore it is less accurate

Question 8

Describe Parks Model to compare the response to hazards, comparing areas at different stages of development.

Answer 8

DEVELOPED COUNTRY eg. Japan

• rapid speed of onset, however QOL does not deteriorate very much due to good response to the hazard and infrastructure investments that mitigate the risk
• reliefs and rehabilitation is provided quickly and efficiently to the population
• recover takes this country to a better QOL than before because reconstruction makes the country more prepared

DEVELOPING COUNTRY eg. Haiti

• slow speed of onset as community is unprepared and a lack of government action means the deterioration of QOL continues past the initial hazard event
• QOL is at its lowest and many people are living in temporary accommodation and shelters
• eventually the country starts to recover to better standards of QOL but still below that of the countries original QOL before the hazard, this is due to a lack of funding available to make the area more prepared and to mitigate against the hazard therefore making the population more vulnerable than before